Duke preview chat

[slugboy]

We’ve looked at the media.
One problem with Duke the last few years has been weak QB play.
Duke’s Holmberg is squarely in the middle of the QBs right now. Sims has two ratings from NIU and Pitt weighing him down.
I think we have to assume a balanced offense from Duke

Public info from https://www.pff.com/college/grades/position/qb

 

[slugboy]

Just a few stat/model based things.

For Sagarin (really simple, and pretty early in the season, still),

GT Predictor	72.66
Duke Predictor	64.75
Diff (+3 pt Duke Home Field Advantage)	4.91

So, a 5 point advantage to the good guys. Hope that holds.

Here's the last couple of years from Duke, for reference (from sports-reference.com)

			Over	Over	Over	Over	Conf	Conf	Conf	Conf	SRS	SRS
Rk	Year	Conf	W	L	T	Pct	W	L	T	Pct	SRS	SOS
1	2021	ACC	3	2			0	1	0	.000	-2.16	-5.96
2	2020	ACC	2	9	0	.182	1	9	0	.100	-12.88	-1.60
3	2019	ACC	5	7	0	.417	3	5	0	.375	0.11	2.03
4	2018	ACC	8	5	0	.615	3	5	0	.375	6.37	3.60
5	2017	ACC	7	6	0	.538	3	5	0	.375	7.23	3.23

Provided by CFB at Sports Reference: View Original Table
Generated 10/8/2021.

The SRS is a simple score, where in 2017 and 2018 Duke was about a TD above average, they were way below average last year, and a couple of points below average this year. (i.e. they're better this year than last, but they're not good). We're 6.6 to the positive this year.

Duke has a few scoring threats, but their main two are their RB (Durant) and their QB (Holmberg), and it's mainly their running back

			Rush				Rece				Scri
Rk	Player	G	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	Rec	Yds	Avg	TD	Plays	Yds	Avg	TDV
1	Mataeo Durant	5	106	636	6.0	8	12	170	14.2	1	118	806	6.8	9
2	Gunnar Holmberg	5	52	158	3.0	6					52	158	3.0	6
3	Jalon Calhoun	5					25	325	13.0	2	25	325	13.0	2
4	Jordan Waters	5	31	186	6.0	1	5	65	13.0	1	36	251	7.0	2
5	Jordan Moore	5	21	100	4.8	2					21	100	4.8	2
6	Jake Bobo	5					40	437	10.9	0	40	437	10.9	0

Provided by CFB at Sports Reference: View Original Table
Generated 10/8/2021.

I went back to find their one P5 win, over Northwestern. Wow, Northwestern was just terrible. It looks like the key to the game is not to be terrible.

 

[slugboy]

WRAL article (not paywalled):

Duke, Georgia Tech meet trying to move forward after losses :: WRALSportsFan.com

Duke and Georgia Tech both had momentum after wins by double-digit margins before opening October with a big stumble. The Blue Devils and Yellow Jackets meet Saturday for the chance to regroup, and maybe find some consistency.

www.wralsportsfan.com

We had some idea it might be rainy at Duke, and have been practicing outside instead of under shelter, so we’re used to playing in the rain.

Here’s the Brownlow GIF preview:

Brownlow's GIFs: Mack Brown tries for first-ever win over FSU, plus Duke needs a bounce-back :: WRALSportsFan.com

UNC can't lose to Florida State again, can it? That, plus Duke taking on Georgia Tech looking to prove it's not the Duke of old. That and more as Lauren Brownlow breaks down the games, with GIFs!

www.wralsportsfan.com

We don’t get a GIF, just Duke, but it’s the same preview. It’s kind of a “does the Tech who played UNC show up or the Tech who played Pitt?” preview, with a twist of “Can Duke get ground yards?”.
Duke’s backup RB may also be better than you might guess.

 

[bensaysitathome]

I like the defensive start Browlow mentioned about our first 4 opponents all being held to under 4 yards per rush.

I know the dukies have a star at RB, but his stats seem skewed by a monster game against Charlotte in week 1. If we can keep them under 4 ypc I like our odds.

 

[slugboy]

I think it’s a “keep them in front of you and bring them to the ground” kinda day.

 

[slugboy]

EBSBS preview: