Dave Patenaude's Offense

[Milwaukee]

Did you read my entire post?

Yes, we all did.

 

[ibeattetris]

NFL breakdown of under center v shot gun last year on 1 yard to go:

This is pretty crazy. I am not complaining about our play calling, I don't really care, but considering the NFL utilizes both (and we claim to be an NFL offense) then I don't see why people asking for under center should just be shot down for suggesting it. If we want to run 100% of plays from the shotgun, I am all on board. I am just providing data. And no @Milwaukee I won't stfu.

 

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

Going under center isn't a magic pill. You are better off doing what your players practice most in critical downs. Wouldn't have made a difference

Good coaches have and implement all kinds of different QB sets.

 

[Ibeeballin]

NFL breakdown of under center v shot gun last year on 1 yard to go:
View attachment 9277

This is pretty crazy. I am not complaining about our play calling, I don't really care, but considering the NFL utilizes both (and we claim to be an NFL offense) then I don't see why people asking for under center should just be shot down for suggesting it. If we want to run 100% of plays from the shotgun, I am all on board. I am just providing data. And no @Milwaukee I won't stfu.

The issue is correlating under center on short yardage with success when the data says it really doesn’t make a difference

 

[smokey_wasp]

NFL breakdown of under center v shot gun last year on 1 yard to go:
View attachment 9277

This is pretty crazy. I am not complaining about our play calling, I don't really care, but considering the NFL utilizes both (and we claim to be an NFL offense) then I don't see why people asking for under center should just be shot down for suggesting it. If we want to run 100% of plays from the shotgun, I am all on board. I am just providing data. And no @Milwaukee I won't stfu.

Remember, for NFL players, it is a full time job. In college, you are only going to get good at so many things. Our prep time has been even more limited this year. I believe this comes down to visuals. People hate the visual of lining up in shotgun on short yardage just like many hated watching our QB have to scramble back several yards on obvious passing downs in the old offense. But ultimately, you do what you are best at. I am not opposed to lining up under center more. I just don't think it is that important. We just need to get better at executing, either way.

Good coaches have and implement all kinds of different QB sets.

Then we should've been running some shotgun sets with the option.

 

[Ibeeballin]

Remember, for NFL players, it is a full time job. In college, you are only going to get good at so many things. Our prep time has been even more limited this year. I believe this comes down to visuals. People hate the visual of lining up in shotgun on short yardage just like many hated watching our QB have to scramble back several yards on obvious passing downs in the old offense. But ultimately, you do what you are best at. I am not opposed to lining up under center more. I just don't think it is that important


Then we should've been running some shotgun sets with the option.

That took away from base option time lol

 

[ibeattetris]

Remember, for NFL players, it is a full time job. In college, you are only going to get good at so many things. Our prep time has been even more limited this year. I believe this comes down to visuals. People hate the visual of lining up in shotgun on short yardage just like many hated watching our QB have to scramble back several yards on obvious passing downs in the old offense. But ultimately, you do what you are best at. I am not opposed to lining up under center more. I just don't think it is that important. We just need to get better at executing, either way.


Then we should've been running some shotgun sets with the option.

I actually agree with your original post. We practice shotgun, so we should run it. I don’t think lining up under center would have helped us against Clemson at any point. That’s just my opinion though and is based on how I feel. If someone has a differing opinion though, I don’t see why they should just told they are wrong when there is plenty of room for debate.

 

[ibeattetris]

The issue is correlating under center on short yardage with success when the data says it really doesn’t make a difference

Yes, and for our team, we are most likely more successful from shotgun. We just have no data to actually compare to confirm that. We practice and run all other plays from shotgun, so I don’t think we should switch just because it’s short yards to go.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Clemson was also trying to win for much longer in the game against Miami. Our game was over in the second quarter.

They went for it on fourth down multiple times against us deep into the second half and continued throwing passes and deep ones at that when they were already up by 60 points. I don’t know exactly why, but Dabo was definitely not taking his foot off the gas until close to the end.

 

[slugboy]

They went for it on fourth down multiple times against us deep into the second half and continued throwing passes and deep ones at that when they were already up by 60 points. I don’t know exactly why, but Dabo was definitely not taking his foot off the gas until close to the end.

I don’t think he even took his foot off the gas much in the last two minutes.

 

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

Remember, for NFL players, it is a full time job. In college, you are only going to get good at so many things. Our prep time has been even more limited this year. I believe this comes down to visuals. People hate the visual of lining up in shotgun on short yardage just like many hated watching our QB have to scramble back several yards on obvious passing downs in the old offense. But ultimately, you do what you are best at. I am not opposed to lining up under center more. I just don't think it is that important. We just need to get better at executing, either way.


Then we should've been running some shotgun sets with the option.

When the option stopped being productive, yes, perhaps we should have. CPJ DID vary (or attempt to vary) the offense for Vad Lee, but for whatever reason, he gave up on it.

 

[ibeattetris]

Since people seemed to get hot and bothered by what I posted earlier, I decided to calculate the success rate for all plays in the 2019 season of the NFL when 3rd or 4th down and 1 yard to go.

In my opinion, this is truly not enough difference to care. I've already said multiple times that I have no problem with us exclusively running from the shotgun, and this data does not change my opinion. If someone thinks we *should* run under center, I don't see any *data* that can contradict them.

Just to make thing more fair, I decided to then run the same test for the teams in the top quartile of total shotgun play percentage overall. This came out to be Arizona, Baltimore, Chicago, Houston, Kansas City, New York Giants, Philadelphia, and Pittsburgh. The same success rate for the top quartile of shotgun plays came out to be:

Based on this, I would argue that teams that base their offense around being shotgun teams are not more likely to be successful in shotgun in 3rd/4th and 1 than under center. I also don't think this is enough data to assume that under center is better either.

My opinion is still that we should run the plays we find most success with. If that means 100% of all plays is shotgun than I am all aboard. Disputing that under center is not a viable approach to 3rd/4th and 1 though should not be considered a slam dunk.

If people want me to run this with different data, I will. Sadly, ESPN does not provide shotgun data for college football, so I cannot run this for cfb.

 

[LibertyTurns]

How do you know that? Because a bunch of know nothings at Rivals or 247 say so?

We did recruit OK at A-back, but it takes linemen to have a talented team. We aren't even 10th in that department, and if you believe we are, you haven't been watching very much ACC football.

Just using the stat so many people on here are enamored with, recruiting rankings.

 

[GTFLETCH]

CDP needs to be fired... But hell the Defense needs to go also

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

Quick question: Was Clemson under center for any of their 3rd/4th short?

Yes.

To your point though, I agree that the under center approach is not a cure all for short yardage situations.

 

[Jacket05]

Since people seemed to get hot and bothered by what I posted earlier, I decided to calculate the success rate for all plays in the 2019 season of the NFL when 3rd or 4th down and 1 yard to go.
View attachment 9282

In my opinion, this is truly not enough difference to care. I've already said multiple times that I have no problem with us exclusively running from the shotgun, and this data does not change my opinion. If someone thinks we *should* run under center, I don't see any *data* that can contradict them.

Just to make thing more fair, I decided to then run the same test for the teams in the top quartile of total shotgun play percentage overall. This came out to be Arizona, Baltimore, Chicago, Houston, Kansas City, New York Giants, Philadelphia, and Pittsburgh. The same success rate for the top quartile of shotgun plays came out to be:
View attachment 9283

Based on this, I would argue that teams that base their offense around being shotgun teams are not more likely to be successful in shotgun in 3rd/4th and 1 than under center. I also don't think this is enough data to assume that under center is better either.

My opinion is still that we should run the plays we find most success with. If that means 100% of all plays is shotgun than I am all aboard. Disputing that under center is not a viable approach to 3rd/4th and 1 though should not be considered a slam dunk.

If people want me to run this with different data, I will. Sadly, ESPN does not provide shotgun data for college football, so I cannot run this for cfb.

Thanks for the analysis! I think the biggest issue is that the most people arguing to be under center believe it would be statistically more successful, which is not the case.
We have run a couple plays this year under center so it is not like CDP refuses to, but in general he will call more plays from shotgun cause that is our base offense.
In terms of the plays this past game under center likely would not have been successful either. If you think about it, their D line was winning at the line of scrimmage so if you are under center they are going to have pushed the line back and you still have no where to go. At least with shotgun you give the QB and RB a second to see the field and have more room to hopefully find a small hole.

 

[danny daniel]

Yes.

To your point though, I agree that the under center approach is not a cure all for short yardage situations.

Agree that under center is not enough. It needs to be combined with quick hitting plays, more bigger personnel, and power formations. The mentality should be "here we come and stop us if you can": not here we go again to try to out cute you. We obviously need a lot of improvement in many areas but the two areas (not counting turnovers) most affecting our winning is short yardage success and a meaningful pass rush.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

Agree that under center is not enough. It needs to be combined with quick hitting plays, more bigger personnel, and power formations. The mentality should be "here we come and stop us if you can": not here we go again to try to out cute you. We obviously need a lot of improvement in many areas but the two areas (not counting turnovers) most affecting our winning is short yardage success and a meaningful pass rush.

We are tied for 25th in sacks this season so far (41st in average) and 37th in TFL per game. Our pass rush isn't why we are losing. Our secondary is a major problem right now on defense, but our DL has been better than I had hoped for.

 

[Lee]

Agree that under center is not enough. It needs to be combined with quick hitting plays, more bigger personnel, and power formations. The mentality should be "here we come and stop us if you can": not here we go again to try to out cute you. We obviously need a lot of improvement in many areas but the two areas (not counting turnovers) most affecting our winning is short yardage success and a meaningful pass rush.

The bold part might have something to do with our lack of usage. Do you think our “bigger personnel” is going to match up well with most teams we play, much less Clemson?

It’s a nice idea in theory. “Hey we’re just going to line up and force our will on the opponent.” In reality, we don’t have the horses to do that.

While our OL is improved, they are still an average P5 OL. The most physically gifted is 18 years old and will only get stronger. Clemson’s DL is on another level. If you watched the LOS you know who won the battle all day. In fact most of our rushing yards came because our backs made someone miss in the backfield or at the LOS.

I will agree with a point someone made earlier that I think we should utilize how big Sims is and sneak it occasionally when it’s real close.

 

[Jacketman99]

I don’t think he even took his foot off the gas much in the last two minutes.

Atlanta is a huge recruiting area for Clemson. If Dabo can come in here and put on a show for potential recruits he is going to do it every time.