1. Welcome to Georgia Tech Swarm! JOIN US and be a part of the SWARM! GO JACKETS! THWg!

Connelly's Pre-Season SP+ Rankings

Discussion in 'Georgia Tech Football' started by Cam, Feb 15, 2020.

  1. Cam

    Cam Helluva Engineer

    Messages:
    1,552
    Bill Connelly is a big stats guy who did a pretty good job predicting the early performance of teams last year with his 2019 preseason rankings. He recently released his 2020 preseason rankings based on his algorithm. He has us ranked 58th overall, but what's most interesting to me is he ranked our defense 35th. This is based on:
    It's also not explicitly stated what the effects of transfers INTO the program have on his rankings and if that's included in recruiting. I'm wondering if that counts as a production transfer from one team to another. Because I'd imagine the additions of Cochran, Johnson, and Ezzard should dramatically improve our 104th ranking on offense. Either way, it's encouraging to see how much some advanced stats back up the feeling that our defense will be much, much better in the near future.
     
    GT14, CuseJacket, slugboy and 2 others like this.
  2. smokey_wasp

    smokey_wasp Helluva Engineer

    Messages:
    3,980
    Seems we were pretty hard on Bill and his projections last year....
     
    MostDefinitely likes this.
  3. slugboy

    slugboy Moderator Staff Member

    Messages:
    3,461
    Yes, he was called an idiot for projecting us to go 3-9 last season


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
    GT14, rodandanga, UpperNorth and 4 others like this.
  4. jgtengineer

    jgtengineer Helluva Engineer

    Messages:
    1,313
    Thats because he had us winning the wrong 3. I mean he didnt predict the juggernaut that was the citadel.
     
  5. lv20gt

    lv20gt Helluva Engineer

    Messages:
    2,992
    What do you mean "we" kemosabi?
     
  6. bwelbo

    bwelbo Helluva Engineer

    Messages:
    11,315
    And deservedly so. There was no reason to go 3-9 last year. And he had a history of predicting us to finish 10-12th in the ACC for years...and then we’d finish 4th and 5th. I think he’s a big idiot.
     
    CTJacket and GTRanj2 like this.
  7. Cam

    Cam Helluva Engineer

    Messages:
    1,552
    I mean... there was at least SOME reason to go 3-9 last year. Over 50% of his algorithm is predicated on returning production, of which we ranked like 119th last year. And our recruiting strategy on offense in the past threw a lot of numerical metrics out the window. For what it's worth, nobody ever predicted GT under Johnson accurately. Not even GTs fans.
     
  8. bwelbo

    bwelbo Helluva Engineer

    Messages:
    11,315
    Right. But we had 1 year of the last 25 where we were under 0.500 in ACC play. He regularly predicted us to.
     
  9. YJMD

    YJMD Helluva Engineer

    Messages:
    1,068
    Him? Or the computer model he made?
     
  10. bwelbo

    bwelbo Helluva Engineer

    Messages:
    11,315
    Him, because of the model he made and how he uses it. :D
     
  11. smokey_wasp

    smokey_wasp Helluva Engineer

    Messages:
    3,980
    Unfortunately, despite our improvement, there are still 9 teams on our schedule ranked ahead of us by this metric.
     
    CuseJacket likes this.
  12. slugboy

    slugboy Moderator Staff Member

    Messages:
    3,461
    I posted some of his numbers in the College and Pro Sports forum, but to have a good season it looks like the easiest path is to improve more on offense than expected.
    We’re currently projected as the #104 offense. If we improve our blocking to even average levels—not even average P5, but just average–we should be better than that. Our strength of schedule is a hill to climb, though


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
    CuseJacket likes this.
  13. CuseJacket

    CuseJacket Administrator Staff Member

    Messages:
    13,369
    Also relevant to predicted improvement this year:
     
  14. AlabamaBuzz

    AlabamaBuzz Helluva Engineer

    Messages:
    2,780
    Sounds about right.
     
  15. smokey_wasp

    smokey_wasp Helluva Engineer

    Messages:
    3,980
    Everyone except Duke, Syracuse and Gardner Webb (who obviously doesn't get a ranking). I am still cautiously optimistic for next season, but there just aren't many slam dunk wins on this schedule, so there isn't any margin for error if we want to get to 6 wins. Gotta win the ones we should, plus the toss-ups, plus maybe 1 we shouldn't. Doable, but challenging.
     
    Last edited: Feb 17, 2020
  16. a5ehren

    a5ehren Helluva Engineer

    Messages:
    396
    Transfers in are not included in returning production.

    He's addressed it before, basically saying that:
    1) There is no way to know where they fit on the depth chart before the fall
    2) They're usually transfers for a reason, so it isn't a big deal. If you're counting on (for example) an OL from Vanderbilt to help you dramatically you will probably be disappointed.

    In special cases (think Justin Fields) he will use that a reason to disagree with the model in his writing, but he doesn't touch the model to account for it.
     
  17. a5ehren

    a5ehren Helluva Engineer

    Messages:
    396
    Also, FWIW these numbers mean we should be roughly 10.5 point underdogs at home against UCF.
     
  18. link3945

    link3945 Jolly Good Fellow

    Messages:
    38
    Which is exactly how you should use a model. A model should not be an end-all-be-all. It should be a quantitative way to get a starting point on every team, based on past experience. From there, you see what the model is saying, and look at why it thinks these things. That can tell you a lot about who may or may not over-achieve.
     

Share This Page