RonJohn
Helluva Engineer
- Messages
- 5,048
When streaming takes over sports media, then ratings might pull in more subscribers. Currently, signing up for a TV package is the only thing that gets subscribers. Just looking at DTV as an example. Every TV package includes ESPN. More ratings does not equal more subscribers, everybody gets it. SECN and ACCN is in the second package and above. Maybe some people sign up for the second tier package specifically for the ACCN, but it is going to be an extremely small number. College football fans would sign up for at least that package because they would get ACCN, SECN, and Big10 Network. You don't choose one or the other, you subscribe to all or none.Ratings have to matter when it comes time to negotiate the next deal. The more viewers, the better the ratings. The better the ratings, the more subscribers it pulls in and the better the deal.
The current contract isn't set to expire for 15 more years. I don't know what conditions are in the contract for renegotiation. Maybe it is possible to renegotiate if two or more teams enter the conference, but I don't know. As poorly as the ACC has done and as little confidence I had in Swofford, I would not be surprised that the ACC is stuck in the current contract no matter what happens.
If the ACC is able to renegotiate this year if they add two more teams, what will a contract this year be based on? Will it be based on what potential streaming money might be available sometime in the future under a plan that no-one has any firm data on yet? Will it be based on what revenue those two teams add to ESPN right now? Will it be based on how enthusiastic those fans are and how exciting their tailgating scene is, even though that adds zero dollars to ESPN's revenue? I do not believe that ratings would play a huge role in a renegotiation if one occurred today. If in a few years the future of sports media(probably streaming) is more clear, then ratings might play a big role.
Take a look at UCF. I believe the entire state of Florida is already a home market area for the ACC, so the ACCN will not gain any revenue. UCF is currently in the AAC, whose media is also run by ESPN. Does ESPN gain anything? Will ESPN pay any more if they do not gain anything? They probably would move the media money for the 6 home games that UCF plays, but that will be far, far below the $32 million average in the conference currently. Will ESPN sign up for an extra $50 million per year because maybe in 10 years UCF, Miami, and FSU will have a "State of Florida" championship rivalry? No. If that is developed, then somebody will pay for it, but they aren't going to pay for a maybe, someday, might happen scenario.
I do not disagree with you that in the future things will be different, but do you want to negotiate in 10 years, or do you want to get more revenue now? I am posting numbers (rough, not exact) from media analyst's estimates. I am describing how sports media actually currently makes money, not a idealistic way of how I think sports media should work.