Defensive Improvement & Stat Comparison Against FSU

[GTNavyNuke]

Sorry if this has been posted but I haven't seen. http://atomicfootball.com/archive/teams/tm_29.html

Here's why I haven't bothered to do stat comparision again this week ..... our D is getting much better especially when you consider that overall the last five games were against much better teams than our first four ACC games.
"# In the Jackets' first four ACC games (2-2), they allowed an average of 432 yards of total offense, 24.8 first downs, a 53.2 percent third down conversion rate, and 30 points (with a range of 17-48).

# In the final four ACC games (4-0) and at Georgia (1-0), they surrendered an average of 351.2 yard, 17.6 first downs, a 40 percent third down rate, and 18.2 points (with a range of 6-28).

But for those like me who like stats, looking at https://gtswarm.com/threads/compari...d-fsu-football-outsiders-stats-and-hope.5055/ with last week's stats, here's how I sum up the game against FSU compared to UGAg.

Field advantage: Definitely to GT base on number of tickets sold and not being the 39-2 nad lickers home under Richt.
Overall offense: FSU a bit better than UGAg.
Overall defense: FSU a bit better than UGAg.
Special teams: FSU not nearly as good as UGAg.

More to follow......

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Next line play;

First our OL against their DL. FSU is much better against the run (standard downs). FSU isn't as good against the pass, but having lost Smelter, we have lost a lot. Waller and Summers need to step up.

For our DL against their OL, FSU isn't nearly as good running and has lost one of their two best backs. That will put a premium on FSU passing which is our strength in turnovers. And Winston has thrown a lot of turnovers.

More to follow:

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Anyone who reads my stuff knows I like ST.

For some reason FSU is awful at punt and KO returns. With their athletes, they should shine in this area.

We need to keep doing what we have been doing - Butker KO for TBs and Rodwell (if he has to punt) keep pinning them back with the really high punts that allow coverage.

FSU's massive advantage in breakdown (not overall) is in FGs. 22 of 24 is why they are second in the country. This is as impressive of a game consistency as you can get http://www.cfbstats.com/2014/team/234/kicking/offense/gamelog.html

So we have to win the field position game. Ironically, buried in the 24 FGs is the fact that FSU was stopped and had to settle for a FG 24 times. That is 18th most in CFB. We have tried 18 all year on fewer possessions. And only made 11.

We have to hold FSU to FGs. We need to go for it on fourth down and try some more of those medium depth "onsides" kicks like the one we pulled in the fourth quarter against UGAg.

More to follow:

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Finally, turnovers. This is where we have the biggest advantage. If we are 0 or lose the turnover battle, we lose. If we are +1 it's close. If we are +2 or better, it's a GT win.

Here are the updated stats for FSU after Florida ..... -4!! http://www.cfbstats.com/2014/team/234/turnovermargin/gamelog.html

They have fumbled a lot and thrown a lot of interceptions. We are much better at +11 on the year for total turnovers with our strength being the interceptions.

Conclusion:

• Turnovers will determine the game. How accurate Winston is passing will affect everything. If he has a 2013 type game, we lose. If he has a 2014 type game, we win if we don't turnover.
• We have to run our O like we always do and go for it on fourth. 7>3 and we don't know that Butker's demons are all gone. Against the FSU D, we should be able to convert.
• Our D has to get pressure on Winston. He is tough to get down but has been slowed by a bad ankle. We need to get in his head early and limit their possessions to 10 or less.

Done.

 

[GlennW]

Were these numbers based YTD (year-to-date) statistics? If so, could they be adjusted for the final 5 games only to see how we have been playing on our current streak against "better" competition and after our defensive adjustments?

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Were these numbers based YTD (year-to-date) statistics? If so, could they be adjusted for the final 5 games only to see how we have been playing on our current streak against "better" competition and after our defensive adjustments?

Yes all the numbers were YTD.

And yes they could be adjusted for just the last five games if you have all the rankings 5 games ago and back out how we have performed from the overall changes. @AE did that in the previous thread to some extent.

I sent an e-mail to the Connelly guy who does these and suggested a 4 or 5 week moving average to capture how teams are playing now. We'd be ranked above FSU if you figured only the last five weeks.