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Football Outsiders and GT's remaining games

Discussion in 'Georgia Tech Football' started by AE 87, Oct 23, 2013.

  1. AE 87

    AE 87 Helluva Engineer

    Okay, after 6, 7 games, we have enough data to start drawing some conclusions. I'm a fan of footballoutsiders.com. Their stats are opponent adjusted, rather than simply raw stats like yards/game. They have two main ways of ranking teams, S&P+ and FEI. They combine these into an F/+ which they use as their final team ranking.

    S&P+ = play-by-play success rate based on down and distance and a points per play normalized to expectation given yard line plus a drive efficiency factor.

    FEI = Fremeau Efficiency Index, drive success rate normalized to expectation given opponent.

    In my opinion, they bias their F/+ too much toward the FEI, but I'm philosophically attracted to their methodology. I like S&P+ to tell how well the offenses and defenses are playing, but I wouldn't be surprised if FEI and F/+ handle the intangibles better for predicting outcomes.

    That being said, after Syracuse, GT's F/+ ranking is 32. UVA is 62 and Pitt is 56. CU is 27 and U[sic]Ga is 17. From this perspective, we should handle our next two games fairly easily, and should be pretty competitive with CU.

    Now if we look at the S&P+ ranks, I think we have reason to be even a bit more optimistic. We're 16th in offense. U[sic]Ga is 12 and CU is 33. On Defense S&P+, we're 48, georgie is 31, and CU is 19. If we continue to play more consistently, I think we will be fairly competitive against these teams.

    UVA's offense has been bad, real bad, 100th in S&P+. We could very well shut them out too.

    Of course, it's always possible that we lose focus again, but I'm now confident about the next two and optimistic about at least one of the big guys.
    poodleface, awbuzz and SoCal_GT_Fan like this.
  2. awbuzz

    awbuzz Helluva Engineer

    Please be right!

    Oh, and let the big guy we beat be UGA.
    ( will take win over Clemson too... :)
  3. Tempest_12

    Tempest_12 Ramblin' Wreck

    Why settle for just one? Let's take em both down.
  4. OldJacketFan

    OldJacketFan Helluva Engineer

    IF Tech can pull off wins against Clempson and GA a lot of folks would sit up and take notice! From recruits to alums to sidewalk fans to the national media it would be a huge positive for Tech!
  5. AE 87

    AE 87 Helluva Engineer

    This week's FEI (not my favorite stat but may be get there) is interesting.
    GT 22
    Pitt 50, CU 42, U[sic]Ga 17
    [past games: Duke 27, UNC 48, VPI 16, d'oh U 11, BYU 6, Syracuse 90, UVA 57]

    What's interesting about these numbers is that they seem to reflect farily accurately our past games. When you consider that we should've beat VPI, the dwags are in play. 9 and 3 baby
  6. bat_082994

    bat_082994 Helluva Engineer

    What does this stat represent? I've never even heard of FEI
  7. cyptomcat

    cyptomcat Helluva Engineer

  8. bat_082994

    bat_082994 Helluva Engineer


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