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<blockquote data-quote="slugboy" data-source="post: 902370" data-attributes="member: 282"><p>It's Wednesday, so let's have some hump day preview information.</p><p></p><p>On Offense, Riley Leonard is up towards the top of the ACC QBR rankings, with a really nice 79.8 rating--that's good. Sims is down at a 46. Some people split the QBR where above 70 is good and below 70 is not, but I'd put more gray in it than that. Sub-50 is not where you want to be when you need to sling the ball.</p><p></p><table style='width: 100%'><tr><th>NAME</th><th></th><th>QBR</th></tr><tr><td>Drake Maye</td><td>UNC</td><td><p style="text-align: right">90.6</p> </td></tr><tr><td>Jordan Travis</td><td>FSU</td><td><p style="text-align: right">83.2</p> </td></tr><tr><td><strong>Riley Leonard</strong></td><td><strong>DUKE</strong></td><td><p style="text-align: right"><strong>79.8</strong></p> </td></tr><tr><td>Sam Hartman</td><td>WAKE</td><td><p style="text-align: right">78.6</p> </td></tr><tr><td>DJ Uiagalelei</td><td>CLEM</td><td><p style="text-align: right">77.2</p> </td></tr><tr><td>Malik Cunningham</td><td>LOU</td><td><p style="text-align: right">75.9</p> </td></tr><tr><td>Garrett Shrader</td><td>SYR</td><td><p style="text-align: right">74.4</p> </td></tr><tr><td>Devin Leary</td><td>NCST</td><td><p style="text-align: right">52.5</p> </td></tr><tr><td>Kedon Slovis</td><td>PITT</td><td><p style="text-align: right">48.8</p> </td></tr><tr><td><strong>Jeff Sims</strong></td><td>GT</td><td><p style="text-align: right"><strong>46</strong></p> </td></tr><tr><td>Grant Wells</td><td>VT</td><td><p style="text-align: right">45.6</p> </td></tr><tr><td>Tyler Van Dyke</td><td>MIA</td><td><p style="text-align: right">41.3</p> </td></tr><tr><td>Brennan Armstrong</td><td>UVA</td><td><p style="text-align: right">41.1</p> </td></tr><tr><td>Phil Jurkovec</td><td>BC</td><td><p style="text-align: right">39.4</p> </td></tr></table><p></p><p>I'll look at their last game against UVA, since they're probably more comparable to us than Kansas. Here are the Duke-UVA highlights. Duke looks good. UVA's QB Armstrong should have gone pro last year. UVA's defense--well, Pitt's defense looks a LOT better than UVA's defense. Last year, UVA would beat you 49-35, but this year's defense looks weaker than last year's defense. Still, Duke looks good, even if UVA looks weak.</p><p></p><p>The one thing that makes me feel good about our defense is that, outside of some Q4 breakdowns, did not give up the big play, unless your idea of a big play is a 7-yard run. Duke feasted on UVA's defense.</p><p></p><p>[MEDIA=youtube]4DMTtcVDQ4E[/MEDIA]</p><p></p><p>Here's the Game on Paper</p><p></p><table style='width: 100%'><tr><th>Overall</th><th>UVA</th><th>DUKE</th></tr><tr><td>EPA/Play</td><td>-0.14 19th %ile</td><td><strong>0.22 82nd %ile</strong></td></tr><tr><td>Success Rate</td><td>39% 39th %ile</td><td><strong>56% 96th %ile</strong></td></tr><tr><td>Yards/Play</td><td>3.21 2nd %ile</td><td>6.17 56th %ile</td></tr><tr><td>EPA/Dropback</td><td>-0.13 30th %ile</td><td>0.08 53rd %ile</td></tr><tr><td>EPA/Rush</td><td>-0.16 22nd %ile</td><td><strong>0.32 91st %ile</strong></td></tr><tr><td>Yards/Dropback</td><td>3.45 8th %ile</td><td>6.20 47th %ile</td></tr><tr><td>Explosive Play Rate</td><td><strong>11% 77th %ile</strong></td><td>7% 33rd %ile</td></tr><tr><td>3rd Down Success Rate</td><td><strong>55% 82nd %ile</strong></td><td><strong>50% 75th %ile</strong></td></tr><tr><td>Red Zone Success Rate</td><td>40% 53rd %ile</td><td><strong>100% 99th %ile</strong></td></tr><tr><td>Def Run Stuff Rate</td><td>6% 0th %ile</td><td>12% 1st %ile</td></tr><tr><td>Havoc Rate</td><td>8% 37th %ile</td><td><strong>21% 95th %ile</strong></td></tr></table><p></p><p>Duke ran for 248 yards and passed for 129. UVA passed for 202 and rushed for 93. Duke cashed in and got a ton out of their running game.</p><p></p><p>Duke just got in front and gradually padded their lead from there. When they played Kansas and got behind, they didn't play as well. Lesson learned--don't let them have an early lead.</p><table style='width: 100%'><tr><th></th><th>1</th><th>2</th><th>3</th><th>4</th><th>T</th></tr><tr><td>UVA</td><td>0</td><td>7</td><td>3</td><td>7</td><td>17</td></tr><tr><td>DUKE</td><td>14</td><td>7</td><td>7</td><td>10</td><td>38</td></tr></table><p></p><p>Here's our FEI numbers.</p><table style='width: 100%'><tr><th>RK</th><th>Team</th><th>Rec</th><th>FBS</th><th>FEI</th><th></th><th>OFEI</th><th>Rk</th><th>DFEI</th><th>Rk</th><th></th><th>NDE</th><th>Rk</th><th>NPD</th><th>Rk</th><th>NAY</th><th>Rk</th><th>NPP</th><th>Rk</th><th></th><th>ELS</th><th>Rk</th><th>GLS</th><th>Rk</th><th>ALS</th><th>Rk</th></tr><tr><td>66</td><td>Duke</td><td>4-1</td><td>3-1</td><td>-0.05</td><td></td><td>0.19</td><td>51</td><td>-0.4</td><td>97</td><td></td><td>1.29</td><td>25</td><td>1.32</td><td>21</td><td>0.145</td><td>25</td><td>1.82</td><td>15</td><td></td><td>0.04</td><td>118</td><td>0.26</td><td>120</td><td>1.26</td><td>115</td></tr><tr><td>94</td><td>Georgia Tech</td><td>2-3</td><td>1-3</td><td>-0.32</td><td></td><td>-0.25</td><td>86</td><td>-0.23</td><td>86</td><td></td><td>-1.32</td><td>111</td><td>-1.54</td><td>115</td><td>-0.171</td><td>111</td><td>-1.08</td><td>100</td><td></td><td>0.42</td><td>24</td><td>1.69</td><td>5</td><td>3.2</td><td>2</td></tr></table><p></p><p>So, opponent-adjusted, our defense is better than their defense. Their offense is much better than our offense.</p><p></p><p>Our defense SHOULD match up pretty well with their defense. The bigger question is whether our offense starts playing better.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="slugboy, post: 902370, member: 282"] It's Wednesday, so let's have some hump day preview information. On Offense, Riley Leonard is up towards the top of the ACC QBR rankings, with a really nice 79.8 rating--that's good. Sims is down at a 46. Some people split the QBR where above 70 is good and below 70 is not, but I'd put more gray in it than that. Sub-50 is not where you want to be when you need to sling the ball. [TABLE] [TR] [TH]NAME[/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH]QBR[/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Drake Maye[/TD] [TD]UNC[/TD] [TD][RIGHT]90.6[/RIGHT][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Jordan Travis[/TD] [TD]FSU[/TD] [TD][RIGHT]83.2[/RIGHT][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][B]Riley Leonard[/B][/TD] [TD][B]DUKE[/B][/TD] [TD][RIGHT][B]79.8[/B][/RIGHT][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Sam Hartman[/TD] [TD]WAKE[/TD] [TD][RIGHT]78.6[/RIGHT][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]DJ Uiagalelei[/TD] [TD]CLEM[/TD] [TD][RIGHT]77.2[/RIGHT][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Malik Cunningham[/TD] [TD]LOU[/TD] [TD][RIGHT]75.9[/RIGHT][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Garrett Shrader[/TD] [TD]SYR[/TD] [TD][RIGHT]74.4[/RIGHT][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Devin Leary[/TD] [TD]NCST[/TD] [TD][RIGHT]52.5[/RIGHT][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Kedon Slovis[/TD] [TD]PITT[/TD] [TD][RIGHT]48.8[/RIGHT][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][B]Jeff Sims[/B][/TD] [TD]GT[/TD] [TD][RIGHT][B]46[/B][/RIGHT][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Grant Wells[/TD] [TD]VT[/TD] [TD][RIGHT]45.6[/RIGHT][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Tyler Van Dyke[/TD] [TD]MIA[/TD] [TD][RIGHT]41.3[/RIGHT][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Brennan Armstrong[/TD] [TD]UVA[/TD] [TD][RIGHT]41.1[/RIGHT][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Phil Jurkovec[/TD] [TD]BC[/TD] [TD][RIGHT]39.4[/RIGHT][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] I'll look at their last game against UVA, since they're probably more comparable to us than Kansas. Here are the Duke-UVA highlights. Duke looks good. UVA's QB Armstrong should have gone pro last year. UVA's defense--well, Pitt's defense looks a LOT better than UVA's defense. Last year, UVA would beat you 49-35, but this year's defense looks weaker than last year's defense. Still, Duke looks good, even if UVA looks weak. The one thing that makes me feel good about our defense is that, outside of some Q4 breakdowns, did not give up the big play, unless your idea of a big play is a 7-yard run. Duke feasted on UVA's defense. [MEDIA=youtube]4DMTtcVDQ4E[/MEDIA] Here's the Game on Paper [TABLE] [TR] [TH]Overall[/TH] [TH]UVA[/TH] [TH]DUKE[/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TD]EPA/Play[/TD] [TD]-0.14 19th %ile[/TD] [TD][B]0.22 82nd %ile[/B][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Success Rate[/TD] [TD]39% 39th %ile[/TD] [TD][B]56% 96th %ile[/B][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Yards/Play[/TD] [TD]3.21 2nd %ile[/TD] [TD]6.17 56th %ile[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]EPA/Dropback[/TD] [TD]-0.13 30th %ile[/TD] [TD]0.08 53rd %ile[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]EPA/Rush[/TD] [TD]-0.16 22nd %ile[/TD] [TD][B]0.32 91st %ile[/B][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Yards/Dropback[/TD] [TD]3.45 8th %ile[/TD] [TD]6.20 47th %ile[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Explosive Play Rate[/TD] [TD][B]11% 77th %ile[/B][/TD] [TD]7% 33rd %ile[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]3rd Down Success Rate[/TD] [TD][B]55% 82nd %ile[/B][/TD] [TD][B]50% 75th %ile[/B][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Red Zone Success Rate[/TD] [TD]40% 53rd %ile[/TD] [TD][B]100% 99th %ile[/B][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Def Run Stuff Rate[/TD] [TD]6% 0th %ile[/TD] [TD]12% 1st %ile[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Havoc Rate[/TD] [TD]8% 37th %ile[/TD] [TD][B]21% 95th %ile[/B][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Duke ran for 248 yards and passed for 129. UVA passed for 202 and rushed for 93. Duke cashed in and got a ton out of their running game. Duke just got in front and gradually padded their lead from there. When they played Kansas and got behind, they didn't play as well. Lesson learned--don't let them have an early lead. [TABLE] [TR] [TH][/TH] [TH]1[/TH] [TH]2[/TH] [TH]3[/TH] [TH]4[/TH] [TH]T[/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TD]UVA[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]17[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]DUKE[/TD] [TD]14[/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]10[/TD] [TD]38[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Here's our FEI numbers. [TABLE] [TR] [TH]RK[/TH] [TH]Team[/TH] [TH]Rec[/TH] [TH]FBS[/TH] [TH]FEI[/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH]OFEI[/TH] [TH]Rk[/TH] [TH]DFEI[/TH] [TH]Rk[/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH]NDE[/TH] [TH]Rk[/TH] [TH]NPD[/TH] [TH]Rk[/TH] [TH]NAY[/TH] [TH]Rk[/TH] [TH]NPP[/TH] [TH]Rk[/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH]ELS[/TH] [TH]Rk[/TH] [TH]GLS[/TH] [TH]Rk[/TH] [TH]ALS[/TH] [TH]Rk[/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TD]66[/TD] [TD]Duke[/TD] [TD]4-1[/TD] [TD]3-1[/TD] [TD]-0.05[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]0.19[/TD] [TD]51[/TD] [TD]-0.4[/TD] [TD]97[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]1.29[/TD] [TD]25[/TD] [TD]1.32[/TD] [TD]21[/TD] [TD]0.145[/TD] [TD]25[/TD] [TD]1.82[/TD] [TD]15[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]0.04[/TD] [TD]118[/TD] [TD]0.26[/TD] [TD]120[/TD] [TD]1.26[/TD] [TD]115[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]94[/TD] [TD]Georgia Tech[/TD] [TD]2-3[/TD] [TD]1-3[/TD] [TD]-0.32[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]-0.25[/TD] [TD]86[/TD] [TD]-0.23[/TD] [TD]86[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]-1.32[/TD] [TD]111[/TD] [TD]-1.54[/TD] [TD]115[/TD] [TD]-0.171[/TD] [TD]111[/TD] [TD]-1.08[/TD] [TD]100[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]0.42[/TD] [TD]24[/TD] [TD]1.69[/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]3.2[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] So, opponent-adjusted, our defense is better than their defense. Their offense is much better than our offense. Our defense SHOULD match up pretty well with their defense. The bigger question is whether our offense starts playing better. [/QUOTE]
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