Conference Realignment

[BurdellJacket]

Why will the ACC fall apart?
Let's look
:
NC State, Duke, NC. and WF all from North Carolina politics of North Carolina would not let them go

UVa and VT again politics, made the ACC take VT so they would stay or would have to be a package deal no conference wants both
.
Pitt, Louisville, BC, Syracuse, no one wants them.

So then that leaves FSU, Georgia Tech, Miami, Clemson
Miami and Georgia Tech are about the same, living in the past. Only difference is Miami past is a little more recent. Fact both have a bad fan base (attendance at home games) both are in good market areas for TV and both are in good recruiting areas. Odds both have to stay maybe a 25% one or both could go.

Clemson could go to the Big 12 but why?

FSU wants to go if they go to the Big10 or the SEC they will be the new Miami and be lucky to finish over 500.

So even if FSU does go look again at the Big 12 their teams are no better than the ACC teams without FSU.

THE ABOVE PLUS: The wrending of clothes and gnashing of teeth about the disintegration of the ACC is pointless.

The idea that any ACC team (including FSU, Clemson, the U, etc. - UNC , don't make me laugh) would leave the ACC at such an extreme cost so they could regularly play Bama, UGA, LSU, Texas, Ohio State, Michagin, or Southern Cal is ludicrous. What would that do to their chances of a playoff position?

Futher, what makes anyone believe that the entities who signed on to the GOR willingly and joyfully just a year ago woud likely win a day in court and prance away unfettered. They are posturing for money in conference.

 

[orientalnc]

NC State, Duke, NC. and WF all from North Carolina politics of North Carolina would not let them go.

Duke and Wake are private schools with less than half their grads have never lived in NC except for their four college years.

Internally none of them want to leave.

 

[Root4GT]

You should. Without the softball team there's no baseball team. Title IX is still the law

Meh, it’s actually total number of scholarships, not sports specific. And frankly I don’t care about college baseball either.

Just me, cheer on the guys and gals in Gold and White.

 

[57jacket]

This thread has really been entertaining ( not kidding) . Some really thoughtful and intelligent posts. Of course a few wierd ones too. LOL

 

[stech81]

This thread has really been entertaining ( not kidding) . Some really thoughtful and intelligent posts. Of course a few wierd ones too. LOL

sorry about the wierd ones but i drink too much

 

[stech81]

FSU and Clemson's best way out is to just outright piss off ESPN and get ESPN to dissolve the conference. For example, if ESPN says FSU vs NC State is going to be a Noon game on ESPN2, just schedule the damn game at 8pm and piss off ESPN. ESPN either decides to modify the contract (money) to keep the ACC on par with the SEC and B1G or can dissolve the conference themselves.

I'm not sure you could do that, I thought ESPN tells the league when to play if they carry the game on TV. ( I may be wrong I have been before)

 

[Jerry the Jacket]

I think what is being lost in all of this is ESPN and Fox have overextended themselves substantially betting on the come with these elaborate TV contracts to the various conferences. With the turmoil and uncertainty involved with the evolution of linear TV to streaming, a lot of the optimistic forecasts of income have been thrown into doubt. That's why you hear the discussion of Disney trying to unload ESPN or find some way to salvage it going forward. I think Fox finds themselves in a similar situation. There is a real possibility that all of this maneuvering and posturing will not realize the perceived financial windfall that many fans anticipate. I think the next several years the way forward is very much in doubt.

If Florida State wants to hand the ACC $125 Million, I say take it and we will take our 1/13th.

Go Jackets!

 

[rfjeff9]

You need to go to YouTube and listen to what the Ohio State President says about the BIG 10 requirement for schools to be an AAU member in order to be a member of the Big 10, she absolutely contradicts what you are saying, think I would listen to her before I would listen to you or Brett McMurphy. Think I'll wait and see about Nebraska. My understanding is the big draw for AAU is the research grant $ that come with membership. Lots of posturing going on now as we watch musical chairs play out. Stanford hinting at going independent, Arizona State being a little difficult at being the 4th 4 corners school to Big 12 I'm hearing, they just became an AAU member along with Miami, ND, S. FL. Then I see where ASU now is joining the Big 12, think I'll wait and get a little more confirmation on that one, also lots of click baiting going on presently I'm guessing.

There is no official requirement for a school to be AAU to join B1G wink wink nod.

If you know what I mean.

 

[rfjeff9]

FWIW, the original ACC Grant of Rights is available online. The only thing that changed in the 2016 update is the end date of the GoR.
It's beauty is in its simplicity. It is only 3 1/2 pages long.

https://wwwcache.wralsportsfan.com/asset/colleges/ncsu/2022/07/05/20361238/ACC-Grant-of-Rights-1-DMID1-5vgd1w2if.pdf

The key part is right at the beginning


"Each of the Member Institutions acknowledges that the grant of Rights during the entire Term is irrevocable and effective until the end of the Term regardless of whether the Member Institution withdraws from the Conference during the Term or otherwise ceases to participate as a member of the Conference,"

Basically this means that if a program choses to leave not only does it lose the money it would receive from the ACC media deal, they also forfeit any media rights money from their new conference.
It's basically a poison pill provision that makes any school that leaves not valuable to a new conference because that conference would not receive any media money from the new addition - it would all go to the ACC, since the ACC holds the media rights for that school.

Also, quite importantly, there is no mechanism within the GoR for a school to exit the GoR. Not like a coaching contract where they have to pay some sort of an exit fee. There is nothing there.
If you want to leave, you are going to have to go to court to try to force a way out. Good luck on that since every school has twice signed off on it willingly.

There is also nothing in it about needing a certain number of schools to vote to end it.

Finally, it has a provision that any new school has to agree to the GoR to join the conference.


Also, I guess the UNC AD had a meeting with the UNC athletic department yesterday where he said they have no plans to leave the conference, just to make it stronger.

Great post, would you mind if I copied it and pasted it on another cfb board? I suppose I could summarize it but it's Saturday and I've done enough work this week already.

 

[bobongo]

I'm not sure you could do that, I thought ESPN tells the league when to play if they carry the game on TV. ( I may be wrong I have been before)

The TV tail's been wagging the dog for thirty years.

 

[RamblinRed]

I think what is being lost in all of this is ESPN and Fox have overextended themselves substantially betting on the come with these elaborate TV contracts to the various conferences. With the turmoil and uncertainty involved with the evolution of linear TV to streaming, a lot of the optimistic forecasts of income have been thrown into doubt. That's why you hear the discussion of Disney trying to unload ESPN or find some way to salvage it going forward. I think Fox finds themselves in a similar situation. There is a real possibility that all of this maneuvering and posturing will not realize the perceived financial windfall that many fans anticipate. I think the next several years the way forward is very much in doubt.

If Florida State wants to hand the ACC $125 Million, I say take it and we will take our 1/13th.

Go Jackets!

I agree with this completely.
I think the days of rapidly increasing media contracts are over.

We have no idea what the college football world will look like toward the end of the decade (When both the B1G and B12 contracts will be up).
But I would not assume there are more big contract upgrades out there. Nothing at this time supports that idea.

In a decade the ACC deal may end up looking smart, or it may end up looking dumb, but right now it is difficult to tell either way.

It is interesting in the CBSSports winners and losers article that they had WA, OR, and Utah all as losers. WA an OR because they did get to join the B1G, but they are getting half of what UCLA and USC got and their travel costs are going to be signficant. Their closest opponents will be the LA schools which are more than 800 miles away. Their closest B1G team is Nebraska, over 1,600 miles away.
Utah was rated a loser because it had run laps around BYU since joining the PAC, but now will be in the same league as BYU, so it will not have the same advantages it had over its in-state rival.

AZ was the only school that was rated a pure winner due to it moving to the best college basketball conference in the country.

 

[RamblinRed]

Great post, would you mind if I copied it and pasted it on another cfb board? I suppose I could summarize it but it's Saturday and I've done enough work this week already.

go ahead.

 

[cpf2001]

Yeah ever since the Bally and especially PAC 12 developments I’ve rapidly gone from worried that the ACC was in a suicide pact where everyone else would be making 100M more by 2036 to thinking that the ACC is in a pretty solid position with the long term contract to wait out the storm. If the obnoxious folks in FL who are bad at math will settle down, at least.

I don’t think ESPN is gonna fully go the way of Bally, but I also don’t think Fox/CBS/anyone else can afford to keep spending more and more if even the ESPN juggernaut is feeling the pain now.

 

[iceeater1969]

The TV tail's been wagging the dog for thirty years.

I think we are all saying
The tail grew so much larger than the dog so that now what exists is really a big tail with a small dog attached that is made up of same number of schools attached.

Now the giant tail is financially over extended. They will not accept this. They will cut the weak schools - weak meaning teams that arent fun to watch or are in weak market.

Fortunately, Gt Prez has made many changes.

Rivals is estimating we will be in top 30 recruiting in 23. Our current recruits are giving a positive vote to our school and the new coaches inspite of bad fans and clown car recent coaching.

This show that Gt has very good potential. Now, will the Gt alums show up so games are fun to watch.

When this starts, In Angel w trust.

 

[SOWEGA Jacket]

What I think we all can agree on is that all of this movement from 5 years ago to over the next 5 years will lead to 1) a hugely expanded playoff system, and 2) the increasing chance that some conferences will break away from the NCAA in football and form their own entity.

I welcome either scenario because as a fan all I want is to watch meaningful games and have my team have a chance to prove themselves on the field during those special years when we have a highly competitive team. While we all really enjoyed the 2014 season I think we all had that same feeling after the Orange Bowl that if only we could play more games and show even more.

These super conferences aren’t going to settle for a limited playoff because they’ll want to show case they’re top 6-8 teams and make money off them. And at some point they’ll realize they can hoard the money by creating their own playoff. Either way I’m fine because if my beloved GT gets in with the big boys then once every 20 years we’ll shock the world and if we stay down in the academic league we’ll be in the playoff mix often with similarly academically minded teams. I know many fans of D2 teams and they have great football seasons rooting for their teams and getting playoff bids.

 

[AlabamaBuzz]

Not sure what to think. I know looking back and wishing things were like they used to be is futile, but it is hard sometimes to not be sad over what CF has become.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

I agree with the posts that CFB revenue has been a bubble and is deflating. ESPN is cooked and the SEC probably wont see the back end of their contract, nor will we to ~2036.

I do Sling ($40/month) for about 2-3 months a year for CFB and 2-3 months for college baseball (all depending on how GT is doing). And from info I got at GT Swarm I also use a "free" site stream east sometimes for the NFL or other major sports (best with a VPN) (linked removed for dmca)

Just finished subscribing to Peacock for two months to watch the Tour de France and Tour de Swiss. Total of $14.

My point is that there is so much content out there I already have more than I'll ever watch on Amazon Prime & Netflix (free with T Mobile @ $30 for cell phone plan). Plus if you are willing to roll with it, it has gotten ridiculously cheap. Now I know I'm more frugal than most, but the business models are linear inflation as many have said in a non-linear world.

Thanks to those who have posted so many facts; this is a really good thread.

 

[Techwood Relict]

In ten years, maybe less, there will be no ESPN. There will be Saturday Ticket which you can buy and stream on any device you want for $150 a year

I'll take less for $150 Alex.

 

[Techwood Relict]

more likely moved to Federal Court because of the interstate commerce

Fellow GT lawyer agrees

 

[stinger 1957]

If in fact we are heading to a National CFB Conference and it does actually happen which I'm inclined to believe it will, are we missing something in the stature and place CFB will then have in our society? For instance looking at our own GT, does it become Atlanta's college team representing Atlanta against Seattle, Ohio, MI etc? Not sure I'm saying this well but I see it could become something greater than just one college against another. More along what we see with NFL teams. It is just a thought that has occurred to me. It makes me look at conference realignment in a little different light, little different flavor to it. I thought CBK's comments the other day in his speech to ?? Touchdown club or something, "Atlanta is going to be proud of GT" were interesting. I honestly think CFB will take on a new stature and place in American society after this all shakes out.