- Messages
- 2,856
Which is better if all scores are TDs:
1. An offense scores on 50% of its drives and averages 8 drives per game
2. An offense that scores 25% of the time and averages 16 drives per game
They are the same in points per game and have the same points per game stats of 28 points. But team 1 only gave the other team 8 times to score. If the other team cannot be as increadible efficient then the other team loses. 50% is pretty darn good! But 25% is not that great and if the other team had a higher scoring rate then team two loses. Same score with a good team (1) and a bad team (2).
Which is better if all scores are TDs?
1. An offense scores on 50% of its drives and averages 8 drives per game = 28 points
2. An offense that scores 50% of the time and averages 16 drives per game = 54 points (not the realm of normal scores)
They are much different in points per game (by 2X). They are the same ability. If team one had the same number of drives they would score the exact same number of points. Again the opposing offense would have to have an equal or better than 50% scoring per drive to beat team one (same as team 2). See how comparing points per game does not work?
Comparing defenses:
1. If the opposing team only has 8 drives and scores on all drives the max score would be 56
2. If the opposing team has 16 drives and scores on all drives the max score would be 112 points
You expect points to be skewed lower in games with fewer drives. You need to compare the actual score to the possible score the see if you did well. You don't compare your score in 8 drives to someone who had 16 drives to see how good you are. See how points per game does not work? to compare defense.
Defense effects the number of drives:
1. If the defense stops all 8 drives but allows 11 plays per drive (88 plays on D)
2. If the defense stops all 16 drives but only allows 3 plays per drive (48 plays on D)
Team 2 limits the time of the game the other team is on the field allowing their offense to have more drives and or time.
Suppose you have the following teams with the same 50% scores per drive all TD's and the opposing O scores 30% per drive.
1. Offense that plays an average of 70 snaps per game and 11 meaningful drives because they wait till the last second to hike the ball and run the ball a lot keeping the clock going
2. The same offense as above that runs 55 snaps per game and 8 meaningful drives because the defense cannot consistently stop 3rd downs allowing the other team to stay on the field.
3. Offense that plays an average of 90 snaps per game and averages 16 drives per game becauase they pass and hurry the snap.
Team 1 will score 38.5 points averaged versus the opposing team of 23.1 points
Team 2 will score 28 points averaged versus the opposing team of 16.8 points
team 3 will score 54 points averaged versus the opposing team of 33.6 points
This is the same game with different points scored. You cannot measure point per game and compare all games.
This is the same as allowing some games to be 1 hour and some games to be 2 hours. Would you compare scores between these two games. You would not because you would think that you can score more points in 2 hours than 1 hour. You would more than likely have more drives in 2 hours than 1 hour.
Throw out your points per game, yards per game, and most of your per game stats. Per drive and or per play stats will help normalize the games to help you understand the true differences in a teams effectiveness.
I would want a 50% effectiveness on O and lower points per game than a 30% effectiveness and more points per game. You win more with 50%!
1. An offense scores on 50% of its drives and averages 8 drives per game
2. An offense that scores 25% of the time and averages 16 drives per game
They are the same in points per game and have the same points per game stats of 28 points. But team 1 only gave the other team 8 times to score. If the other team cannot be as increadible efficient then the other team loses. 50% is pretty darn good! But 25% is not that great and if the other team had a higher scoring rate then team two loses. Same score with a good team (1) and a bad team (2).
Which is better if all scores are TDs?
1. An offense scores on 50% of its drives and averages 8 drives per game = 28 points
2. An offense that scores 50% of the time and averages 16 drives per game = 54 points (not the realm of normal scores)
They are much different in points per game (by 2X). They are the same ability. If team one had the same number of drives they would score the exact same number of points. Again the opposing offense would have to have an equal or better than 50% scoring per drive to beat team one (same as team 2). See how comparing points per game does not work?
Comparing defenses:
1. If the opposing team only has 8 drives and scores on all drives the max score would be 56
2. If the opposing team has 16 drives and scores on all drives the max score would be 112 points
You expect points to be skewed lower in games with fewer drives. You need to compare the actual score to the possible score the see if you did well. You don't compare your score in 8 drives to someone who had 16 drives to see how good you are. See how points per game does not work? to compare defense.
Defense effects the number of drives:
1. If the defense stops all 8 drives but allows 11 plays per drive (88 plays on D)
2. If the defense stops all 16 drives but only allows 3 plays per drive (48 plays on D)
Team 2 limits the time of the game the other team is on the field allowing their offense to have more drives and or time.
Suppose you have the following teams with the same 50% scores per drive all TD's and the opposing O scores 30% per drive.
1. Offense that plays an average of 70 snaps per game and 11 meaningful drives because they wait till the last second to hike the ball and run the ball a lot keeping the clock going
2. The same offense as above that runs 55 snaps per game and 8 meaningful drives because the defense cannot consistently stop 3rd downs allowing the other team to stay on the field.
3. Offense that plays an average of 90 snaps per game and averages 16 drives per game becauase they pass and hurry the snap.
Team 1 will score 38.5 points averaged versus the opposing team of 23.1 points
Team 2 will score 28 points averaged versus the opposing team of 16.8 points
team 3 will score 54 points averaged versus the opposing team of 33.6 points
This is the same game with different points scored. You cannot measure point per game and compare all games.
This is the same as allowing some games to be 1 hour and some games to be 2 hours. Would you compare scores between these two games. You would not because you would think that you can score more points in 2 hours than 1 hour. You would more than likely have more drives in 2 hours than 1 hour.
Throw out your points per game, yards per game, and most of your per game stats. Per drive and or per play stats will help normalize the games to help you understand the true differences in a teams effectiveness.
I would want a 50% effectiveness on O and lower points per game than a 30% effectiveness and more points per game. You win more with 50%!
