MWBATL
Helluva Engineer
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- 6,506
Thought I'd take a look at pitching performances year over year between 2017 and 2018 to get an impression on whether pitchers improve at GT. Many seem to think that simply another year on the mound will make a pitcher somehow better. I was not at all sure so wanted to look at results. Here is what I found:
GUYS WHOSE STATS LOOKED BETTER:
Xavion Curry 4.18 ERA after 5.23 ERA in his frosh year
Connor Thomas 3.34 ERA after an 11.32 ERA in his frosh season (wow.....just, wow)
Andy Archer 3.64 ERA after a 4.82 ERA
Robert Winborne 4.50 ERA after a 7.78 ERA (both years not many innings)
GUYS WHOSE STATS LOOKED WORSE
Jake Lee 9.68 ERA after a 6.10 ERA (not nearly as many innings in 2018 but with that ERA, you can see why...)
Jared Datoc 4.86 ERA after a 3.77 ERA (again, fewer innings in 2018)
Micah Carpenter 3.94 ERA after a 2.56 ERA
Bailey Combs 6.10 ERA after a 5.21 ERA
Keyton Gibson 8.10 ERA after a 5.94 ERA (but the WHIP was 1.68 after being 1.61 in 2017)
In some cases, for those pitchers who really did not get a ton of innings, the change in ERA isn't statistically significant. You could probably argue that guys like Combs, Carpenter, Datoc, Gibson and even Archer actually performed at the same level in both years. It looks to me like Curry, Thomas and Winborne improved....while I would argue that Lee regressed.
So, of the nine pitchers who had enough innings on both years to have some decent sense of things....3 improved, 1 regressed and 5 were about the same. I am not so thoroughly convinced that another year automatically means better performance. Seems kinda hit to miss to me...some guys wind up "getting it" and making some big strides, while others.....don't.
This may not surprise anyone, but i have noticed we have a tendency as a fan base to say our pitchers will improve from their frosh to soph years because of the experience, and it just is not something you can count on.....
GUYS WHOSE STATS LOOKED BETTER:
Xavion Curry 4.18 ERA after 5.23 ERA in his frosh year
Connor Thomas 3.34 ERA after an 11.32 ERA in his frosh season (wow.....just, wow)
Andy Archer 3.64 ERA after a 4.82 ERA
Robert Winborne 4.50 ERA after a 7.78 ERA (both years not many innings)
GUYS WHOSE STATS LOOKED WORSE
Jake Lee 9.68 ERA after a 6.10 ERA (not nearly as many innings in 2018 but with that ERA, you can see why...)
Jared Datoc 4.86 ERA after a 3.77 ERA (again, fewer innings in 2018)
Micah Carpenter 3.94 ERA after a 2.56 ERA
Bailey Combs 6.10 ERA after a 5.21 ERA
Keyton Gibson 8.10 ERA after a 5.94 ERA (but the WHIP was 1.68 after being 1.61 in 2017)
In some cases, for those pitchers who really did not get a ton of innings, the change in ERA isn't statistically significant. You could probably argue that guys like Combs, Carpenter, Datoc, Gibson and even Archer actually performed at the same level in both years. It looks to me like Curry, Thomas and Winborne improved....while I would argue that Lee regressed.
So, of the nine pitchers who had enough innings on both years to have some decent sense of things....3 improved, 1 regressed and 5 were about the same. I am not so thoroughly convinced that another year automatically means better performance. Seems kinda hit to miss to me...some guys wind up "getting it" and making some big strides, while others.....don't.
This may not surprise anyone, but i have noticed we have a tendency as a fan base to say our pitchers will improve from their frosh to soph years because of the experience, and it just is not something you can count on.....
