General Investing and Economics Discussion - No Politics

[Deleted member 2897]

One of my favorite positions since I've been able to invest:

Fun fact, from 2000 to 2015, Microsoft's stock returned a net 0. Its especially because of their move into cloud computing and subscription licensing that their business has become much more profitable and predictable.

 

[Skeptic]

If you REALLY want to get mad...



Also, "vital defense" seem like a LOT of latitude for our decision makers to waste our money.

It was worded so specifically for one grant. Boeing.

What are some ideas for an investor learning during the beginning of a recession? I am trying to read up on how to handle my investments in the current climate. I am not well versed at all but want to make sure I put my investments in the correct locations.

I am thinking of purchasing physical property with my non retirement funds later this year as a separate long term investment.

In a Folgers can in the back yard.

 

[Skeptic]

If you REALLY want to get mad...



Also, "vital defense" seem like a LOT of latitude for our decision makers to waste our money.

In there specifically for Boeing since it handles military craft, including the venerable B-52. I am not sure how to read that comment. It sounds almost like a threat. We'll give Boeing $17 billion and the rest we'll just piss away. (That's just frustration. I am all for pouring money into the country -- and I read today there might be two more rounds before this virus is beaten -- I just wish they would let Warren Buffett handle it.

 

[Skeptic]

They'll just say, "Oh, my 'third party advisor' bought that. I had no idea..."

I have a former newspaper editor friend who gave me the answer to all this, as suggested by one of his fellow editors: The secret is to elect Congress for life. And three days after the election call them all in and tell them they have three months to live.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

In there specifically for Boeing since it handles military craft, including the venerable B-52. I am not sure how to read that comment. It sounds almost like a threat. We'll give Boeing $17 billion and the rest we'll just piss away. (That's just frustration. I am all for pouring money into the country -- and I read today there might be two more rounds before this virus is beaten -- I just wish they would let Warren Buffett handle it.

We're already at round 3 I think. I suspect we'll have multiple additional rounds. Especially if the first check doesn't come until May and its only like $1200 per adult. Thats peanuts. Instead of giving a meaningful amount to individuals (and its our tax money anyway), they've created a long laundry list of pet projects and corporate handouts like they always do. I am sure there are a few critical industries that we ned to help, but there are bankruptcy laws that allow companies to restructure and remain in operation while they do. You always ask for trouble when you send a ton of money to a company. Any responsible CEO is going to cling to that like their life depends on it in a time like this and hunker down. What we need to be doing in a consumer based economy is to make unemployment close to their old pay, go month by month renewing it, and then a general cash pay out once a month to every one else. Because there are a lot of people who still have a job but are working less hours. Taking a bunch of money and giving it to a company who is then going to stick it in a vault and try and save as much as they can to survive doesn't accomplish much. Better to let them restructure so they're in a much better position when they do start up, and THEN give them money to help them restart.

 

[LibertyTurns]

I just wish they would let Warren Buffett handle it.

My Lord, is there anyone in America that profited more from government regulations than Buffet? We might as well roll out these experts: Tim Geithner, Ben Bernanke, Larry Summers, Mike Froman, Robert Rubin, Alan Greenspan & Jacob Lew.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Mortgage applications drop by the most since the Great Recession.

https://money.yahoo.com/mortgage-applications-drop-by-largest-amount-since-2009-205818351.html

I think weekly or monthly jobless numbers come out tomorrow. The **** has hit the fan, but nobody’s posted the pictures yet.

 

[Skeptic]

My Lord, is there anyone in America that profited more from government regulations than Buffet? We might as well roll out these experts: Tim Geithner, Ben Bernanke, Larry Summers, Mike Froman, Robert Rubin, Alan Greenspan & Jacob Lew.

If that's what it takes.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Mortgage applications drop by the most since the Great Recession.

https://money.yahoo.com/mortgage-applications-drop-by-largest-amount-since-2009-205818351.html

I think weekly or monthly jobless numbers come out tomorrow. The **** has hit the fan, but nobody’s posted the pictures yet.

3.3m, significantly worse than anybody was expecting. About 5x larger than the previous all time record. At that rate, the unemployment rate will quadruple to 10-12% in 1 month.

This does not include self employed people, who do factor into employment numbers, so my 10-12% unemployment guess for a month out could end up being low.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

I'll probably jinx myself, but here is the current title on my screen: "Record shattering 3.28 million workers claim unemployment. Dow surges 500 points."

 

[LibertyTurns]

If that's what it takes.

That was a list of economic imbeciles. I wouldn’t enlist them to walk my dog and I don’t like my dog.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

That was a list of economic imbeciles. I wouldn’t enlist them to walk my dog and I don’t like my dog.

Dude, if you don't like your dog, then you don't like anybody.

 

[LibertyTurns]

Dude, if you don't like your dog, then you don't like anybody.

It’s actually my wife’s dog I don’t like. The “family” dog is loved by all.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

You can track the federal reserve balance sheet here. Only goes through March 18th right now - not sure how often they update it. They currently sit on about $5 Trillion of assets from back then. You can bet its more than $1 Trillion higher right now. You'll notice it took like 8 years after the end of the last recession before the Fed was able to start selling bonds back into the market again. There simply isn't a way to sell several trillion worth. Its a financial house of cards.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said today that unemployment claims were not relevant. LOL.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

The aid package isn't final, so we'll see when we get something passed, but apparently Mnuchin said when it came to the corporate bailouts that they would be taking equity stakes in the companies.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/mnuchi...n-airlines-in-exchange-for-grants-11585229047

I mean, if you're not just going to hand them free money, a loan won't do crap. All that will do is hang a debt weight around the companies' necks. So equity is really the only answer if you're not going to play with monopoly money. Hopefully once the economy turns around they can then get their money back. Will the airline executives go for it? It dilutes them, but so does a bankruptcy filing, although that typically wipes out the bondholders and you have control over stock issuance back to yourself.

 

[Skeptic]

The aid package isn't final, so we'll see when we get something passed, but apparently Mnuchin said when it came to the corporate bailouts that they would be taking equity stakes in the companies.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/mnuchi...n-airlines-in-exchange-for-grants-11585229047

I mean, if you're not just going to hand them free money, a loan won't do crap. All that will do is hang a debt weight around the companies' necks. So equity is really the only answer if you're not going to play with monopoly money. Hopefully once the economy turns around they can then get their money back. Will the airline executives go for it? It dilutes them, but so does a bankruptcy filing, although that typically wipes out the bondholders and you have control over stock issuance back to yourself.

Speaking of equity -- and I hope Mnuchin meant it, though he works for a guy who probably doesn't even understand the concept -- anybody which cruise lines are being touted for handouts, and who owns them? Meaning, I know one is a Norwegian ship, but what about the rest? I don't know enough about it argue it, but I seriously doubt we would be allowed to hand foreign companies billions of dollars.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Speaking of equity -- and I hope Mnuchin meant it, though he works for a guy who probably doesn't even understand the concept -- anybody which cruise lines are being touted for handouts, and who owns them? Meaning, I know one is a Norwegian ship, but what about the rest? I don't know enough about it argue it, but I seriously doubt we would be allowed to hand foreign companies billions of dollars.

They're all registered overseas. Most of their employees are foreign workers. We should be telling them good luck IMHO.

 

[Skeptic]

They're all registered overseas. Most of their employees are foreign workers. We should be telling them good luck IMHO.

Yes, and I hope the House is tough enough to buck the man in the WH who desperately wants it ... I guess they must disembark in Miami and stay at his joint sometimes. I think this bill is desperately needed, even to the point of waving off such corruption and graft. Maybe enough can get to people and small businesses who need it.

 

[Skeptic]

Yes, and I hope the House is tough enough to buck the man in the WH who desperately wants it ... I guess they must disembark in Miami and stay at his joint sometimes. I think this bill is desperately needed, even to the point of waving off such corruption and graft. Maybe enough can get to people and small businesses who need it.

I guess it might be a never mind. Just saw a Washington Post story that reports them out of the package. Good.