Conference Realignment

[stinger78]

If you compare them to the CBS’s and the NBC’s of the world, ESPN has been like Facebook (a growth stock) while NBC has been like Whirlpool (slow growth and pays dividends—not much innovation).
What’s going on is that ESPN is shifting from a “you can spend money like it’s water” growth phase into a “we’re bringing in the bean counters” mature company phase. They’re in much better shape than CBS and traditional TV, and much more profitable, but there’s not much more greenfield market for them to corner. They’re not going to corner MLB. They have about as much NFL as they’re going to get. They’re not going to take over soccer (and it’s not growing fast enough to matter).
They took over CFB, and there’s not another CFB. They don’t have another huge unaddressed market to consume.
The bean counters at Disney are all over them now.

I hear you, CFB is their cash cow. As there’s not a lot of rapid growth projected in CFB going forward, and as costs inevitably will rise dramatically in CFB, as well as changes, just becoming a maintenance stock will be difficult to sustain. There’s a reason Disney accountants are all over them. Disney has bled them dry to cover the spate of loser movies they’ve produced the last 10 years. sEcSPN is in a bad situation with a CFB business model that is tentative at best.

 

[slugboy]

You leave out the part where the rest of DI$ is hemorrhaging red ink. ESPN has always been the cash cow, but carriage fees are dropping at a time when DI$ badly needs that cash...

If ESPN had another greenfield market, that wouldn’t matter. Disney would let ESPN continue to grow. It’s about growth rates. Disney also bought Pixar and Marvel and LucasFilm at the top—or at least at high valuations. Different kinds of stock are allowed different multiples.

ESPN wasn’t a cash cow—it was a star. It’s turning into a cash cow (which gets used to fund OTHER things): https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/management/boston-consulting-group-bcg-matrix/#

 

[Papa Foxtrot]

ESPN wasn’t a cash cow—it was a star.

Ah, well - call it what you wish. The truth is that ESPN's revenue is declining YoY; mainly due to decreasing carriage fees at a time when DI$ desperately needs the cash. I'm really not disagreeing with you...

Edit - main point is that I'm not sure where F$U thinks the additional money will come from. The PAC12 debacle should have given them a clue.

 

[orientalnc]

According to my sister-in-law, the folks at FSU believe the Florida AG is willing to sue the ACC saying FSU cannot consign state revenue to another entity. Would it work? Probably not. But it would be another thorny issue for the conference and complicate dealing with FSU's exit. She thinks FSU is hoping to force the ACC to negotiate the exit cost down to something similar to what Texas paid.

 

[L41k18]

According to my sister-in-law, the folks at FSU believe the Florida AG is willing to sue the ACC saying FSU cannot consign state revenue to another entity. Would it work? Probably not. But it would be another thorny issue for the conference and complicate dealing with FSU's exit. She thinks FSU is hoping to force the ACC to negotiate the exit cost down to something similar to what Texas paid.

Does she understand the exit fee and GOR $$ are two different things? And the $$ due on the GOR dwarf the exit fee?
Does she understand Texas was only under contract to the Big12 for one more year, and FSU is under contract for 13 more years?

 

[TampaBuzz]

Does she understand the exit fee and GOR $$ are two different things? And the $$ due on the GOR dwarf the exit fee?
Does she understand Texas was only under contract to the Big12 for one more year, and FSU is under contract for 13 more years?

Do you understand this is Florida? Logical thought is not nearly as important as political expediency.

 

[billga99]

The conference will fight that approach since about half of the teams are state schools. It would also open up any state school in any conference to use the same logic. Also since the SEC schools have the same arrangement, would that apply to University of Florida as well?

 

[orientalnc]

Does she understand the exit fee and GOR $$ are two different things? And the $$ due on the GOR dwarf the exit fee?
Does she understand Texas was only under contract to the Big12 for one more year, and FSU is under contract for 13 more years?

She's a FSU alum and is simply repeating what she is hearing from other alums. The Texas exit settlement was the total amount. I think it was one year toward the GOR plus the exit fee. Personally, I doubt the ACC is hesitant to fight this. I don't see how FSU's perceived leverage through the AG (whatever it might be) constrains the ACC in any way.

 

[Papa Foxtrot]

Any lawyers here wish to opine on the strategy of "declaratory judgement action" in this case? I'm not a lawyer, but a cursory web search leads me to believe that it doesn't do what the "legal experts" imply. I'm beginning to think that the real strategy is to wear down the ACC until it will give them what they want....

 

[slugboy]

I was hearing this morning that FSU will test the GOR in court without announcing their exit.

I’m not a lawyer, but suing to be able to get out of a contract but not actually get out of the contract might be difficult to get standing on. Plus, the venue wouldn’t be Florida.

Edit: lol , jinx with PapaFoxtrot, but he cited sources (mine were in the radio at 680).

 

[GoJacketsInRaleigh]

Don't give in to them at all. Don't even negotiate since they have nothing to offer us anyway. Let them spend 500M in exit fees or legal fees if they choose.

 

[L41k18]

She's a FSU alum and is simply repeating what she is hearing from other alums. The Texas exit settlement was the total amount. I think it was one year toward the GOR plus the exit fee. Personally, I doubt the ACC is hesitant to fight this. I don't see how FSU's perceived leverage through the AG (whatever it might be) constrains the ACC in any way.

It will be fun to watch how it plays out.

 

[Papa Foxtrot]

I’m not a lawyer, but suing to be able to get out of a contract but not actually get out of the contract might be difficult to get standing on. Plus, the venue wouldn’t be Florida.

Yeh - I think the strategy of getting a state court judge to give you what you want, quickly followed by an appeal into federal court; which would likely wind up in Atlanta, ain't gonna' work out like they think....

 

[TooTall]

The committee originally said it was the injury to Travis that kept F$U out of the playoff. After bs was called, they fell to the whole $ec dominance in scheduling vs the ACC. If F$U bought that statement, and it appears that have, then maybe they aren't smart enough to be in the ACC anyway.

 

[slugboy]

Another legal “argument”: ESPN violated their agreement with the SEC by interfering with the CFP committee, which is tied in language to the ACC grant of rights.

It’s not a terrible argument: the GOR is tied to ESPN providing fair business value to the ACC and member schools, and ESPN failed to uphold their portion of the contract.

 

[Techster]

Any lawyers here wish to opine on the strategy of "declaratory judgement action" in this case? I'm not a lawyer, but a cursory web search leads me to believe that it doesn't do what the "legal experts" imply. I'm beginning to think that the real strategy is to wear down the ACC until it will give them what they want....

Awesome! FSU doing the generous work of paying the legal fees to break the GOR so GT can go to the B1G early. Thanks, FSU!

Sarcasm of course...kinda

 

[travgt01]

Awesome! FSU doing the generous work of paying the legal fees to break the GOR so GT can go to the B1G early. Thanks, FSU!

Sarcasm of course...kinda

I don’t think it’s sarcasm at all.

 

[bobongo]

Awesome! FSU doing the generous work of paying the legal fees to break the GOR so GT can go to the B1G early. Thanks, FSU!

Sarcasm of course...kinda

...or end up out of the P-5 altogether. Be careful what you wish for. Tech may not be yet ready for a breakup of the ACC.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

They are also getting angry over a system that no longer exists. If the same situation came to pass next year they would be in the CFP win or lose the ACC CG. They seem so blinded by anger and entitlement that they are missing the bigger picture.

This. So much this.

While their exclusion from the CFP is indeed a travesty, it can never happen again.

 

[GoJacketsInRaleigh]

Awesome! FSU doing the generous work of paying the legal fees to break the GOR so GT can go to the B1G early. Thanks, FSU!

Sarcasm of course...kinda

To be honest, if they succeed I hope they take us with them and the B1G/Fox really want a presence in Atlanta.