ESPN: 2015 Preseason FPI

CuseJacket

CuseJacket

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Well, it's the offseason...

Ohio State at top of Preseason FPI
FPI is an estimate of team strength – not a ranking of who will have the highest win total (which is dependent on schedule) and not who is most likely to make the College Football Playoff. Preseason FPI is calculated using three major components for each FBS team: prior years’ offense, defense and special teams efficiencies; returning starters and head coach information; and recruiting rankings.
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GT comes in at #23:
  • GT's offensive efficiency ranking is #7 - I assume that's a result of offseason departures based on the explanation above
  • ST comes in surprisingly low at #83
Perhaps someone who understands the methodology can explain.
 

jayparr

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CuseJacket said:
Well, it's the offseason...

Ohio State at top of Preseason FPI


GT comes in at #23:
  • GT's offensive efficiency ranking is #7 - I assume that's a result of offseason departures based on the explanation above
  • ST comes in surprisingly low at #83
Perhaps someone who understands the methodology can explain.
Click to expand...
Cuse, I'm calling Walter O'Briens Scorpion team to figure out the whys associated with these numbers! By the way any of you computer and or numbers guys that Scorpion tv show would be really interesting for you or anybody!!!! I told a fellow officer and a real computer whiz at work about it, and he can't get enough of it!
 
bigsands

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Opponents FPI:
7. Notre Dame
9. Georgia
19. Clemson
21. Florida State
23. Georgia Tech
25. Virginia Tech
29. Miami
35. North Carolina
42. Pittsburgh
56. Virginia
60. Duke
97. Tulane
 
GTNavyNuke

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I can't explain how ESPN does it, but they are basically saying that our O is our strength, the D is slightly better than average and ST don't matter much.

This is because for:

O the range is -13.2 to 15.2 and we are at 10.5. This makes sense if you look at points per game rather than points per possession and neglect how we hog the ball for 34 minutes of the games.

D the range is -11.5 to 14.1 and we are at 2.6. Yup we gave up a lot of points. Till that stops, every computer model should assume that we will continue to give up a lot of points. We basically boat raced our way to the UGAg and MSU wins and came damn close in the FSU game.

ST the range is =1.6 to 1.8 and we are -.1. First off ST isn't worth as much in the total. There are about 6 independent aspects to ST. It may only account for how many FGs a team kicks. We don't bother with FGs when there are TDs our there.

I wish we'd come in 40th to keep the team from getting too confident.
 
Js-showman

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Interesting off season discussion. But otherwise, we all know this is worthless.
What did they have us at last year?
 
GTNavyNuke

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AlabamaBuzz said:
If our D is top 35, we are in the playoff, assuming we don't get fumble-itis next year..BUT, that is a big IF
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I was thinking more about our D. If we have a top 35 on a points per possession basis, I agree we are in good shape. But since we have the ball 30% more time (34 minutes GT TOP / 26 minutes Opp TOP), that makes our D look a lot better on a game comparison. So if we are 35th on D but have a 30% advantage, I don't know that is good enough .......

Here's to hoping we have a lot of death marches next year. The opponent can't score without the ball.

As far as being in the playoff, we have to be lucky too. There are a lot of good teams out there who are getting better in off season. Many of our turnovers are forced, but bad turnover luck and bad officiating can undo any team.
 

Foxyg

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If we make it through that schedule and an acc-championship game unscathed they ought to declare us nat'l champs then and there. To hell with the playoff. We're going to lose a regular season game or two. What scares me is that the defense may be better at forcing punts, but still give up more points because depending on a ridiculously positive turnover margin is not a recipe for success from year to year.
 
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