for those of you who prognosticate....

[4shotB]

and participate in the score predictions, do you believe a FB game is a dependent or indepent event? I hesitate to pick the Jackets in this game given our track record against them. Isn't this the prudent approach as gamblers usually say to never bet against a streak?? or, are the investor's right..previous performance is no guarantee of future results????

of course it is all in great fun to say that GT wins 45 -10 becuase we are all Tech fans and we hate the U and they don't have good engineering and all the usual drivel....but I am extremely more interested in people what people who have skin in the game (i.e. actual gamblers who are putting cash on the line) have to say about the 2 opposing philosophies above. TIA.

 

[bke1984]

I mean history can matter, but not always. Does it matter that we beat Miami in the Orange Bowl in 05 when they were ranked 3rd? No...

Would it matter if your entire senior class had lost three in a row against the Canes going in? Sure...players may play with a different level of intensity, etc.

As for a "streak" affecting the outcome from a betting standpoint I think that's just crazy. Gamblers folly....if the ball landed on red 20 times in a row it must land on black next time right? Nope...independent.

 

[4shotB]

As for a "streak" affecting the outcome from a betting standpoint I think that's just crazy. Gamblers folly....if the ball landed on red 20 times in a row it must land on black next time right? Nope...independent.

I don't gamble but I thought the gambler's adage was to bet that the streak continues..i.e. if the ball lands on red 20 times, keep betting red. Thus i thought (perhaps mistakenly) that someone who bets might consider these events to be dependent.

 

[herb]

I don't gamble but I thought the gambler's adage was to bet that the streak continues..i.e. if the ball lands on red 20 times, keep betting red. Thus i thought (perhaps mistakenly) that someone who bets might consider these events to be dependent.

You are correct, there are those who believe that, and that is why the book always wins in the long run

 

[Connell62]

Wanna talk about streaks? GT is 4-0 ATS (Against the Spread) this year, and if I'm not mistaken, we've run off a string of 7 straight dating back to last year. We've been covering this year without playing all that well.

 

[4shotB]

Wanna talk about streaks? GT is 4-0 ATS (Against the Spread) this year, and if I'm not mistaken, we've run off a string of 7 straight dating back to last year. We've been covering this year without playing all that well.

That is indeed interesting. However, as you are aware, you can cover (see UT game) without winning.I think my main point of curiosity comes from reading the various message boards over the years and the weekly prediction contests. It seems that no matter the opponent nor the spread, the majority of responses will pick GT to win. Of course, there may be rare exceptions to this ike Clemson at Death Valley this year. I get that we are all fans but I would be interested in seeing another component of the "pick the game" contests - what your "fun" prediction is AND what it would be if placing an actual wager of $1,000 or so on the game. I'm curious if the two answers would vary much. I think I am fascinated by this simply because I don't gamble. But I would have a hard time ignoring the history in this series if I were to do so. (Perhaps that speaks more of my ignorance of the individual matchups that will occur on the field this Saturday that will probably have more influence on the results than the previous x years worth of data.)

 

[RyanS12]

Wanna talk about streaks? GT is 4-0 ATS (Against the Spread) this year, and if I'm not mistaken, we've run off a string of 7 straight dating back to last year. We've been covering this year without playing all that well.

This is the streak I've been riding since last year

 

[4shotB]

This is the streak I've been riding since last year

so, do you just bet the spread then?

 

[Connell62]

In many cases, picking us to win is much easier than betting the point spread. For example, if you bet the $1000 on GT to win against UNC, it wouldn't have paid $1000 - prob more like $700.

We have covered well since CPJ arrived, but it's odd that Vegas hasn't caught up to us yet this year. As I mentioned, we've covered by double digit the last two and haven't come close to peaking (IMO)

 

[first&ten]

Todays spread is Tech+6.5 I would take Tech to cover, but not win the game.

 

[OldJacketFan]

An old gambler's adage, the dice have no memory!

 

[Jean-Baptiste Rochambeau]

Wanna talk about streaks? GT is 4-0 ATS (Against the Spread) this year, and if I'm not mistaken, we've run off a string of 7 straight dating back to last year. We've been covering this year without playing all that well.

I don't want to cover. I want to win.

 

[bensaysitathome]

I think it's so much different when you're dealing with people, though. Especially 18-22 year old kids. There was a reason UGA beat us 7 in a row, and it wasn't always because they fielded the better team. The streak was mental, and it wasn't a series of isolated events.

 

[OldJacketFan]

I think it's so much different when you're dealing with people, though. Especially 18-22 year old kids. There was a reason UGA beat us 7 in a row, and it wasn't always because they fielded the better team. The streak was mental, and it wasn't a series of isolated events.

Good point and yet it goes well beyond the college ranks. The Nats and Indians showed that this week! Cleveland is obviously a better team than the Yankees. had a 2-0 lead in a best of 5 and the Yankee mystique caught up with them!

 

[Jean-Baptiste Rochambeau]

Todays spread is Tech+6.5 I would take Tech to cover, but not win the game.

The opening line was 7. The betting public moved it to 5.5, and indication that the ignorant masses sensed that seven points was too many for Miami to absorb. But thru the week, the line has moved back to 6.5, showing some love for Miami (or disdain for Tech's abilities). Usually the "pro money" gets bet today in quantity. I thought that Tech + 5 was the number, but what do I know? Nada. We need a tough game, a close game that we have to scrap for just to see if we have that mental toughness needed to refuse to lose. We failed with Tennessee. We need to be tested again.

 

[first&ten]

The opening line was 7. The betting public moved it to 5.5, and indication that the ignorant masses sensed that seven points was too many for Miami to absorb. But thru the week, the line has moved back to 6.5, showing some love for Miami (or disdain for Tech's abilities). Usually the "pro money" gets bet today in quantity. I thought that Tech + 5 was the number, but what do I know? Nada. We need a tough game, a close game that we have to scrap for just to see if we have that mental toughness needed to refuse to lose. We failed with Tennessee. We need to be tested again.

It was difficult to get over that Tenn. game. I'm still trying to figure how tech lost that game. You are right, this is the biggest test for us so far . A Tech win down there could really set us up for a very good season. A loss might be devastatingto this young team.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

We are playing the best football in the first third of the season that I have ever seen us play under Coach Paul Johnson. In years past, even if we won, there were always like 50-75+ missed assignments. People going the wrong way, and so on. I have seen almost none of that this year. Opposing players will defeat blocks at times and outplay us, but that is something you can work on. Our defense has played much differently, a direct result of changes Roof has been making to their play calling over the last 7 games. And we have beat the spread 7 straight games now.

I think the line is appropriate. Miami has the better athletes, and it is a home game where the stadium will be packed with tens of dozens of fans. They have very athletic, but also pretty disciplined players across the field. However, we've been a different team so far this year, and we bring in our arsenal lots of plays we couldn't run with JT5 under center. So far we've been doing the opposite this year - after going 3-0 against the SEC East last year, we lost to Tennessee. After losing to Pittsburgh and North Carolina many years in a row, we beat both of them. Our time has come to end the current streak against Miami. They are injured, sore, a step slower after a hard game last week, and every year they crap the bed at some point. Its our time to instigate said crapping. Every year we win at least 1 game (sometimes 2) that we weren't supposed to win. Last year was @ Virginia Tech and @ Georgia. Miami is this year's drawing for us. We've had way too many turnovers and we haven't gotten enough in return - the same stuff we were saying when heading up to Virginia Tech. Its our turn for one of those days.

 

[redmule]

Streaks are screwy things. Seems like we didn't win in Chapel Hill from 1946-1998 or something like that. I think in a couple of times in the last 80's, we were their only win. Then we beat them like they were sheep up there for a long time. There was a similar streak against Duke in Durham that ended when Roof was a senior (IIRC). For some reason the last few years, we have been the pivot point in Miami's year. If we play them early, then they begin to fall apart right after they play us. If they suck early in the year, we catch them just as they have decided to play football. Hasn't UNC had their number for most of the last decade? I think that if we both execute well, we will win a close game.

 

[bke1984]

It was difficult to get over that Tenn. game. I'm still trying to figure how tech lost that game. You are right, this is the biggest test for us so far . A Tech win down there could really set us up for a very good season. A loss might be devastatingto this young team.

Young? Seems like everyone calls us young every year. 19 of our 22 starters on O and D are JR's or SR's. Now is the prime time to step up and win...

 

[Jean-Baptiste Rochambeau]

It was difficult to get over that Tenn. game. I'm still trying to figure how tech lost that game. You are right, this is the biggest test for us so far . A Tech win down there could really set us up for a very good season. A loss might be devastatingto this young team.

You may be right, but for some reason I don't see this team as a team that will get devastated. They certainly had a chance to put their collective heads down after Mills departed, Jordan gets hurt, and the loss to Tennessee, but they didn't. They came back, have improved week by week, and now have a chance to really make a statement. I just get the feeling they want to play, and they want to play well. And they see the season as an opportunity to go out seven more times and play better each time.