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That’s a false understanding of the problem. The median increase in wages across our economy is 2%.
General Investing and Economics Discussion - No Politics
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That’s a false understanding of the problem. The median increase in wages across our economy is 2%.
bobongo
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Back to the investing discussion...
I read today something interesting about the market bottom. It said we still haven't had capitulation in the market. The author pointed out that the major giants that have been driving the market, like Tesla, Microsoft, Amazon, Apple, and Google, have not fallen nearly as much as the market in general (the S&P or Dow indices). I looked them up, and all of them except Google have only fallen to what they were 6 months ago. Google has fallen a little more, but still not quite as much as the general market. He said people are hanging on to these more than most, but that capitulation will come when they finally throw in the towel on those stocks, too, and that only some time after that happens should we expect a bottom to form in this market. He suggested the June 2016 low (a little over 2,000 on the S&P) a likely target for the "first bear low", whatever that means. I think we could ultimately go a good bit lower.
I link the article below. Lots of technical mumbo-jumbo, but his basic idea is clear.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/43...-capitulation-in-u-s-stocks?mod=mw_quote_news
I read today something interesting about the market bottom. It said we still haven't had capitulation in the market. The author pointed out that the major giants that have been driving the market, like Tesla, Microsoft, Amazon, Apple, and Google, have not fallen nearly as much as the market in general (the S&P or Dow indices). I looked them up, and all of them except Google have only fallen to what they were 6 months ago. Google has fallen a little more, but still not quite as much as the general market. He said people are hanging on to these more than most, but that capitulation will come when they finally throw in the towel on those stocks, too, and that only some time after that happens should we expect a bottom to form in this market. He suggested the June 2016 low (a little over 2,000 on the S&P) a likely target for the "first bear low", whatever that means. I think we could ultimately go a good bit lower.
I link the article below. Lots of technical mumbo-jumbo, but his basic idea is clear.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/43...-capitulation-in-u-s-stocks?mod=mw_quote_news
Deleted member 2897
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Yea I think the 15,000 coin flip and 1 in 4 chance of 12,000 are both still pretty reasonable expectations.
bobongo
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One thing about the low is that I think the market will probably have an "L-shaped" recovery, which means the general area of the low will be around for some time to jump on, waiting for a dip. I won't even start to get interested until it hits below S&P 2,000, and I think it will probably go below 1,70o eventually which correlates to about your coin flip 15,000 on the Dow. It wouldn't shock me if it hit 12,000 before it's over. We're looking at 2 million+ in the job claims number next Thursday. The old record was 800,000.
My theory about investing in the stock market is that you shouldn't dive in until there is a major downturn. Wait for a really, really good entry point because although it is lucrative, it is dangerous. Take the danger out of it by waiting until it tanks, then go whole hog. Fool around with gold or bonds or something until that time and then pounce. But I'm retired, so that colors my thinking quite a bit.
I won't pick stocks, just get an index fund and (hopefully) ride it up again. It's been too high for my blood for some time now. I'll admit I missed out on a good bit of the ride by paring back over the last two years and putting money in bonds until I finally sold my last 20% about 6 weeks or so ago.
I did notice that cruise lines had a big day up today - very telling on a day the market went down 4%. I'd say they may have already hit bottom, then bounced off the overshoot. I think they've lost about 80 - 90% of their price from the high. How low can they go?
LibertyTurns
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You’re correct. Over-regulation and fraud, waste & abuse caused rest.
LibertyTurns
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Crickets. Did anyone expect anything else out of Lotta Bull?
Lotta Booze
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Um. I responded. Are you having that much trouble with reading comprehension?
I actually responded with a medical journal and sources to scientists and peer reviewed papers. Yet all you can provide is a bunch of speculation and nonsense. Your response is literally, "anyone hear out of Lotta Bull?". Good one.
I thought that Georgia Tech men were people who prided themselves in prioritizing science and evidence and you've made it clear that many Georgia Tech graduates don't value that very much. Instead they love being the arrogant contrarians that's gotten them so far in life but is ultimately hollow and wrong. And not based in any evidence whatsoever.
Instead they like to spread conspiracy theories that the US National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine have described as "Conspiracy theories do nothing but create fear, rumours, and prejudice that jeopardise our global collaboration in the fight against this virus"
But please, continue arguing against all of these people. You just continue to cement yourself as a joke. Keep digging. It's unfortunate that you are this unable to deal with basic facts and reality that you are an embarrassment to the Georgia Institute of Technology.
Lotta Booze
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Awww....crickets. Did anyone else expect anything else out of little Lib?
He's just a sensitive snowflake who needs some attention every so often. He's not so different than a teenage girl on social media who needs validation every few minutes. It's like watering a little sensitive daisy. That's what Lib is, a little daisy.
Deleted member 2897
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Goldman Sachs now is forecasting -24% GDP. It’s really amazing to me that we’ve been speculating about this for almost 2 months on this board, and it just now finally is showing up in actual estimates. That’s the first realistic one I’ve read.
inGTwetrust
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Interesting, given their CEO just got a 20% raise.
Deleted member 2897
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Wall Street is probably doing well with all of the record trading volumes. Some industries are raking it in.
bobongo
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The one thing that could turn all this around fast is production of a vaccine. It's been said many times that it will take up to 18 months, but I wonder if this will be fast tracked to be available by fall, or at least winter. The WHO said there are 20 of them in the works right now. I don't have any pharmaceutical background to say that, but it just seems to me...
And, maybe this malaria drug will be effective. Lots of unknowns right now, and the unknowns are rattling the market more than anything.
LibertyTurns
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from your source conveniently skip over the statement “2019-nCov had a similar receptor-binding domain structure to SARS-CoV .... our phylogenic analysis suggests that an animal sold at the Wuhan seafood market might represent an intermediate host facilitating the emergence of the virus in humans”
You’re brilliant.
Lotta Booze
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Are you treating that as proof the Chinese government created it? Or are you changing your conspiracy theory now?
inGTwetrust
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I get it. Will just be interesting to see what happens down the road. Do they find themselves in a position needing to downsize? Not a good look. Not that that guy or the execs care.
Deleted member 2897
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That's generally why I hate bailouts. Because if you remember, Goldman Sachs got a cash infusion during the Great Recession. Sad really. Where is the humility? Imagine what people's impressions of that company would be if just 1 thing happened - he donated his raise to a local food shelter or charity. Missed opportunities everywhere.
LibertyTurns
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No, not at all. You source claimed it came from Wuhan, likely emanated from an animal, Chinese research scientists are know to sell these animals in the local markets, etc. Honestly, I’m really not sure why you’re taking the side of the Chinese based on previous outbreaks they’ve had with similar diseases from these same facilities. Very odd stance.
Lotta Booze
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I'm not taking the "side of the Chinese" by acknowledging that your conspiracy is not based in a shred of evidence. But your dishonest arguments have gotten old. Done with you
Deleted member 2897
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A couple minutes after opening, futures immediately were halted as they hit their -5% down limit.
Deleted member 2897
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https://www.msn.com/en-us/finance/m...-30-25-fed-e2-80-99s-bullard-says/ar-BB11y3ER
Local Federal Reserve Chairman predicts 30% unemployment and 50% drop in GDP. Wow.
I continue to be shocked our stock market is anywhere near where it is when we have no visibility into how long it may take to come out of this. There’s a lot of faith out there for us to be even in the same zip code that we’re in.
Local Federal Reserve Chairman predicts 30% unemployment and 50% drop in GDP. Wow.
I continue to be shocked our stock market is anywhere near where it is when we have no visibility into how long it may take to come out of this. There’s a lot of faith out there for us to be even in the same zip code that we’re in.