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Ever Changing Perspective, Week by week
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<blockquote data-quote="FredJacket" data-source="post: 873198" data-attributes="member: 2843"><p>Midpoint of the ACC schedule. Some implications discussed across other threads. I'll pile on...</p><p></p><p>Miami has a COMMANDING lead in the Coastal. I'll admit I would have never predicted any team more than 2 or 3 games up on the rest of the division at this point in the season. Miami at 13-2 in the ACC having won all 5 series and sweeping the last 3 in a row. That's impressive; and frankly, it means the "rest of us" are in a fight for 2nd place in the division. </p><p></p><p>Ga Tech (7-8) can get there. Only Miami & UVA has more wins than Ga Tech:</p><p></p><p>MIAMI (13-2): Still half the schedule remaining; but would take a colossal collapse by Miami for Ga Tech to a make up 6 games on Miami. We do host them in a few weeks. Need help and to sweep them when we play. One can "hope", I guess.</p><p></p><p>UVA (9-6): Need a tiny bit of help to get past UVA. Their schedule is not too scary and they own tiebreaker over GT. </p><p></p><p>VT (7-6): If no more games are cancelled, our tiebreaker advantage with VT is useless. It won't come into play unless both teams end up at .500 (GT 15-15 and VT 14-14) and .500 won't be close to 2nd place. VT will only get 28 games max after 2 v ND were cancelled.</p><p></p><p>PITT (7-7), UNC (7-8): We have yet to play these teams. Just win series (esp those head-to-heads remaining).</p><p></p><p>DUKE (3-13): We get Duke in Atlanta. Need to keep boot on their neck that weekend. Make some hay. Also would be nice if Duke figured out how to win over Pitt and VT (still ahead on their schedule)</p><p> </p><p>What is the path (narrow as it seems right now for Ga Tech to host a regional. The question sort of becomes how many ACC teams will host a regional?... probably 3-4 at the most. D1 Baseball's mid-season projections had 4 ACC teams hosting.</p><p></p><p>A good spot to start for hosting is get to top 4 seed for the ACC tournament. The format of the conference tournament & and quality of teams top to bottom in the conference is such that if you aren't a top 4 seed, it doesn't much matter where you fall for the ACC tournament. As a 5-12 seed, you have to win both pool play games to advance to weekend of the tournament. Ga Tech has enough talent to win 2 games in Charlotte and advance. So.. it comes down to who may or may not be hot in your pool as to how that tournament goes. If you can't be a top 4 seed, I just prefer a pool not including UNC or NCST as the venue becomes a home field for those 2 teams. </p><p></p><p>Another path to hosting would be to show up at ACC tournament in the 5-7 seed range with a better than .500 conference record and good looking RPI and win the thing. Assuming Ga Tech continues on a path and finishes with a conference record in the 17-13 or 16-14 range, the RPI is likely to be strong... currently 9th based on a strong schedule.</p><p></p><p>Ga Tech dug themselves a hole due to below average pitching, shaky defense, and key injuries. The injuries (fingers-crossed) are behind us & better defense is correlated. The pitching has shown some flashes. A 10-5 type finish over final 5 series is possible.</p><p></p><p>If you want to wallow in a worst-case scenario, Ga Tech continues on this trajectory, ends season as a middle to lower-half seed in ACC tournament (around .500). Nothing special happens in Charlotte. Reward - A drive up to Athens for a regional hosted by a team we beat head-to-head early in the season.</p><p></p><p>To address this thread's theme, my perspective ... confused and "changing daily". I predict based on what I want in these cases. Ga Tech goes on a bit of a tear and cracks into top 4 of ACC by season's end OR.... something else happens.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="FredJacket, post: 873198, member: 2843"] Midpoint of the ACC schedule. Some implications discussed across other threads. I'll pile on... Miami has a COMMANDING lead in the Coastal. I'll admit I would have never predicted any team more than 2 or 3 games up on the rest of the division at this point in the season. Miami at 13-2 in the ACC having won all 5 series and sweeping the last 3 in a row. That's impressive; and frankly, it means the "rest of us" are in a fight for 2nd place in the division. Ga Tech (7-8) can get there. Only Miami & UVA has more wins than Ga Tech: MIAMI (13-2): Still half the schedule remaining; but would take a colossal collapse by Miami for Ga Tech to a make up 6 games on Miami. We do host them in a few weeks. Need help and to sweep them when we play. One can "hope", I guess. UVA (9-6): Need a tiny bit of help to get past UVA. Their schedule is not too scary and they own tiebreaker over GT. VT (7-6): If no more games are cancelled, our tiebreaker advantage with VT is useless. It won't come into play unless both teams end up at .500 (GT 15-15 and VT 14-14) and .500 won't be close to 2nd place. VT will only get 28 games max after 2 v ND were cancelled. PITT (7-7), UNC (7-8): We have yet to play these teams. Just win series (esp those head-to-heads remaining). DUKE (3-13): We get Duke in Atlanta. Need to keep boot on their neck that weekend. Make some hay. Also would be nice if Duke figured out how to win over Pitt and VT (still ahead on their schedule) What is the path (narrow as it seems right now for Ga Tech to host a regional. The question sort of becomes how many ACC teams will host a regional?... probably 3-4 at the most. D1 Baseball's mid-season projections had 4 ACC teams hosting. A good spot to start for hosting is get to top 4 seed for the ACC tournament. The format of the conference tournament & and quality of teams top to bottom in the conference is such that if you aren't a top 4 seed, it doesn't much matter where you fall for the ACC tournament. As a 5-12 seed, you have to win both pool play games to advance to weekend of the tournament. Ga Tech has enough talent to win 2 games in Charlotte and advance. So.. it comes down to who may or may not be hot in your pool as to how that tournament goes. If you can't be a top 4 seed, I just prefer a pool not including UNC or NCST as the venue becomes a home field for those 2 teams. Another path to hosting would be to show up at ACC tournament in the 5-7 seed range with a better than .500 conference record and good looking RPI and win the thing. Assuming Ga Tech continues on a path and finishes with a conference record in the 17-13 or 16-14 range, the RPI is likely to be strong... currently 9th based on a strong schedule. Ga Tech dug themselves a hole due to below average pitching, shaky defense, and key injuries. The injuries (fingers-crossed) are behind us & better defense is correlated. The pitching has shown some flashes. A 10-5 type finish over final 5 series is possible. If you want to wallow in a worst-case scenario, Ga Tech continues on this trajectory, ends season as a middle to lower-half seed in ACC tournament (around .500). Nothing special happens in Charlotte. Reward - A drive up to Athens for a regional hosted by a team we beat head-to-head early in the season. To address this thread's theme, my perspective ... confused and "changing daily". I predict based on what I want in these cases. Ga Tech goes on a bit of a tear and cracks into top 4 of ACC by season's end OR.... something else happens. [/QUOTE]
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