Conference Realignment

[stinger78]

For #1, FSU can definitely get out. It is written in the ACC bylaws. They just have to submit their notice to the ACC by early August, pay the withdrawal fee, and forego their media rights until 2036. However, I assume your question if more about if FSU will get out. That remains to be seen.

I was referring to the GOR. Should have been more specific.

My main contention is with those who think a jailbreak will occur if F$U slips out. It won’t. There aren’t enough places to go that they add sufficient value to.

 

[Richard7125]

Something else I thought about, but not being a lawyer, I don't know how it would work. FSU has asked that their notice to leave the ACC be entered and be backdated to August of 2023. When the venue is finally settled, could the ACC submit to the court that they accept FSU's notice to leave, but only dispute the date of the notice? Could the court decide that FSU has entered notice to leave the ACC and that the effective date would either be August of 2023 or December of 2023 depending on the decision of the court? Could the ACC acquiesce to the backdating, and just ask the court to give FSU what it wants on that particular point? If they did so, could FSU do anything to prevent the court from entering a judgement that FSU has withdrawn from the ACC? FSU asked for that specifically. If the ACC agreed to it specifically, why would the court do anything except enter it as a decision? It seems to me that it would hurt FSU's negotiating power. It wouldn't be FSU arguing about potential results of potential actions. It would only be FSU fighting to not pay the amounts that FSU themselves stated in court filings would be due.

With regard to the timing, most reasonable sports journalists that I have read have been saying that 2030 or so was the time frame for teams to leave the ACC. The GOR hit would be much less, even manageable. The ability to get a full share will be much higher since the Big10's contract runs out in 2030. If FSU is able to reach a settlement, they will still make less money than the rest of the ACC for about six years. Acting now makes the settlement larger, and the length of time making less money longer. If they are going to join the Big10, they could wait five more years to announce. Pay the entire withdrawal fee. Pay a settlement for the GOR that is left. They would make more money between now and then. They would pay less of a settlement to the conference, even if they didn't fight and paid full amounts at that point. They would also immediately make more money in 2030. If it is only getting out of the ACC as soon as possible as you say, it is going to cost FSU a boatload of money in settlement and lost revenue vs just waiting a few years. Plus in the next few years, there are things happening outside of the control of the ACC that could eliminate the need to take any legal action at all.

Think of it this way - FSU powerbrokers are looking at the ACC the same way Tech looked at Geoff Collins. Stansbury was taking the approach you are advocating – the ROI is much better if we wait another year or two. The Tech powerbrokers and people with money said – we will pay to get rid of Collins. FSU powerbrokers are saying – we will pay to get out of the ACC. It's not about maximizing ROI in the short term.

 

[orientalnc]

Think of it this way - FSU powerbrokers are looking at the ACC the same way Tech looked at Geoff Collins. Stansbury was taking the approach you are advocating – the ROI is much better if we wait another year or two. The Tech powerbrokers and people with money said – we will pay to get rid of Collins. FSU powerbrokers are saying – we will pay to get out of the ACC. It's not about maximizing ROI in the short term.

I see your point, but the situations are very different. GT was at a very critical point with the football program and had to make a move. You can argue about the options they considered for the next coach, but something had to be done soon. FSU is in a good situation but thinks they could do better. They think they should be dating Taylor Swift and are trying to figure out an affordable method of getting Kelce out of the picture. It might be doable, but ain't likely.

 

[RonJohn]

Think of it this way - FSU powerbrokers are looking at the ACC the same way Tech looked at Geoff Collins. Stansbury was taking the approach you are advocating – the ROI is much better if we wait another year or two. The Tech powerbrokers and people with money said – we will pay to get rid of Collins. FSU powerbrokers are saying – we will pay to get out of the ACC. It's not about maximizing ROI in the short term.

I understand that. However, the big-level FSU boosters don't have the money to pay to exit the ACC. They were actually looking at taking out a $500 million loan last year. Apparently, the GT boosters were able to provide the $10 plus million it took to get rid of Collins. If it was only $20-$30 million, the FSU boosters would just pay it.

 

[UgaBlows]

 

[stinger78]

Please let it be so.

 

[orientalnc]

This was posted on Warchant almost two weeks ago. The BOT approved the idea of loaning the AA money, but not the specific loan. $500 million is a lot of money and the State of Florida might have an interest in how the loan will be secured. Especially since it is taxpayer money. Also, the fans of UF, da U, and UCF might me somewhat incensed by their tax dollars being used to prop up FSU football.

 

[billga99]

This was posted on Warchant almost two weeks ago. The BOT approved the idea of loaning the AA money, but not the specific loan. $500 million is a lot of money and the State of Florida might have an interest in how the loan will be secured. Especially since it is taxpayer money. Also, the fans of UF, da U, and UCF might me somewhat incensed by their tax dollars being used to prop up FSU football.

ESPN has to want the ACC to fight this tooth and nail. They control the South now from TX to VA between the SEC and ACC.

 

[gtbb]

For #1, FSU can definitely get out. It is written in the ACC bylaws. They just have to submit their notice to the ACC by early August, pay the withdrawal fee, and forego their media rights until 2036. However, I assume your question if more about if FSU will get out. That remains to be seen.

They wouldn't have filed their lawsuit if they weren't sure they're going to leave. It's not really an "if" question at this point. It's a "when" and "for how much". They could be around the ACC for a few more years for sure. But they're going to leave. And they wouldn't file this lawsuit unless they knew they had a home waiting for them when they do leave. The B1G has become a national conference, stretching from NYC all the way to Seattle and LA. The only area that is outside their footprint is the South. FSU will very likely join the Big Ten when the dust settles. Might be a while, though.

And other programs are watching this play out. UNC, Miami, and Clemson are letting FSU be the first to go through the door. Once FSU has settled with the ACC, we'll know how much it costs to get out of this conference. I hope Tech is doing all it can to make itself attractive to the B1G.

The fact that the SEC & B1G now have this joint advisory group out in the open means they've been talking behind closed doors for months. The ACC - much as I hate to admit it - is on the outside looking in. And we're going to be in a Power 2 breakaway world sooner rather than later.

 

[L41k18]

The ACC - much as I hate to admit it - is on the outside looking in. And we're going to be in a Power 2 breakaway world sooner rather than later.

I must be the only one who doesn't care if this happens. Whatever grouping Tech is in when the dust temporarily clears (and nothing is ever permanent of course) I just want Tech to be competitive.

 

[RonJohn]

They wouldn't have filed their lawsuit if they weren't sure they're going to leave. It's not really an "if" question at this point. It's a "when" and "for how much". They could be around the ACC for a few more years for sure. But they're going to leave. And they wouldn't file this lawsuit unless they knew they had a home waiting for them when they do leave. The B1G has become a national conference, stretching from NYC all the way to Seattle and LA. The only area that is outside their footprint is the South. FSU will very likely join the Big Ten when the dust settles. Might be a while, though.

I think you are right that FSU is planning to leave. However, I think it is still open if they actually will. If they are stuck with a $500million plus buyout and will make less money per year for the next 5-6 years, they might decide it isn't feasible. The last FSU president and athletic administrator made statements about being happy in the ACC. The ACC has a quote in their amended filing quoting a former FSU Board of Trustees member who said that the GOR was the best thing for FSU and the ACC because nobody can afford to leave the conference with it in place. He was on the Board of Trustees until 2020. It is possible that before FSU leaves, there are new BOT members, a new president, and a new AD. IF there is a new AD, FSU might decide not to leave the ACC yet. A long winded way of saying that even though FSU is fighting hard right now to leave, we don't know what will happen in the future.

I do not buy that FSU has a home waiting for them. The Big10 is very unlikely to pay a full media payout until the end of the current contract. They didn't for Oregon. ESPN has reportedly rejected requests from SEC for more money. Why would ESPN pay a full SEC share for FSU, when they already have FSU content at a lower price? Why would either the SEC or Big10 have actual on-the-record discussions and offers when it opens them up to lawsuits for tortious interference? The only argument I have heard about FSU actually having an offer in hand, is that they wouldn't be crazy enough to file this lawsuit if they didn't. However, if you read their initial filing, it does not read like a well thought out legal action. It reads more like a fanboy forum post that goes into emotional detail about how FSU was screwed over. I think it is more likely that FSU believes that if they make things difficult enough, that the ACC will cave in and let them have everything they want.

Also, there are programs in the ACC that are more attractive to the Big10. There has been a lot of speculation that both the Big10 and SEC want UNC and UVA. To get into Florida, I think the Big10 would rather have Miami as a member than FSU. Miami shows up higher on most of the "brand" rankings that I have seen. Miami is an AAU member. Both are in the state of Florida. IF Miami were to join the Big10, there isn't a need for another member from Florida. I am pretty certain that there isn't an immediate home with a higher media payout than they are currently getting from the ACC. I think it is only questionable whether FSU would find a home in either of the top 2 conferences at all if the ACC collapses.

I think the best option for FSU to get what they want would be for the NCAA to fall apart or split, and cause a complete realignment of college sports and conferences. If that happens, the FSU would need this lawsuit.

 

[WreckinGT]

ESPN has to want the ACC to fight this tooth and nail. They control the South now from TX to VA between the SEC and ACC.

I'm not sure ESPN is as in love with the ACC as everyone seems to think. They have chosen not to exercise their 2027 option up to this point. If FSU were to leave the ACC and possibly others then ESPN can simply not exercise that option and scoop up the remains of the ACC at a lesser rate while putting their primary focus on the SEC.

 

[SOWEGA Jacket]

. The ACC - much as I hate to admit it - is on the outside looking in. And we're going to be in a Power 2 breakaway world sooner rather than later.

The ACC has been on the outside looking in for at least a decade. We haven’t had a team in the playoffs for 2 years and our invites to March Madness have dwindled to second tier status. This conference needs to just die if the leadership continues to do nothing but fights its own members. They are a SNL skit at this point. Next year, the playoff field will triple and the ACC will get 1 invite.

 

[Vespidae]

I'm not sure ESPN is as in love with the ACC as everyone seems to think. They have chosen not to exercise their 2027 option up to this point. If FSU were to leave the ACC and possibly others then ESPN can simply not exercise that option and scoop up the remains of the ACC at a lesser rate while putting their primary focus on the SEC.

Or couldn't Fox or CBS take over? I would think CBS would love to back in the mix.

 

[slugboy]

Or couldn't Fox or CBS take over? I would think CBS would love to back in the mix.

Or even NBC, to get the remaining Notre Dame games

 

[roadkill]

I think you are right that FSU is planning to leave. However, I think it is still open if they actually will. If they are stuck with a $500million plus buyout and will make less money per year for the next 5-6 years, they might decide it isn't feasible. The last FSU president and athletic administrator made statements about being happy in the ACC. The ACC has a quote in their amended filing quoting a former FSU Board of Trustees member who said that the GOR was the best thing for FSU and the ACC because nobody can afford to leave the conference with it in place. He was on the Board of Trustees until 2020. It is possible that before FSU leaves, there are new BOT members, a new president, and a new AD. IF there is a new AD, FSU might decide not to leave the ACC yet. A long winded way of saying that even though FSU is fighting hard right now to leave, we don't know what will happen in the future.

I do not buy that FSU has a home waiting for them. The Big10 is very unlikely to pay a full media payout until the end of the current contract. They didn't for Oregon. ESPN has reportedly rejected requests from SEC for more money. Why would ESPN pay a full SEC share for FSU, when they already have FSU content at a lower price? Why would either the SEC or Big10 have actual on-the-record discussions and offers when it opens them up to lawsuits for tortious interference? The only argument I have heard about FSU actually having an offer in hand, is that they wouldn't be crazy enough to file this lawsuit if they didn't. However, if you read their initial filing, it does not read like a well thought out legal action. It reads more like a fanboy forum post that goes into emotional detail about how FSU was screwed over. I think it is more likely that FSU believes that if they make things difficult enough, that the ACC will cave in and let them have everything they want.

Also, there are programs in the ACC that are more attractive to the Big10. There has been a lot of speculation that both the Big10 and SEC want UNC and UVA. To get into Florida, I think the Big10 would rather have Miami as a member than FSU. Miami shows up higher on most of the "brand" rankings that I have seen. Miami is an AAU member. Both are in the state of Florida. IF Miami were to join the Big10, there isn't a need for another member from Florida. I am pretty certain that there isn't an immediate home with a higher media payout than they are currently getting from the ACC. I think it is only questionable whether FSU would find a home in either of the top 2 conferences at all if the ACC collapses.

I think the best option for FSU to get what they want would be for the NCAA to fall apart or split, and cause a complete realignment of college sports and conferences. If that happens, the FSU would need this lawsuit.

Agree with your take.

With the stakes this high, you would expect a competent entity embarking on this process to have a well-thought-out plan that included either advance commitments or high-probability events occurring. There is no evidence of any of this. FSU is acting like they are still exploring options. One of them is to accept that the $500M+ payout can't be avoided, so they and their BoT are looking at ways of financing it. To put it in perspective, they appear to be willing to go into nearly twice as much debt as we have, but without a capital asset improvement to show for it. They also haven't shown much in their filings that underpins a strong case against the ACC.

This is the behavior of a school that had already made an impulsive decision to leave the ACC and, after the high wore off, is now throwing stuff against the wall and hoping something sticks to alleviate their problems.

 

[orientalnc]

I think the option is for the ACC Network, not the games themselves.

 

[WreckinGT]

Or couldn't Fox or CBS take over? I would think CBS would love to back in the mix.

CBS doesn't have room for that much content, nor are they going to open up weekday time slots for content. They could but a slot every Saturday at noon if they wanted to expand a little. Fox probably has more room but I have no clue what their desire would be considering they already have the majority of the Big 10 games and a part of the Big 12. During the Pac 12 media negotiations they basically offered a small amount for B tier games. They could do the same for the ACC. In the end we probably end up with a multi partner agreement similar to the Big 12 for a good bit less than we are making now.

 

[UgaBlows]

This was posted on Warchant almost two weeks ago. The BOT approved the idea of loaning the AA money, but not the specific loan. $500 million is a lot of money and the State of Florida might have an interest in how the loan will be secured. Especially since it is taxpayer money. Also, the fans of UF, da U, and UCF might me somewhat incensed by their tax dollars being used to prop up FSU football.

Well I realize that, but nobody has posted it here and I think it's relevant to how crazy these FSU people are about this and how far they are potentially willing to go to get out

 

[UgaBlows]

I'm not sure ESPN is as in love with the ACC as everyone seems to think. They have chosen not to exercise their 2027 option up to this point. If FSU were to leave the ACC and possibly others then ESPN can simply not exercise that option and scoop up the remains of the ACC at a lesser rate while putting their primary focus on the SEC.

I think you’re right about that, everyone says that espn is getting this great deal with the ACC contract but the ratings for fb games that don’t include fsu, clemson, miami, and ND are God-awful Compared to the SEC or BIG games. Even ND game ratings vs. ACC other than fsu and Clemson are way lower than their norm. What good is all that content if nobody watches 90% of it? They could potentially be better off to snag the best teams or markets and add them to the SEC for max ratings. Keep the products that sell, dump the rest, then maybe resign whats left for peanuts when they come begging and put them on the filler channels or streaming.