CPJ in One-Score Games

[bke1984]

Ok, some of these games you have as "miracles" that we won, are games that were close throughout most of the game, could've went either way, and our guys made plays to win them. How come you don't list the "miracles" that we lost?

2015 Pitt - they kick a 56? yard FG to win
2016 Pitt - they get a game tying TD on a deflected pass
2017 UT - they recover a late fumble after a long run on a drive that would've iced the game away
2017 Miami - on 4th and 10, they have a receiver catch a deflected pass, while falling to the ground

Why do our own fans want to give the other team all of the credit when they beat us, but whenever we win a tight game, it's random luck?

Fair enough. I need to give credit to the miracle wins and miracle losses.

 

[AE 87]

Valid points for sure...the stats aside argument is addressing everyone that replied that they rely on gut feelings. My entire post originated from a gut feeling I had, and I found data that shows we're losing a lot of close games. Is it all Johnson's fault? Hell no...

Honestly, I think Johsnon has done a great job of getting us into closer games...see below...especially with the higher end opponents on our schedule. So yeah, ultimately the players are the ones that have to make plays...and the stuff you pointed out happened on the field. Whether it's the coach's fault or not, we're still losing more close games than we're winning right now. Maybe we need better players, maybe we need to learn how to defend a bubble screen, maybe we need to focus a bit more on fundamentals...or maybe we will just have the ball bounce our way a few more times. Right now it just seems like 2014 aside, the ball has bounced the other teams way a whole lot more times than it has bounced ours

View attachment 2996

Time to work. Let's just beat Wake (by more than one score, preferably) and move on with the season...

You haven't explained any logic for why this stat is a meaningful for a coach.

Say Coach A beats 10 FCS schools by one score, and Coach B loses to 10 top 10 schools by one score. What does that really say about the relative quality of the two coaches?

 

[bke1984]

Everyone in this thread should read this link. It's a year old but you'll be surprised where the might Nick Saban is on the list.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-f...ootball-coaches-in-close-games-entering-2016/

I still think everyone gravitates towards 50%. CPJ may just be paying back some games given that he was at 57% for his career before last year started.

35% over the past 8 years is pretty low given what everything else on this list looks like

 

[bke1984]

You haven't explained any logic for why this stat is a meaningful for a coach.

Say Coach A beats 10 FCS schools by one score, and Coach B loses to 10 top 10 schools by one score. What does that really say about the relative quality of the two coaches?

Coach B is 0-10 and is going to get fired.

 

[bke1984]

Coach B is 0-10 and is going to get fired.

But in all seriousness, I never intended this to point out that CPJ was a good or a bad coach. It more of an exercise to see how we were doing in close games, and relative to how we've done in the past it's not great. As I stated several times, I think getting to close games is key and that it will ultimately even out with good/bad bounces and players making plays. I stuck some stuff in there about our coach making odd decisions in crunch time situations that probably has skewed the numbers away from 50%, but I don't think the stats can prove that...that's just my opinion.

 

[AE 87]

But in all seriousness, I never intended this to point out that CPJ was a good or a bad coach. It more of an exercise to see how we were doing in close games, and relative to how we've done in the past it's not great. As I stated several times, I think getting to close games is key and that it will ultimately even out with good/bad bounces and players making plays. I stuck some stuff in there about our coach making odd decisions in crunch time situations that probably has skewed the numbers away from 50%, but I don't think the stats can prove that...that's just my opinion.

FWIW, the post about 10 close games assumed multiple seasons. I thought talking about winning 10 FCS games would've made that clear. I get it that you were making a joke, but like the premise of this thread in my opinion, the premise of the joke was unfounded.

In other words, you are missing my point about the premise of the thread. You have not provided any logic for suggesting that close games should average out to 50%. I understand that this was your assumption. However, it needs to be argued. As I said earlier in my post to Cuse, if you did it against the spread, then I think you'd have a more reasonable stat. However, if you lose by 4 to a team that was projected to beat you by 14, then I simply don't accept the premise that you should have been 50-50 against them. I also don't accept the premise that all coaches will have as many of those games as they have winning by 4 when projected to win by 14. I don't see any logic for saying that coaches should average out to 50% on close games. Again, I am willing to listen to your explanation if you have one.

Also, I find it disingenuous for you to say that you did not intend this thread to suggest that CPJ is not a good coach. You said in the op, "Well, as we've all said before, if winning close games is the difference between good seasons and average seasons then we've got some work to do...and it seems like our head coach in particular has had a problem with this since he's been the only constant over those 10 years." You explicitly use the stat to draw a conclusion about CPJ.

 

[JacketFromUGA]

I will say the gripe of "We need to be able to put teams away and not let them hang around" is one all college teams seem to share. Oklahoma fans have been yelling this all weekend as well.

 

[BobintheATL99]

It would also lead to us winning more blowouts...more wins of all kinds actually. Now we just have to figure out how to recruit a 5 star 300lb DT every year.

We're in that boat with every college program south of Alabama...

 

[bke1984]

FWIW, the post about 10 close games assumed multiple seasons. I thought talking about winning 10 FCS games would've made that clear. I get it that you were making a joke, but like the premise of this thread in my opinion, the premise of the joke was unfounded.

In other words, you are missing my point about the premise of the thread. You have not provided any logic for suggesting that close games should average out to 50%. I understand that this was your assumption. However, it needs to be argued. As I said earlier in my post to Cuse, if you did it against the spread, then I think you'd have a more reasonable stat. However, if you lose by 4 to a team that was projected to beat you by 14, then I simply don't accept the premise that you should have been 50-50 against them. I also don't accept the premise that all coaches will have as many of those games as they have winning by 4 when projected to win by 14. I don't see any logic for saying that coaches should average out to 50% on close games. Again, I am willing to listen to your explanation if you have one.

Also, I find it disingenuous for you to say that you did not intend this thread to suggest that CPJ is not a good coach. You said in the op, "Well, as we've all said before, if winning close games is the difference between good seasons and average seasons then we've got some work to do...and it seems like our head coach in particular has had a problem with this since he's been the only constant over those 10 years." You explicitly use the stat to draw a conclusion about CPJ.

Honestly man, I'm sure I could spend a week compiling data to build a better argument for the statistic, but I just don't have the time nor the desire to do so. Our coach HAS had a problem winning these games lately. We've only won 35% of the games decided by one score or less over the past 8 years. Paul Johnson has been our coach the past 8 years. Why he's had a problem is up for you to form your own opinion. I don't think, nor have I ever stated that he's a bad coach or we should go a different direction.

 

[AE 87]

Honestly man, I'm sure I could spend a week compiling data to build a better argument for the statistic, but I just don't have the time nor the desire to do so. Our coach HAS had a problem winning these games lately. We've only won 35% of the games decided by one score or less over the past 8 years. Paul Johnson has been our coach the past 8 years. Why he's had a problem is up for you to form your own opinion. I don't think, nor have I ever stated that he's a bad coach or we should go a different direction.

Listen, I'm not looking for you to compile data. I'm just asking you to explain the logic behind assuming that he should be able to win a higher % of close games, as if they're all created equal. I've given you what I consider to be decent reasons why I consider it a bad assumption. Yes, we've lost a lot of close games. So what? As I've said before, the same stat could support that he's done a good job keeping us close and giving us a shot against much better teams. Like I've said, it seems to me to be a meaningless stat. I was just wanting some rationale. It seems you have none.

 

[bke1984]

Listen, I'm not looking for you to compile data. I'm just asking you to explain the logic behind assuming that he should be able to win a higher % of close games, as if they're all created equal. I've given you what I consider to be decent reasons why I consider it a bad assumption. Yes, we've lost a lot of close games. So what? As I've said before, the same stat could support that he's done a good job keeping us close and giving us a shot against much better teams. Like I've said, it seems to me to be a meaningless stat. I was just wanting some rationale. It seems you have none.

The rationale is that if you're in more close games you should be winning more games overall. As you pointed out in your prior post, a single play can change the outcome of a one score game, so you'd expect to pick up some of these games just by dumb luck at some point, right? Things like tipped passes, dumb safeties, crazy fumble returns, etc. But we're not...we're losing. That seems odd to me that over an 8 year span we're that far in the red.

 

[AE 87]

The rationale is that if you're in more close games you should be winning more games overall. As you pointed out in your prior post, a single play can change the outcome of a one score game, so you'd expect to pick up some of these games just by dumb luck at some point, right? Things like tipped passes, dumb safeties, crazy fumble returns, etc. But we're not...we're losing. That seems odd to me that over an 8 year span we're that far in the red.

No. I don't see any reason to think that all or even a majority of 1 score games are like that. I don't think fluke plays happen that often. In fact, I don't see any reason to think that you don't have just as many games becoming only 1 score games because of some fluke play as you have 1 score games flipping to one winner or the other.

I understand that this post reflects your operating assumption, but I've been trying to say that I don't see any logic behind the assumption. Football games are not coin flips. The actual match-ups matter.

Serious question: Do you really believe that depth of talent has less of an impact on close games than the coach? If an opponent can keep their players fresher because they have better depth, don't you think that would impact how well they play in the 4th quarter? Or is that just beside the point?

 

[AE 87]

@bke1984 -- Another data point that it might be helpful for you to explain for me to better understand your use of this statistic is the per-season numbers for Johnson. From 2008 to 2016, here are the % of close games we've won: 71, 83, 33, 60, 0, 25, 50, 14, 75. If this stat was actually reflective of the coach in close games, why isn't it more consistent?

 

[iceeater1969]

@bke1984 -- Another data point that it might be helpful for you to explain for me to better understand your use of this statistic is the per-season numbers for Johnson. From 2008 to 2016, here are the % of close games we've won: 71, 83, 33, 60, 0, 25, 50, 14, 75. If this stat was actually reflective of the coach in close games, why isn't it more consistent?

0 % (2 close games)so far this year. If we have 6 close games and win them all we could be at 75%. We need to kick it with 3 of the games and win w close ones for a good year @50!

 

[Lee]

Do you really believe that depth of talent has less of an impact on close games than the coach? If an opponent can keep their players fresher because they have better depth, don't you think that would impact how well they play in the 4th quarter? Or is that just beside the point?

Is recruiting and player development not part of his job? I don't get your complete dismissal of the stats. Don't get me wrong, I rode the MTrain so I'm sure I'm not nearly as smart as all of you engineers. Is it a coincidence that he was better at winning one score games with the players Gailey recruited? Has he lost his late game swagger? I don't know the answer to that. I do know I felt a lot better early in his time here when our offense got the ball late in the game to ice the game away than I do now. I feel like our offense has turned more into a big play or FG attempt or punt O over the past few years. At least since 2014. The "death march" seems like a thing of the past, at least when we really need it. I know Nesbitt was a huge part of the death march because he was automatic on 4th and short.

On another note, when our D is on the field with the game on the line, I assume we are going to lose. I don't think I'm alone in feeling this way. (And yes I know, they made several stops late in the UM game).

To your point on whether or not we are in more close games with PJ. That is irrelevant to this conversation in my opinion. No one that I've seen is saying PJ isn't a great coach. He is and he gets more out of less than probably anyone in coaching. That doesn't change the fact that we are not closing games out. Most people that have been around for a while could see the UT loss coming halfway through the 3rd quarter and the UM loss when the rained started.

I don't know the answer, but I personally feel like PJ's playcalling at the end of games has not been as good as it was early in his career. Obviously our D really struggles on last drive scenarios. Regardless, I hope we right the ship this week and can make a miracle happen in 2 weeks.

 

[bke1984]

Is recruiting and player development not part of his job? I don't get your complete dismissal of the stats. Don't get me wrong, I rode the MTrain so I'm sure I'm not nearly as smart as all of you engineers. Is it a coincidence that he was better at winning one score games with the players Gailey recruited? Has he lost his late game swagger? I don't know the answer to that. I do know I felt a lot better early in his time here when our offense got the ball late in the game to ice the game away than I do now. I feel like our offense has turned more into a big play or FG attempt or punt O over the past few years. At least since 2014. The "death march" seems like a thing of the past, at least when we really need it. I know Nesbitt was a huge part of the death march because he was automatic on 4th and short.

On another note, when our D is on the field with the game on the line, I assume we are going to lose. I don't think I'm alone in feeling this way. (And yes I know, they made several stops late in the UM game).

To your point on whether or not we are in more close games with PJ. That is irrelevant to this conversation in my opinion. No one that I've seen is saying PJ isn't a great coach. He is and he gets more out of less than probably anyone in coaching. That doesn't change the fact that we are not closing games out. Most people that have been around for a while could see the UT loss coming halfway through the 3rd quarter and the UM loss when the rained started.

I don't know the answer, but I personally feel like PJ's playcalling at the end of games has not been as good as it was early in his career. Obviously our D really struggles on last drive scenarios. Regardless, I hope we right the ship this week and can make a miracle happen in 2 weeks.

You and I are basically on the same page here...with the exception that I hope we correct this week...Wake is no pushover.

 

[AE 87]

Is recruiting and player development not part of his job? I don't get your complete dismissal of the stats. Don't get me wrong, I rode the MTrain so I'm sure I'm not nearly as smart as all of you engineers. Is it a coincidence that he was better at winning one score games with the players Gailey recruited? Has he lost his late game swagger? I don't know the answer to that. I do know I felt a lot better early in his time here when our offense got the ball late in the game to ice the game away than I do now. I feel like our offense has turned more into a big play or FG attempt or punt O over the past few years. At least since 2014. The "death march" seems like a thing of the past, at least when we really need it. I know Nesbitt was a huge part of the death march because he was automatic on 4th and short.

On another note, when our D is on the field with the game on the line, I assume we are going to lose. I don't think I'm alone in feeling this way. (And yes I know, they made several stops late in the UM game).

To your point on whether or not we are in more close games with PJ. That is irrelevant to this conversation in my opinion. No one that I've seen is saying PJ isn't a great coach. He is and he gets more out of less than probably anyone in coaching. That doesn't change the fact that we are not closing games out. Most people that have been around for a while could see the UT loss coming halfway through the 3rd quarter and the UM loss when the rained started.

I don't know the answer, but I personally feel like PJ's playcalling at the end of games has not been as good as it was early in his career. Obviously our D really struggles on last drive scenarios. Regardless, I hope we right the ship this week and can make a miracle happen in 2 weeks.

I was going to say that this was the op's point but saw he already said it.

It does not actually respond to my questions though.

 

[InsideLB]

Having a good kicker belps win close games. Butker was good for 1 -2 wins on FGs alone