Conference Realignment

RonJohn

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We'll see. I suspect the SEC and B1G have enough clout that they will set rules and policies that are advantageous for their respective leagues, and the rest of the conferences can take it or go on their merry way. Since ESPN (SEC) and FOX (B1G) ultimately hold the biggest war chests, I don't see the rest of the conferences having too much of a choice other than going with it.

It won't be too much longer before the SEC and B1G are so far ahead of everyone that the rest of the conferences will play by a different set of rules. SEC and B1G will probably embrace a more "professional" model, and the other conferences given the shrinking pool of money will have to operate with a different set of rules and policies.
What I am saying isn't different than that, except for the other conferences "going with it". I think the Big10 and SEC might not even be in the NCAA in a few years. The other conferences won't have to follow their lead, because the other conferences might not even have any association with them. It could be the NAIA, the NCAA, and whatever the P2 call themselves.
 

Techster

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What I am saying isn't different than that, except for the other conferences "going with it". I think the Big10 and SEC might not even be in the NCAA in a few years. The other conferences won't have to follow their lead, because the other conferences might not even have any association with them. It could be the NAIA, the NCAA, and whatever the P2 call themselves.

That's what I was getting at, however, I believe the ACC and Big 12 will still want to play at the level of B1G and SEC for as long as they can. In that case, it'll be "our way or go your way" with the new set of rules and policies that will ultimately come out.

Personally, I don't see the NCAA around much longer. Maybe in another form since some type of neutral party is needed, but it won't be the NCAA as we know it now.
 

billga99

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What I am saying isn't different than that, except for the other conferences "going with it". I think the Big10 and SEC might not even be in the NCAA in a few years. The other conferences won't have to follow their lead, because the other conferences might not even have any association with them. It could be the NAIA, the NCAA, and whatever the P2 call themselves.
I agree they will split off. But my guess is it will be for football. There are advantages to have NCAA tournaments for other sports. But create their own superconferences and rules for football seems very realistic. Most of the TV money is associated with football anyway.
 

Root4GT

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The 85 scholarship limit will likely be in jeopardy. They will dry up as much talent as they can. Better to have a guy on your bench than playing against you plus it weakens the competition. One of the big reasons GT left the SEC.
That just means more transfers. Good players want to play.
 

Bogey

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Then there is no reason to make it an issue.
a civil case is essentially a dispute between private parties, doesn't need a crime to have been committed. I would think evidence of dereliction of duties in favor of nepotism could help return a ruling in your favor, depending on the strength of the evidence and the skills of the presenting lawyers.
 
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Vespidae

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a civil case is essentially a dispute between private parties, doesn't need a crime to have been committed. I would think evidence of dereliction of duties in favor of nepotism could help pursuade a jury to rule in your favor, depending on the strength of the evidence and the skills of the presenting lawyers.
That's nonsense. Swofford can claim that it was in the ACC's interests to maintain a healthy local distributor of content regardless of who was employed there. And it would be up to FSU to prove otherwise.

Bob Woodruff at Coke did it for decades through his relationship at White Trucks. Two firms I worked for did it. It's not an issue legally despite what most think.

As lawyers will point out, FSU did not suffer losses by membership in the ACC, only benefits. And they are free to associate with others that might be even greater. But suing because my membership isn't as good as a different membership is going to be hard to convince when you signed it 3 times.
 

Bogey

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That's nonsense. Swofford can claim that it was in the ACC's interests to maintain a healthy local distributor of content regardless of who was employed there. And it would be up to FSU to prove otherwise.

Bob Woodruff at Coke did it for decades through his relationship at White Trucks. Two firms I worked for did it. It's not an issue legally despite what most think.

As lawyers will point out, FSU did not suffer losses by membership in the ACC, only benefits. And they are free to associate with others that might be even greater. But suing because my membership isn't as good as a different membership is going to be hard to convince when you signed it 3 times.
I agree they must first prove harm, which will be very difficult, before any issue with Swafford's dealings become relevant.
Let's move on. :)
 

orientalnc

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a civil case is essentially a dispute between private parties, doesn't need a crime to have been committed. I would think evidence of dereliction of duties in favor of nepotism could help return a ruling in your favor, depending on the strength of the evidence and the skills of the presenting lawyers.
Nepotism is a very difficult issue in a civil case because you have to show intent to give material benefits to relatives that would not have flowed to them on the merits. And the merits in this this case are not easy.

Something to realize with this. FSU says they would have made more money as an ACC member if the ACC had made better business decisions. That may be true, but is it a violation of their membership in the ACC? FSU chose to be a member of the ACC at a time when their ability to earn money to finance their programs was being negatively impacted by their status as an independent. Later, when Miami, VPI, and BC joined the ACC they were very happy. Everyday in the business world people make decisions that, in retrospect, seem to the bad decisions or good decisions. It may turn out that the ACC contract with ESPN is the best they could have gotten. But, the quality of that decision is not a violation of FSU's membership contract with the ACC.
 

gtbb

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Well, I guess we all knew the SEC and B1G would rule the college sports kingdom...and now they're making preparations for laying down the rules of the "new" kingdom. Bye bye NCAA...your time is dwindling...








This is bad news for the ACC & Big 12. The SEC & B1G are sitting down for dinner. We weren't invited to the table, which means we're on the menu.

FSU might take some time & money to sort out. But I don't see anyway they remain in the ACC. It's a matter of when and not if. Once they leave, then the rest of the dominos in the conference start to fall. UNC & UVA probably to the SEC. The SEC wants UNC, and will need a partner. So, the SEC grabs UVA as well, to add two states to their footprint.

FSU & Miami to the B1G. The Big Ten wants into Florida, and FSU is their ticket. Not sure about Clemson. They're a great program, but they don't bring as much money as FSU to the B1G, and the SEC also doesn't want them.

We have a shot at the B1G, but probably only if Miami doesn't work it out.

I hope the ACC can somehow keep it all together. But it's not looking good.
 

stinger78

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The three questions I have are:
1. Can F$U get out?
2. How many ACC teams can bump an sEcSPN/FOX contract $60M each?
3. If so, why would they not do that while in the ACC?
 

orientalnc

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The three questions I have are:
1. Can F$U get out?
2. How many ACC teams can bump an sEcSPN/FOX contract $60M each?
3. If so, why would they not do that while in the ACC?
I think we will eventually know the answer to #1, but the snarky reply is that they can do whatever they can afford.

I am not sure what you mean by #2 and the answer to #3 is that the ACC has a current contract with ESPN and I do not think renegotiating is a realistic option right now. Back at #2, Notre Dame got a new deal some think is worth $50 million per year. The ACC doesn't have anyone with the TV appeal of ND, so $60 million is a pipe dream.
 

stinger78

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I think we will eventually know the answer to #1, but the snarky reply is that they can do whatever they can afford.

I am not sure what you mean by #2 and the answer to #3 is that the ACC has a current contract with ESPN and I do not think renegotiating is a realistic option right now. Back at #2, Notre Dame got a new deal some think is worth $50 million per year. The ACC doesn't have anyone with the TV appeal of ND, so $60 million is a pipe dream.
Agreed. Then why are we worried that the conference will implode? If no current ACC team is worth $50M, then they won’t bump the SEC/B1G contract enough to make it work for ghat conference.
 

RonJohn

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I think we will eventually know the answer to #1, but the snarky reply is that they can do whatever they can afford.

I am not sure what you mean by #2 and the answer to #3 is that the ACC has a current contract with ESPN and I do not think renegotiating is a realistic option right now. Back at #2, Notre Dame got a new deal some think is worth $50 million per year. The ACC doesn't have anyone with the TV appeal of ND, so $60 million is a pipe dream.
Everyone has accepted the belief that carriage fees don't matter any more, and that ratings are the only thing that affects value. I have seen estimates that the difference for the Big Ten Network for in market vs out of market is $1.40 per subscriber. I'm not sure about any of the numbers, but believe they are within an order of magnitude. There are roughly 80 million pay TV subscribers. That is about 24% of the population. In Florida, that would mean there are about 5 million TV subscribers. That means that adding a team in Florida could add about $7 million per month to carriage fees for the Big Ten Network. Big10 is a 39% stakeholder in the network. I don't think there would be additional costs to the network to increase per subscriber fees for a new in network market, but let's assume only 80% of that increase fee is profit. That would be $2.2 million additional profit for the Big10 per month for adding a school from Florida. ($26 million per year) Actual paying subscribers per area, actual costs and difference between in-market and out of market, splits of that between Fox and Big10, numbers are not easily available. I tried to be conservative, so I think I am at the low end of what the Big10 would make from adding a school in Florida.

That additional revenue wouldn't be tied to the GOR. However, I suspect the TV companies would fight paying the extra fee if a Florida school was in the Big10, but their games were not broadcast as part of the Big10. That doesn't add up to $60 million per year, but it would be in addition to whatever Fox/CBS/NBC were willing to pay for additional members. FSU won't be able to get a full share from the Big10, probably until the current TV contract expires. Also, I think it is worth noting that an additional Florida school joining the SEC would not provide a similar bump in revenue for the SEC Network. Florida is already in-market for the SEC. FSU definitely wouldn't be able to get a full share from the SEC.
 

RonJohn

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The three questions I have are:
1. Can F$U get out?
2. How many ACC teams can bump an sEcSPN/FOX contract $60M each?
3. If so, why would they not do that while in the ACC?
For #1, FSU can definitely get out. It is written in the ACC bylaws. They just have to submit their notice to the ACC by early August, pay the withdrawal fee, and forego their media rights until 2036. However, I assume your question if more about if FSU will get out. That remains to be seen.
 
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