Stats First 2017 PPDvsPWR5 Rankings

AE 87

AE 87

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Okay, so once again, this is a calculated stat based on games against power 5 opponents. I only calculate it for teams which have played more than 2 Pwr 5 opponents.

In the past I have ranked teams based on Diff PPD, their Offensive PPD minus their Defensive PPD. Motivated by the Domination Ratio thread, I've also ranked them based on the Ratio of OPPD/DPPD (again only Pwr5 opponents).

Sorted by Differential PPD
upload_2017-10-15_21-59-17.png


Sorted by Ratio of PPD

upload_2017-10-15_21-59-56.png


By this stat, our Offense is ranked #13 and our D is ranked #23.
 
tech_wreck47

tech_wreck47

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AE 87 said:
Okay, so once again, this is a calculated stat based on games against power 5 opponents. I only calculate it for teams which have played more than 2 Pwr 5 opponents.

In the past I have ranked teams based on Diff PPD, their Offensive PPD minus their Defensive PPD. Motivated by the Domination Ratio thread, I've also ranked them based on the Ratio of OPPD/DPPD (again only Pwr5 opponents).

Sorted by Differential PPD
View attachment 2987

Sorted by Ratio of PPD

View attachment 2988

By this stat, our Offense is ranked #13 and our D is ranked #23.
Click to expand...
Do you remember what we finished last year by this metric system?
 
AE 87

AE 87

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tech_wreck47 said:
Do you remember what we finished last year by this metric system?
Click to expand...

Don't remember, but I can look it up. I didn't calculate after the bowl games, but after the regular season (week 13), we were #24 Off, #40 Def, and #33 Diff PPD.
 
AE 87

AE 87

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In another thread, someone raised a question about the predictive power of this stat.

I offer the following table as interesting in this regard. Note, it does involve a bit of a lie since I calculated final scores on the basis of 12 drives each even for past games that were not 12 drives each. Nevertheless, for GT's score, I averaged our current OPPD with the opponent's current DPPD and multiplied by 12, and I did comparably for the Opponent's score.

upload_2017-10-16_7-45-43.png


TIFWIW
 
Andewa

Andewa

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Thanks for these stats man. These really are the only relevant statistics when comparing offensive and defensive performance!
 
AE 87

AE 87

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@bwelbo started a thread on Domination Ratio which ranks teams by the Ratio of Yards/Game Earned over Yards/Game allowed. While taking the ratio accounts for different tempo and hence different number of drives/game, this stat, like most all raw stats, includes all games and so doesn't account for strength of schedule. It's the nature of the beast with raw stats that we just need to be aware of.

During the discussion in that thread some, raised the question of whether a yards/play ratio might be a better stat than the yards/game ratio. I began to calculate that using only games against Pwr5 opponents. Limiting the opponents to Pwr5 helps adjust for strength of schedule some, but I think that we get closer to comparability when teams play at least 3 Pwr5 opponents.

Traditionally, I've used Differential PPD (Off PPD - Def PPD) for my team rankings, but as you can see above, I've also calculated it by ratio. We can now compare these four rankings.

So, starting with my Diff PPD top 25, I've also tabulated their ranking in PPD Ratio, YPG Ratio, and YPP Ratio.

upload_2017-10-16_12-47-4.png


There seems to be some decent agreement among these rankings for several teams and then some significant strange ones (I'm looking at you TCU). Anyway, I thought it might be worth discussing what people think about the pros and cons of these various rankings.
 
iceeater1969

iceeater1969

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AE 87 said:
In another thread, someone raised a question about the predictive power of this stat.

I offer the following table as interesting in this regard. Note, it does involve a bit of a lie since I calculated final scores on the basis of 12 drives each even for past games that were not 12 drives each. Nevertheless, for GT's score, I averaged our current OPPD with the opponent's current DPPD and multiplied by 12, and I did comparably for the Opponent's score.

View attachment 2991

TIFWIW
Click to expand...
Does the uga 21.8-33.5 mean ga tech gets to be Pitt or UNC?
 
Jmonty71

Jmonty71

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AE 87 said:
Okay, so once again, this is a calculated stat based on games against power 5 opponents. I only calculate it for teams which have played more than 2 Pwr 5 opponents.

In the past I have ranked teams based on Diff PPD, their Offensive PPD minus their Defensive PPD. Motivated by the Domination Ratio thread, I've also ranked them based on the Ratio of OPPD/DPPD (again only Pwr5 opponents).

Sorted by Differential PPD
View attachment 2987

Sorted by Ratio of PPD

View attachment 2988

By this stat, our Offense is ranked #13 and our D is ranked #23.
Click to expand...
The stats are nice and all. But, when it comes down to it. We are just a 3-2 team, hoping that we don't fumble the night away against Wake.
 
iceeater1969

iceeater1969

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AE 87 said:
I'm sorry, but I have no idea what this question means. I suspect a joke may have passed me by, but, if so, I didn't get it.
Click to expand...
Not a joke
Reading the ratios and scores for gt unc is 32.5-20.5 with a game score of gt 33 unc 7.
The gt - uga ratio is 21.8-33.5. Does This means a score of 7 for gt and 36 for uga? If that's correct does it say the game will not be close a k a Pittsburgh or UNC. .

If so I don't like your model. Perhaps we could win some games and uga could loose some games to make your model be palatable. I think your model is Predicting an *** whipping at BFS while the board is full of comments about how we are 4 seconds from perfect.
 
Last edited:
AE 87

AE 87

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iceeater1969 said:
Not a joke
Reading the ratios and scores for gt unc is 32.5-20.5 with a game score of gt 33 unc 7.
The gt - uga ratio is 21.8-33.5. Does This means a score of 7 for gt and 36 for uga? If that's correct does it say the game will not be close a k a Pittsburgh or UNC. .

If so I don't like your model. Perhaps we could win some games and uga could loose some games to make your model be palatable. I think your model is Predicting an *** whipping at BFS while the board is full of comments about how we are 4 seconds from perfect.
Click to expand...

Okay, I'm still not sure that I understand your question, but it's likely because my chart was unclear. I posted projected scores based on a 12 drive game. So, the current PPD stats would suggest that GT would beat UNC 32.5 to 20.5, or 33 to 21. The actual score was 35 to 7, so our D did better in that game than their overall statistic would suggest. Similarly, the projected score against Pitt was about 33-18 while the actual score was 35 to 17. That's not bad. The projected score using ppd data would suggest the we'd play d'oh U to a 23 to 23 tie, but the actual score was 25-24. Now, we'll never know if our offense would've scored a TD if we had had that 1st drive of the second half (which our KR team scored), but it's still pretty close.

So, to get to your last question, the answer is no. It's not projecting a score of 36 to 7 but about 34 to 22, with georgie still projected to win. Sorry for the confusion.
 
iceeater1969

iceeater1969

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AE 87 said:
Okay, I'm still not sure that I understand your question, but it's likely because my chart was unclear. I posted projected scores based on a 12 drive game. So, the current PPD stats would suggest that GT would beat UNC 32.5 to 20.5, or 33 to 21. The actual score was 35 to 7, so our D did better in that game than their overall statistic would suggest. Similarly, the projected score against Pitt was about 33-18 while the actual score was 35 to 17. That's not bad. The projected score using ppd data would suggest the we'd play d'oh U to a 23 to 23 tie, but the actual score was 25-24. Now, we'll never know if our offense would've scored a TD if we had had that 1st drive of the second half (which our KR team scored), but it's still pretty close.

So, to get to your last question, the answer is no. It's not projecting a score of 36 to 7 but about 34 to 22, with georgie still projected to win. Sorry for the confusion.
Click to expand...
Thanks . I like that there is not an xxx whipping being predicted.
 
Treb1982

Treb1982

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I'll take 7-4 with two losses being by a total of two points. However I am much more optimistic about the game @ Clemson... That would be a great win for our team. Also would still keep us alive in the ACC.
 
awbuzz

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Thanks @AE 87

Each stat tells a story. Regarding us, GT, it shows how CLOSE we are to being a Top 20 (15) team. However the only stat thatt matters at the end of the game is points scored.

C'est la vie of a GT Sports fan.
 
Augusta_Jacket

Augusta_Jacket

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awbuzz said:
Thanks @AE 87

Each stat tells a story. Regarding us, GT, it shows how CLOSE we are to being a Top 20 (15) team. However the only stat thatt matters at the end of the game is points scored.

C'est la vie of a GT Sports fan.
Click to expand...

In reality, had we beaten UT and UM, we'd likely be in the top 10 right now, if for no other reason than for ESPN to hype a big matchup vs Clemson.
 
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