Finishing Strong

[FredJacket]

The ACC schedule is halfway complete... the regular season is approaching 60% complete.

At one point (after NC State series), the record sat at 13-11 overall and near the bottom of the conference; and it felt like a real fork in road. After winning 7 of the last 9, this team sits at 20-13... and poised to put together a good push in the ACC and position themselves favorably for the NCAA tournament.

The ACC is what it is... no "easy" weekends. Although, the 2nd half schedule in conference does appear to be slightly easier than the games behind us. With 3 of the 5 on the road... that tightens the easy/hard delta a little.

There are 23 games remaining. 15 ACC and 8 OOC. The only road games remaining on the schedule are those 9 ACC road games. That leaves 6 ACC games and 7 OOC games scheduled at home... and the 1 "neutral" site game against UGA at SunTrust.

Besides the 2 games against UGA (#6 RPI)... the remaining OOC opponents are all currently ranked 70+ in RPI. The highest being tonight's opponent (Ga State).

Compared to expectations... (pre-season), I gotta say, the sky is really the limit right now for this team. They have an opportunity here to blow away those expectations. Their margin of error remains pretty thin... so, don't want to count any chickens yet.

My opinion on keys to a strong finish are twofold (and tied for 1st):

- Find some more depth in bullpen. Not comfortable relying on Curry, Thomas, English, and Hurter to "never" have a true "bad" outing. It is bound to happen and the bullpen needs to be prepared. If you can stop bleeding in those cases.. the offense has proven time and time again they are capable of scoring a lot....and in bunches. I want Carpenter healed (see 'get key guys healthy' below)

- Get key guys healthy (corollary...no new injuries). Who knows how long Murray will be sidelined; but when he returns...need him to be right... so it is for good. I literally cringe/turn my head watching English run the bases. I have to hit the "I believe" button that it isn't something that will suddenly get worse or is one goofy step away from long-term injury. How cool would it be for Kel Johnson to get in on some of the action? I hope he can find away back and be a contributor. I assume Hall (as has been rumored) is out for season.

Massey's predicted record...as of today (if I understand the output properly) has Ga Tech finishing 34-22. That would be 14-9 the rest of the way. I'll take that... but I'm greedy. We can do better than that!

Go Jackets!!!

 

[tatertot1]

Just keep winning is all I say,and finish strong of course and don't look back on the losses be better than you were yesterday

 

[dawgbasher]

I'd like to see Guldberg continue to get more playing time. I think he has a big upside. Fast & contact hitter. Not afraid when the lights come on. Will need pop in the bottom of the lineup come tourney/playoff time. Just not sure why this kid is overlooked.

 

[MWBATL]

My own guess was 35-21 (17-13). That includes us going 9-6 in league, 1-1 vs UGa and 5-1 vs everyone else (if I did the math right).

I would love to finish a game or two better than that, especially in the league. I would dearly love to finish in one of the Top 4 spots since they get preference in the ACC Tournament.

 

[crl85]

This is much more enjoyable than recent years. Not only are we in contention to win the conference, but we have the pitching to go deep in the NCAA tournament. We have not had that in a long time.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

I agree, we are trending the right way and pitching is coming on better than it has in years. We are leading the ACC in a bunch of offensive stats. Tonight's second mid-week game is a throw away since we are not playing our normal starters in so many different positions.

A sweep of Pitt would be really really nice and is doable. We could get swept since it's baseball but I think we win the series.

 

[65Jacket]

Tonight's loss to GSU did nothing to help our momentum and and cost us a much needed win when tournament picks come up.

 

[senoiajacket]

Wow, I just can’t shake the feeling of impending doom after the PITT series. I was soooo sure we turned the corner after Miami & FSU.

I was optimistically hoping for 10-5 the rest of the way after FSU with 9-6 seeming very obtainable.

Today I see us very possibly losing all 4 of the remaing series. NC is 7-2 at home, winners of 7 of their last 9. Wake just took care of their business, sweeping BC on the road (allowing them 1 run in the process) and taking 2 of 3 from Puke before that. UVA is still scuffling & has Louisville and Clemson before us. They are only 5-4 at home including series with BC & VT, so maybe we can hold our own up there. Duke seems for real and will likely be fighting for a top 4 ACC spot. They have lost one series so far (to WF) but do have big home series with NC & NCST left.

I am fighting against being a “bad fan” and getting really negative about our chances the rest of the way, but having a hard time with it today.

 

[FredJacket]

Wow, I just can’t shake the feeling of impending doom after the PITT series. I was soooo sure we turned the corner after Miami & FSU.

I was optimistically hoping for 10-5 the rest of the way after FSU with 9-6 seeming very obtainable.

Today I see us very possibly losing all 4 of the remaing series. NC is 7-2 at home, winners of 7 of their last 9. Wake just took care of their business, sweeping BC on the road (allowing them 1 run in the process) and taking 2 of 3 from Puke before that. UVA is still scuffling & has Louisville and Clemson before us. They are only 5-4 at home including series with BC & VT, so maybe we can hold our own up there. Duke seems for real and will likely be fighting for a top 4 ACC spot. They have lost one series so far (to WF) but do have big home series with NC & NCST left.

I am fighting against being a “bad fan” and getting really negative about our chances the rest of the way, but having a hard time with it today.

Concur. As much as I really hate to say it... avoiding a sweep in any one of the final 4 series and finishing at or above .500 in the final ACC standings would be good at this point. What a difference a week(end) makes... I was convinced a week ago... that .500 or better was relatively easy. You're exactly right... missed opportunity at Pitt to be to 10 or 11 wins right now... plus WF surging... plus UNC and Duke legit and consistent now... plus having to play UVA 'after' they are really desperate and/or figure something out (maybe). It all just feels like a bigger hill "suddenly".

Baseball is a cruel business sometimes.

 

[FredJacket]

Ok... is the lineup that started v Kennesaw State going to be the "go-to" the until further notice? In the postgame interview, CDH was asked if we'd see it again... and he responded "Yeah.. you'll probably see that again." Just prior to that, he explained the decision based on having seen Serratos play CF as a young player and teammate of Colin. Interestingly... it sounded like he (or the coaches) began to have 2nd thoughts based on how windy the conditions were pre-game; but he approached Serratos who told him he (Serratos) was good to go.

Here are the on-base numbers (thru 4/18) for last night's starting batting order... and the notable "reserves" below those 9:

Murray .439
Bart .483
McCann .455
English .375
Bailey .424
A.Wilhite .360
Serratos .448
Hall .341
Waddell .327

Radcliff .242
N.Wilhite .227
Neuber .500 (very limited... 6 plate appearances)

A few thoughts:
1) Not sure about the "development" of Serratos to play CF... but this move to last night's lineup should have been made a long time ago. Definitely likely to be a downgrade defensively in the outfield (N.Wilhite is very good out there).. and it will rear its head at some point.. but you have to accept that when looking at the production comparisons offensively.
2) The bench is very thin. If there are any more injuries... it is going to be real tough. Is Kel Johnson on any track to get back on the field (or to the plate)? Sounds like Guldberg's shoulder is long-term and he will be pinch runner ONLY.
3) In his 2 ABs last night... Radcliff was impressive. Took what he was given and produced. 2 for 2 with a opposite field double and a big HR to center (3 RBIs). Hopefully... a trend in a permanent upward direction.

 

[MWBATL]

Ok... is the lineup that started v Kennesaw State going to be the "go-to" the until further notice? In the postgame interview, CDH was asked if we'd see it again... and he responded "Yeah.. you'll probably see that again." Just prior to that, he explained the decision based on having seen Serratos play CF as a young player and teammate of Colin. Interestingly... it sounded like he (or the coaches) began to have 2nd thoughts based on how windy the conditions were pre-game; but he approached Serratos who told him he (Serratos) was good to go.

Here are the on-base numbers (thru 4/18) for last night's starting batting order... and the notable "reserves" below those 9:

Murray .439
Bart .483
McCann .455
English .375
Bailey .424
A.Wilhite .360
Serratos .448
Hall .341
Waddell .327

Radcliff .242
N.Wilhite .227
Neuber .500 (very limited... 6 plate appearances)

A few thoughts:
1) Not sure about the "development" of Serratos to play CF... but this move to last night's lineup should have been made a long time ago. Definitely likely to be a downgrade defensively in the outfield (N.Wilhite is very good out there).. and it will rear its head at some point.. but you have to accept that when looking at the production comparisons offensively.
2) The bench is very thin. If there are any more injuries... it is going to be real tough. Is Kel Johnson on any track to get back on the field (or to the plate)? Sounds like Guldberg's shoulder is long-term and he will be pinch runner ONLY.
3) In his 2 ABs last night... Radcliff was impressive. Took what he was given and produced. 2 for 2 with a opposite field double and a big HR to center (3 RBIs). Hopefully... a trend in a permanent upward direction.

Don't mean to rain on the parade, but I take positive results against a team like Kennesaw State with a huge grain of salt. Let's see how Radcliffe does against ACC pitching.

 

[FredJacket]

The ups & downs of a season. Geez. We're consistently up & down aren't we? This thread was initiated 2 weeks ago... after the FSU series (& a beat down of Mercer on road). Record was 20-13 (8-7). Optimism seemed to be abundant... with some caveats acknowledging improvements were probably needed in some areas to really make a run to a good to great season.

...that was 2 weeks ago. The caveats have come home to roost in a most egregious fashion. Only 2 wins (Pitt & KSU). Losses to Ga State, Pitt(2) & UNC(3). Record now 22-19 (9-12).

Now what? What can we really expect the rest of the way?

15 games remain.
11 Home (incl next 7 in row):
UGA, WF(3), Radford(3), SEMO, Duke(3)
3 Road (@ UVA)
1 Neutral (UGA)

Our home record is good (17-7). More importantly, the ACC home record is really good (7-2). Can that be enough to solve what ails us? Or at least get us back to a sustained "up" over these last few weeks.

 

[awbuzz]

:sigh

 

[OldJacketFan]

As much as I would like to think Tech will finish strong I just don't see it happening. I will gladly eat my words if by chance they do!

 

[THWG]

The only thing that really gives me hope is the amount of home games left. I'm optimistic that we could really make up some ground and sneak into the NCAAs as a 3 seed. At this point, I'm just looking forward to next year because we are going to be really good regardless of who is coaching.

 

[bensaysitathome]

The ups & downs of a season. Geez. We're consistently up & down aren't we? This thread was initiated 2 weeks ago... after the FSU series (& a beat down of Mercer on road). Record was 20-13 (8-7). Optimism seemed to be abundant... with some caveats acknowledging improvements were probably needed in some areas to really make a run to a good to great season.

...that was 2 weeks ago. The caveats have come home to roost in a most egregious fashion. Only 2 wins (Pitt & KSU). Losses to Ga State, Pitt(2) & UNC(3). Record now 22-19 (9-12).

Now what? What can we really expect the rest of the way?

15 games remain.
11 Home (incl next 7 in row):
UGA, WF(3), Radford(3), SEMO, Duke(3)
3 Road (@ UVA)
1 Neutral (UGA)

Our home record is good (17-7). More importantly, the ACC home record is really good (7-2). Can that be enough to solve what ails us? Or at least get us back to a sustained "up" over these last few weeks.

So 3 games from .500. To get there, we'd need to finish 6-3. Win all three series 2-1 (including UVA on the road) or sweep WF or Duke.

I'm feeling silly even typing this out, but you never know. Go Jackets.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

.......Now what? What can we really expect the rest of the way?

15 games remain.
11 Home (incl next 7 in row):
UGA, WF(3), Radford(3), SEMO, Duke(3)
3 Road (@ UVA)
1 Neutral (UGA)

Our home record is good (17-7). More importantly, the ACC home record is really good (7-2). Can that be enough to solve what ails us? Or at least get us back to a sustained "up" over these last few weeks.

My projection hasn't changed from last Tuesday:

D1 Baseball put out their first NCAA projection today. GT is not in it.

Here are the current RPIs of our ACC foes remaining and my guess at wins (rounded to nearest .5 wins)
@UNC 8RPI - .5 wins
Wake 94 RPI - 2 wins
@UVa 114 RPI - 1.5 wins
Duke 22 RPI - 1 win.

Nets out to 5 wins and 7 losses. End up the year -2 below 500 ACC. We really needed to get some more ACC wins this last weekend. I think getting only 1 from Pitt was worse than being swept @ Clemson. Just an opinion.

So I was close to right against UNC with .5 wins. Extra innings qualifies as .5 for the swept weekend! (tic)

I think we end up the year at -2 or -4 to 500 in the ACC. Good enough to go to the ACC Tourney. Not good enough to go to the NCAAs, unless we win the ACC. Winning the ACC is our most likely course. Since we are so awful on the road, other teams won't put their best pitchers against us. Then with our starters going 140+ pitches each, we have a chance. (tic)

 

[FredJacket]

Massey's schedule simulation has us finishing with 9-10 wins (out of 15 games). That would put final record at 31-25...ish. I'd be thrilled with a .667 winning percentage to finish. 10 wins? How could that look?
3 - Sweep Radford
1- Beat SEMO
5 - Finish 5-4 in ACC
1 - Finish 1-1 v UGA

That's 10... easy breezy.

 

[FredJacket]

Curious what folks consider is a "reasonable" expectation regarding pushing through to get an NCAA bid. What would it take? ...and can Tech pull themselves up from the mat (where they seem to be now) to do what it would take?

The link below (dated Monday) has Ga Tech out of the field (but listed in group of "last 4 out"). Trying to keep apples with apples... they have 6 ACC teams in the field. I think 7 ACC teams will be the maximum to make the field.
ACC teams IN: NCST, UNC, DUKE, FSU, CLEM, LOU
There are only 5 ACC teams (all but Louisville above) with ACC records above .500. I think it is fair to say at least 6 ACC teams will finish above .500 (probably those 6).

Seems the only way for Ga Tech to get a bid would be accomplish this:
1) Finish .500 (or better) in ACC. That's going at least 6-3 with this schedule (WF, at UVA, Duke). This assumes a corresponding 'expected' OOC finish too. No disaster against Radford and SEMO.

OR
1) Win ACC Tournament

OR (below .500 in ACC scenario)
1) Split remaining 2 games v UGA, Sweep Radford, beat SEMO
2) Finish no lower than 7th in ACC.
3) Win at least 1 ACC Tournament game.

My view as to reasonable expectation to do one of the above? This team has not really had a problem winning at home (knock on wood). Most of the remaining schedule is at home. There are four 10-11 teams ahead of Tech (9-12) in the conference #6-#9 (Lou, Mia, Pitt, WF). I'm assuming the current top 6 will remain that way (NCST, UNC, CLEM, DUKE, FSU, LOU). Looking at the schedules for those other teams we need to pass (Mia, Pitt, WF)... none has a particularly easy schedule. I could see each failing to finish at or above .500.

There's a path there for Ga Tech. We'd need to win WF series and that would give us tiebreaker over both Mia and WF. Pitt probably has the toughest schedule ahead of them (at ND, LOU, CLEM).

Other things in our favor... good strength of schedule in general and had a legit tough ACC schedule compared to other conference teams... if that matters in any way.

http://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/16064

 

[bensaysitathome]

Seems the only way for Ga Tech to get a bid would be accomplish this:
1) Finish .500 (or better) in ACC. That's going at least 6-3 with this schedule (WF, at UVA, Duke). This assumes a corresponding 'expected' OOC finish too. No disaster against Radford and SEMO.

OR
1) Win ACC Tournament

OR (below .500 in ACC scenario)
1) Split remaining 2 games v UGA, Sweep Radford, beat SEMO
2) Finish no lower than 7th in ACC.
3) Win at least 1 ACC Tournament game.

If we go 5-4 to finish the ACC schedule, and finish 2 games below .500, does 5-1 (splitting uGA) get us in? My initial guess is it that it wouldn't.