Finishing Strong

[FredJacket]

If we go 5-4 to finish the ACC schedule, and finish 2 games below .500, does 5-1 (splitting uGA) get us in? My initial guess is it that it wouldn't.

That's part of that 3rd scenario I suggested. We'd have to be a true "bubble team" in that case. 32-24 overall.. 14-16 in the ACC. We'd need to win 1 (probably 2) games in the ACC tournament to really "help". ...but as with any bubble team, so many other factors would play in.

 

[Lagrangejacket]

Looking at the Warren Nolan RPI predictions- the RPI predictions have us going 6-3 in ACC play and 5-1 out of conference (splitting UGA). If we do that, we will be at #39 in the RPI and 33-23 (15-15 ACC). If we finish that way - 11-4 in our next 15 - I think we'd be right on the bubble. I also think it's a very generous prediction.

I see a more likely finish 5-4 in ACC play and 4-2 out-of-conference, which would put us at 31-25 (14-16), with an RPI in the mid 40s. I think that has us sitting at home, barring a great run in the ACCT. Even if we finish 33-23, I think we'd need to win the play-in game in the tournament + 1 more to play our way in, depending on what other teams do, of course.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

If we go 5-4 to finish the ACC schedule, and finish 2 games below .500, does 5-1 (splitting uGA) get us in? My initial guess is it that it wouldn't.

What really affects the bubble every year is how many teams win their conferences who wouldn't otherwise make the NCAAs. Every year there are several of those who win their conference over a legitimate NCAA tourney team in their conference.

This is all too hard for me to figure. But it is clear that we control our destiny if we win out. We (probably) won't so it will depend a lot on those other teams taking up bubble spots.

I think the NCAA committee should limit the number of teams from any conference (SEC or ACC). The ACC history in recent years has not been good (too lazy to look it up).

Even if we get in as a 3 seed, we'll probably end up at UF again and out of it. That's what happens to most 3 seeds. Hosting is a massive advantage which is earned by a season of good play.

 

[FredJacket]

With 27 wins, Ga Tech has matched its win total from 2017 with at least 10 games remaining (8 regular season plus at least 2 ACCT games). Last year, the final strength of schedule (Warren Nolan) was 30th. It is pretty safe to say this season SOS will be top 20... probably top 15 (currently #12). The ACC win total (11) also matches 2017's total with 6 ACC games remaining.

This is improvement... thank goodness! A backslide would have been excruciating.

Along the "finishing strong" theme... the time is now. Frankly, there was only one time this season where the team showed the ability to string together quality play and get "strong" results. It was the 9 game stretch in late March/early April where team was 7-2 that included the sweep of Mia and the big series win v FSU. Both of those series were at home. The rest of the season it was a pattern of wins here and there... with too many road losses scattered in. So.. in order to really finish strong these last 8 games, the team will have to do something it has not managed to do all year...
1) Beat UGA
2) Win a road series (at UVA)
3) Win a series over a top 4 team in the ACC (Duke). Ga Tech's record v the top 3 (UNC, NCST, Clem) is an underwhelming 1-8. Small caveat... schedulers did us no favors, did they? We had to play all those elite ACC teams on the road. At least Duke has to come to Russ Chandler.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

With 27 wins, Ga Tech has matched its win total from 2017 with at least 10 games remaining (8 regular season plus at least 2 ACCT games). Last year, the final strength of schedule (Warren Nolan) was 30th. It is pretty safe to say this season SOS will be top 20... probably top 15 (currently #12). The ACC win total (11) also matches 2017's total with 6 ACC games remaining.

This is improvement... thank goodness! A backslide would have been excruciating.

Along the "finishing strong" theme... the time is now. Frankly, there was only one time this season where the team showed the ability to string together quality play and get "strong" results. It was the 9 game stretch in late March/early April where team was 7-2 that included the sweep of Mia and the big series win v FSU. Both of those series were at home. The rest of the season it was a pattern of wins here and there... with too many road losses scattered in. So.. in order to really finish strong these last 8 games, the team will have to do something it has not managed to do all year...
1) Beat UGA
2) Win a road series (at UVA)
3) Win a series over a top 4 team in the ACC (Duke). Ga Tech's record v the top 3 (UNC, NCST, Clem) is an underwhelming 1-8. Small caveat... schedulers did us no favors, did they? We had to play all those elite ACC teams on the road. At least Duke has to come to Russ Chandler.

I am still on the #Fredoptimism train.

 

[MWBATL]

I am still on the #Fredoptimism train.

I respect both you and @FredJacket for being able to stay on that train. I fell off a while back and have tried my best just to shut up rather than constantly bi**h about things.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

I respect both you and @FredJacket for being able to stay on that train. I fell off a while back and have tried my best just to shut up rather than constantly bi**h about things.

It isn’t easy LOL. He keeps me going. We could have easily lost every game against Radford. That's turrbl. But we didn’t. So that’s not turrbl LOL.

 

[FredJacket]

I respect both you and @FredJacket for being able to stay on that train. I fell off a while back and have tried my best just to shut up rather than constantly bi**h about things.

It isn’t easy LOL. He keeps me going. We could have easily lost every game against Radford. That's turrbl. But we didn’t. So that’s not turrbl LOL.

You guys are funny. I'll take the "good pub"... if that's what it is. If I put all my thoughts to the keyboard... you'd sing a different tune about me. It's pretty easy (for me) to control that, though... or at least temper it.

I agree the "Radford Experience" was not reassuring at all.

 

[65Jacket]

Virginia will win or sweep us, that is my fear and expectation. For some reason, we can't play on the road.

 

[dawgbasher]

Going to the store early this morning. Fresh out of #FredOptimism. Need a quick jolt before the UGAg game.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Going to the store early this morning. Fresh out of #FredOptimism. Need a quick jolt before the UGAg game.

Hope it was the liquor store. Here's some optimism. We control our destiny. If we don't lose again this year, we'll win the CWS.

 

[FredJacket]

Unfortunately... Ga Tech did not "finish strong" over the last half of the season. It was very nice to get a series win over Duke (a top 10 team) and one of the better teams in the conference. The one thing that will haunt this team in hindsight... is what is still inexplicable to me (unless fluky is an explanation)... but massive failure on the road in conference. Ga Tech was swept twice on the road and never won a road series. ACC road record was 3-12. Hard to believe/understand it. In contrast, Ga Tech won every home series... with one sweep. ACC home record 11-4. I'd say 2 more conference road wins would be enough to have us in the NCAA tournament. Obviously... other wins would have been nice too (i.e UGA).

The major disappointment (especially when compared to 2017) is how the team just could not take full advantage of the huge improvement with the starting pitching. A mildly better bullpen and more consistent "timely" hitting would have been enough to capture those few wins I mentioned above. So close.... yet....

...the bright side. Season is not over. The same team with the great starting pitching and solid offense can actually string together the wins next week at ACCT to win the whole thing. Not suggesting we're in a favorable position... but I am pretty sure UNC knows they cannot just roll the ball out there and beat us.