GaTech Win Total from the AJC

GTJason

GTJason

Helluva Engineer
Messages
1,579
The odds makers know dawg fans are dumb and will take the over on 9. It's interesting a good running back gets you to 9 wins but a good QB only gets you to 7 for all of the lovers of the "Pro Style" offense...
 

Oldgoldandwhite

Helluva Engineer
Messages
5,768
Have not seen the pups schedule, but if they dodge the LSU/Bama duo, they should easily win 9 games. We have a tougher schedule than a lot of people realize. Still think 8+ is likely.
 

FightWinDrink

Helluva Engineer
Messages
2,341
Oldgoldandwhite said:
Have not seen the pups schedule, but if they dodge the LSU/Bama duo, they should easily win 9 games. We have a tougher schedule than a lot of people realize. Still think 8+ is likely.
Click to expand...
They play Bama at home this year. We're their only P5 nonconf opponent

Author says that it's a safe bet that they'll beat Spurrier this year which I find kind of funny
 

RLR

Jolly Good Fellow
Messages
355
This is an all-time low for what has to be the most incompetent newspaper in any U.S. metro. I know it's only sports and doesn't really matter & his final conclusion isn't that ridiculous. But, the level of ignorance, stupidity, and complete lack of substance makes this article less credible than a North Korean Press Release.

The logic of 10 wins -
  • New offensive coordinator + usual (early season) hiccup from UGA = clear 4-0 start;
  • Two tough games (ALA home, Tenn road) = two games we could easily lose, so we'll definitely win at least 1;
  • three SEC games (KY, FLA, MO) = ...folks, i can't make this up: "I’m thinking the hiccup could come from among [this] trio . . . But let’s say the Bulldogs win all three"
If all 3 of these things happen, aka the best case scenario, then UGA would still have to win 2 of 3 between:
  1. At Auburn (early favorites over UGA)
  2. Georgia Southern (this may be a win, but it's not cakewalk)
  3. At GT (THWG)

The logic of 6 wins -
  1. 3 Losses to ND, FSU, Clemson because "Like Georgia, the Jackets play in the weaker of their league’s divisions and are favored to win it. But also like Georgia, the Jackets play the two best teams in the opposite division, . . .and also have a game at Notre Dame. Tech could plausibly lose all three of those games." (He groups UGA's hardest in conference=out-of-divison games by chronological order. Then, he pairs those games (@Auburn/ALA) with other toss-up games (@TN, @GT) and concludes that since UGA has a chance at winning in each of those games, then they will definitely win at least 1 of the 2. However, for GT, he groups the 2 hard out of division games (FSU/@Clemson) + @ND by their difficulty, not order. Since it's plausible GT can lose to each of those 3 teams, they will lose to all 3 of those teams...... He's saying the same thing for his analysis of GT and UGA. He even supports his arguments by comparing the similarities in the two schedules. And then, inexplainably, he reaches the exact opposite conclusion. And he does this for every single piece of support for his argument
  2. GT analysis: "Tech’s stiffest comp in the Coastal figures to be Virginia Tech and North Carolina and both games are at home so make those a split for four wins." VS. UGA analysis: "I’m thinking the hiccup could come from among the trio of Missouri at home, Florida in Jacksonville and Kentucky at home. But let’s say the Bulldogs win all three"
  3. GT analysis Duke and Miami are not expected to be very good but those are always tricky road games so make that another split. VS UGA analysis A 4-0 start for UGA is a safe bet with Louisiana-Monroe, at Vandy, South Carolina and Southern U.
  4. GT vs. UGA matchup: The Bulldogs will be plenty motivated because they lost last year and because they will be playing against Paul Johnson, who has a good QB.
 
Eastman

Eastman

Helluva Engineer
Messages
1,289
Location
Columbia, SC
Instead of "pre-season football analysis" it should be called "pre-season SWAG from a dwag fan" which is the more accurate description.
 
Northeast Stinger

Northeast Stinger

Helluva Engineer
Messages
10,803
RLR said:
This is an all-time low for what has to be the most incompetent newspaper in any U.S. metro. I know it's only sports and doesn't really matter & his final conclusion isn't that ridiculous. But, the level of ignorance, stupidity, and complete lack of substance makes this article less credible than a North Korean Press Release.

The logic of 10 wins -
  • New offensive coordinator + usual (early season) hiccup from UGA = clear 4-0 start;
  • Two tough games (ALA home, Tenn road) = two games we could easily lose, so we'll definitely win at least 1;
  • three SEC games (KY, FLA, MO) = ...folks, i can't make this up: "I’m thinking the hiccup could come from among [this] trio . . . But let’s say the Bulldogs win all three"
If all 3 of these things happen, aka the best case scenario, then UGA would still have to win 2 of 3 between:
  1. At Auburn (early favorites over UGA)
  2. Georgia Southern (this may be a win, but it's not cakewalk)
  3. At GT (THWG)

The logic of 6 wins -
  1. 3 Losses to ND, FSU, Clemson because "Like Georgia, the Jackets play in the weaker of their league’s divisions and are favored to win it. But also like Georgia, the Jackets play the two best teams in the opposite division, . . .and also have a game at Notre Dame. Tech could plausibly lose all three of those games." (He groups UGA's hardest in conference=out-of-divison games by chronological order. Then, he pairs those games (@Auburn/ALA) with other toss-up games (@TN, @GT) and concludes that since UGA has a chance at winning in each of those games, then they will definitely win at least 1 of the 2. However, for GT, he groups the 2 hard out of division games (FSU/@Clemson) + @ND by their difficulty, not order. Since it's plausible GT can lose to each of those 3 teams, they will lose to all 3 of those teams...... He's saying the same thing for his analysis of GT and UGA. He even supports his arguments by comparing the similarities in the two schedules. And then, inexplainably, he reaches the exact opposite conclusion. And he does this for every single piece of support for his argument
  2. GT analysis: "Tech’s stiffest comp in the Coastal figures to be Virginia Tech and North Carolina and both games are at home so make those a split for four wins." VS. UGA analysis: "I’m thinking the hiccup could come from among the trio of Missouri at home, Florida in Jacksonville and Kentucky at home. But let’s say the Bulldogs win all three"
  3. GT analysis Duke and Miami are not expected to be very good but those are always tricky road games so make that another split. VS UGA analysis A 4-0 start for UGA is a safe bet with Louisiana-Monroe, at Vandy, South Carolina and Southern U.
  4. GT vs. UGA matchup: The Bulldogs will be plenty motivated because they lost last year and because they will be playing against Paul Johnson, who has a good QB.
Click to expand...
I think you are exactly on point. It is not his logic that bothers me it is that he inexplicably (as you point out) uses one kind of logic for uga and another kind of logic for GT. The "logic' he uses for uga is colored by unbridled optimism. The "logic" he uses for Tech is colored by "if it can go wrong it will go wrong."
 
deeeznutz

deeeznutz

Helluva Engineer
Messages
2,329
One thing I noticed in the article was that the sports book is really trying to get bets on our under, they clearly know that's a losing bet.
 
Top