Conference Realignment

[RamblinRed]

My gut reaction is that Nebraska would be full on stupid to leave for the B12. Then there is a side of me that would absolutely love to see a school make a decision based on geography, tradition, commonality with other members, etc. At a time when everyone is seeing ONLY $$$$, it might be a refreshing first step toward common sense.
Cynic in me says I don’t think Nebraska will get there willingly. No idea of the BIG would force their hand though

We have the new conference lineups for 2024 season and NE is not going anywhere (and never will)
B1G is at 18 teams with the additions of WA and OR.
B12 is at 16 teams with the additions of CO, AZ, ASU, and Utah
All of these have been publicly announced.
SEC Will be at 16 teams with TX and OK.
ACC has 14 teams (sort of 14 1/2 with ND).

 

[CEB]

There is also nothing in it about needing a certain number of schools to vote to end it.

Point of clarification... the agreement says it can’t be changed unless agrees in writing by the Conference and each member institution. 16 signatures change it. I think the point you were making is that no alliance of schools, short of being unanimous, can change it.

 

[cpf2001]

FSU saw UGA have success recently and so decided that the lesson to take from that is “bark more” I guess.

CBS is trying to make Paramount streaming work, NBC is trying to make Peacock work, Fox has FX and Hulu (kinda).

Nitpick: FX and Hulu are with Disney (though Comcast (who owns NBC) still has a non-controlling stake for now). Those came as part of the Disney/Fox deal, while broadcast Fox and FS1 stayed with Fox and the FSNs went to Bally.

Logical, I know.

I confess I don’t keep up with this in any in-depth way because it gives me a headache to have to do work on something that used to be just recreation.

But I’m a little confused. I don’t use cable, use FireStick and utube tv. I get lots of channels I don’t want, so bundling still seems to be a thing. Hulu also bundles (90 or so channels) and carries ESPN, ACC etc.

Forgive me if I’m not paying careful enough attention to your argument but ESPN seems to be bundled with lots of streaming services and those services don’t seem to be going away.

I get that ESPN is having financial difficulty.

The streaming services are caught in a bit of a corner:

* because when they launched in the early 2010s everyone already had cable, nobody wanted to price themselves higher than ten bucks a month or so. Or, later, ~40 when they started adding live TV

* but that left them with less than content distributors were getting for their most valuable stuff on cable, and in line for a bunch of backlash if they started charging enough to keep the old amount of revenue for ESPN and such

that’s why stuff like Hulu Live TV and YouTube TV have gone from like $40 to $70-90+ - they were priced at a big loss initially to get PR and initial users

But the combined total of people who have traditional ESPN (or FSN/Bally, or FS1, or whatever NBC/Comcast sports) is tanking FAST. And it seems like the runway of “just charge the cable companies more for our sports channels is running out” so deals have started going way down for the last couple of renewals with the Big 12 and PAC 12.

YouTube TV and Hulu TV have somewhere around 10M subscribers total, it looks like. But total cable/satellite/streaming cable has gone way down to like 76M, losing 2.3M users just in q1 of this year, and like 7% year over year. https://variety.com/2023/tv/news/cord-cutting-all-time-high-q1-2023-pay-tv-losses-1235610939/ as a percentage of households, the 58% who have some kind of cable is the lowest percentage since 1992.

So eventually they can probably find sources of money again through streaming, but it’s gonna be a rough transition - the person who has cable today but only watches news or detective shows is gonna be looking at streaming services without sports, even though today they’re also indirectly paying ESPN a bunch every month.

 

[GoJacketsInRaleigh]

FSU and Clemson's best way out is to just outright piss off ESPN and get ESPN to dissolve the conference. For example, if ESPN says FSU vs NC State is going to be a Noon game on ESPN2, just schedule the damn game at 8pm and piss off ESPN. ESPN either decides to modify the contract (money) to keep the ACC on par with the SEC and B1G or can dissolve the conference themselves.

The end game here is two conferences. Then they will split into various divisions and what not. It's just a matter of when the bottom feeders (Vanderbilt, Rutgers, Missouri for example) get kicked out of these conferences. We will eventually end up with roughly 30-40 top tier teams, and another 30-40 in a secondary tier. The top tier won't survive because the most of the viewers will be their fans only. People like me won't give a **** about them. I'll just watch the NFL if I want to watch a professional 32 team league, which is much better football. That secondary tier, which I assume GT would land in, would get back to be real college football where money still matters but much less so. Bring it on ASAP. We aren't ever competing with UGA, Clemson, Alabama, etc.... financially, recruiting, or anywhere else on the football field on a consistent basis. It is what it is.

The NCAA may as well let the TV networks determine the conferences and just get it over with.

I won't be surprised if within the next 3-5 years the politicians are involved and dictating where publicly funded universities play and try to level the playing field too. I'll leave my thoughts on that with just that statement so I don't get political.

 

[Southern psu fan]

This is really making me not care much for college football anymore. GC bout sucked the love out of it for me but Key gave me a glimmer of hope. Can you imagine being an Oregon State or Washington State fan right now? I could see Stanford being independent. No way in hell you should have teams on the west coast being apart of the big ten! No more Rose bowl! ACC should've added West Virginia when they had a chance and recently jumped on UCF and Cincinnati. Techs only shot at an invite is the Atlanta market

Brent Key is going to make you happy again!!!

 

[bobongo]

This is really making me not care much for college football anymore. GC bout sucked the love out of it for me but Key gave me a glimmer of hope. Can you imagine being a Oregon State or Washington State fan right now? I could see Stanford being independent. No way in hell you should have teams on the west coast being apart of the big ten! No more Rose bowl! ACC should've added West Virginia when they had a chance and recently jumped on UCF and Cincinnati. Techs only shot at an invite is the Atlanta market

There's a restive imp in the back of my mind that is beginning to long for the days of Independence.
If it comes to it, I would rather follow that track than be demoted to a G-5 conference.

 

[GoJacketsInRaleigh]

The other solution is Notre Dame decides what happens to the ACC. It will never happen but if Notre Dame could get the ACC a contract in the B1G/SEC range and then convince Penn State to come with them that easily saves the ACC. If we have to kick out teams to make that happen then so be it. And TV would pay for a conference with ND, Penn State, Clemson, FSU, Miami, UNC, etc...

I realize Penn State probably wouldn't even take the phone call at this point unless ND and TV came to them with some real money and contracts. But those are the only two schools that can save the ACC over the next 5-10 years.

 

[Southern psu fan]

The other solution is Notre Dame decides what happens to the ACC. It will never happen but if Notre Dame could get the ACC a contract in the B1G/SEC range and then convince Penn State to come with them that easily saves the ACC. If we have to kick out teams to make that happen then so be it. And TV would pay for a conference with ND, Penn State, Clemson, FSU, Miami, UNC, etc...

I realize Penn State probably wouldn't even take the phone call at this point unless ND and TV came to them with some real money and contracts. But those are the only two schools that can save the ACC over the next 5-10 years.

I would love for Penn State to jump ship to the ACC that would probably bring Rutgers and Maryland to the ACC. Penn State could also get the rivalry back with Pitt. ND and Penn St also have rivalry history. I love the sound of it anyway lol

 

[stinger 1957]

Big 10 PREFERS AAU but it is not required. If a school is moving in the right direction academically (research is big one), the Big 10 would look favorably upon them. Nebraska lost their AAU and they are not going any where. They will tell you that the Big 10 has really improved them. Fans (some) might want the Big 12, but academicians want the Big 10 because of the stability it offers and rubbing shoulders with the various members of the Big 10. The academic collaboration is real and a benefit to all (Big 10 Cancer Consortium).

I can see FSU, Clemson not so much (but who knows). If either was offered, and if they were SMART, they would jump on it for the academic side for what the Big 10 can do for you as an institution. Ohio State generates about $200 million in sports revenue, research generates between $1.2 to $1.5 Billion (GT does quite well in research).

MSN

According to Action Network's Brett McMurphy, American Association of Universities (AAU) accreditation is "not a requirement" to join the Big Ten. While it's preferred, a source said academic achievement can be determined in a "variety of ways."

You need to go to YouTube and listen to what the Ohio State President says about the BIG 10 requirement for schools to be an AAU member in order to be a member of the Big 10, she absolutely contradicts what you are saying, think I would listen to her before I would listen to you or Brett McMurphy. Think I'll wait and see about Nebraska. My understanding is the big draw for AAU is the research grant $ that come with membership. Lots of posturing going on now as we watch musical chairs play out. Stanford hinting at going independent, Arizona State being a little difficult at being the 4th 4 corners school to Big 12 I'm hearing, they just became an AAU member along with Miami, ND, S. FL. Then I see where ASU now is joining the Big 12, think I'll wait and get a little more confirmation on that one, also lots of click baiting going on presently I'm guessing.

 

[forensicbuzz]

I've been reading along, and thinking that a conference has longevity just because of one media rights deal is hubris, especially when many of the schools are already looking for a way out. If you can't see the direction the sport is going towards (money grabbing), I don't know what to tell you bud. There are only ~2-5 really value revenue producing schools in the ACC for athletics (FSU, Clemson, maybe UNC, Miami, Duke in basketball). That is not a recipe for longevity.

How many in the B1G? Rutgers? Northwestern? Illinois? Maryland? Purdue? Not all schools have to be top revenue producing schools.

What does the B12 have?

Not really a sustainable argument.

 

[stinger 1957]

My gut reaction is that Nebraska would be full on stupid to leave for the B12. Then there is a side of me that would absolutely love to see a school make a decision based on geography, tradition, commonality with other members, etc. At a time when everyone is seeing ONLY $$$$, it might be a refreshing first step toward common sense.
Cynic in me says I don’t think Nebraska will get there willingly. No idea of the BIG would force their hand though

Agree with you about the full on stupid part, but because of losing their AAU status they may not have a choice in the matter. Time will tell. Somewhere back seems like I read that they were given some time to make whatever change would be needed in order to gain membership again, but so far it appears that has not been done.
For a few years now I've been hearing various people mention we're headed to a National CFB league nationwide and I could see the BIG actually ending up becoming that entity as it expands across the country. Seems they want to mirror the NFL with CFB. At the same time there could be a drastic reduction in higher education institutions happening in the USA, I've read several articles about just such a reduction forthcoming.

 

[forensicbuzz]

Whats your take on this?

The problem is that the ACC HQ is in NC and the other members (or their then Miami) are in states other than Florida. If suit is files by anyone other than FSU, it would either be in North Carolina or more likely moved to Federal Court because of the interstate commerce. The Florida courts would lose jurisdiction and the Florida statutes created to protect FSU would be moot.

I guess they have the Portal and their 1 free transfer.

 

[cpf2001]

Honestly since none of the other sports bring in money the same way football does for even regular-season games, it'd probably be a good time to split football conferences out from all-other-sport conferences.

 

[Jacket4Life]

I know it’s not popular opinion by most, but honestly I think if the ACC starts to fall apart the SEC would grab GT and Clemson. I know they do not want the Big 10 setting up shop in Atlanta.

 

[Vespidae]

I know it’s not popular opinion by most, but honestly I think if the ACC starts to fall apart the SEC would grab GT and Clemson. I know they do not want the Big 10 setting up shop in Atlanta.

The SEC has no interest in Tech. Nor Clemson. The SEC prefers to expand its footprint and develop its existing coverage.

 

[slugboy]

I've been reading along, and thinking that a conference has longevity just because of one media rights deal is hubris, especially when many of the schools are already looking for a way out. If you can't see the direction the sport is going towards (money grabbing), I don't know what to tell you bud. There are only ~2-5 really value revenue producing schools in the ACC for athletics (FSU, Clemson, maybe UNC, Miami, Duke in basketball). That is not a recipe for longevity.

It’s not easy to get a clear picture on revenue for each school. Accounting varies a lot. WRAL did one of the better write ups recently at https://www.wral.com/story/the-acc-s-future-is-uncertain-the-money-tells-you-why/20413637/.

There are some solid charts and graphs in that article. Looking at what they wrote before, you could see the P12 crash coming up in the graphs.

There are some other numbers out there too. Depending on where you look, you might see Clemson at the top, or maybe FSU, or maybe someone else. Louisville might be one of the top schools, or more in the middle. Overall, the ACC seems to be third in per-school revenue—not just from media rights, but also from donations and ticket sales.

GT is down towards the bottom of the conference in revenue lately, but the last two years were two bad basketball seasons for Pastner, and we’re all aware of recent football history—that will affect attendance and donations and product sales.

If you do look at revenue numbers reported to the Department of Education, Pitt, Syracuse, Louisville, and other schools do a lot better than the typical Big 12 school. The Big 12 just gained several southwestern schools, but they lost Texas and Oklahoma—they came out way behind in that trade.

Again, if I’m looking at NUMBERS, I’m looking at what’s happening to TV, Cable, and Streaming—and they have a painful financial trajectory. That’s fundamental for everyone, including the SEC.

If I’m looking at qualitative factors, the last decade or more of inaction from the NCAA is what bothers me. I get no indication that there is thoughtful planning or leadership there—which is bad news for all of college sports. College sports is facing disruption and turbulence, and the pilots seem to be asleep and unprepared.

This conversation has been going on in this board for years, and you’re jumping in late. There are facts that have been discussed that you probably haven’t seen.

 

[stinger 1957]

There is no plan. It’s the college football equivalent of the Five Families fighting for control of turf before the Commission.

Pro sports have league commissioners, media experts etc who help organize the sport for the benefit of all. CFB doesn’t. It’s literally the Wild West and survival of the fittest.

I think there is a plan, there is just not an announced formal plan. Think the end result will be a CFB National conference covering the entire USA and probably the BIG will be the survivor National CFB conference. This whole movement IMO is being driven by the media, they have the "bucks" that are driving it all. Think there used to be opposition and there may still be some, but many are beginning to see the inevitable now IMO. Hopefully the ACC school leaders see it and can behind the scenes work it all out so we don't have to go through as much agony as say the PAC 12 schools are experiencing. Seems to me we can benefit from their pain if we just will do so.

 

[stech81]

I know it’s not popular opinion by most, but honestly I think if the ACC starts to fall apart the SEC would grab GT and Clemson. I know they do not want the Big 10 setting up shop in Atlanta.

Why will the ACC fall apart?
Let's look
:
NC State, Duke, NC. and WF all from North Carolina politics of North Carolina would not let them go

UVa and VT again politics, made the ACC take VT so they would stay or would have to be a package deal no conference wants both
.
Pitt, Louisville, BC, Syracuse, no one wants them.

So then that leaves FSU, Georgia Tech, Miami, Clemson
Miami and Georgia Tech are about the same, living in the past. Only difference is Miami past is a little more recent. Fact both have a bad fan base (attendance at home games) both are in good market areas for TV and both are in good recruiting areas. Odds both have to stay maybe a 25% one or both could go.

Clemson could go to the Big 12 but why?

FSU wants to go if they go to the Big10 or the SEC they will be the new Miami and be lucky to finish over 500.

So even if FSU does go look again at the Big 12 their teams are no better than the ACC teams without FSU.

 

[GoJacketsInRaleigh]

Why will the ACC fall apart?
Let's look
:
NC State, Duke, NC. and WF all from North Carolina politics of North Carolina would not let them go

UVa and VT again politics, made the ACC take VT so they would stay or would have to be a package deal no conference wants both
.
Pitt, Louisville, BC, Syracuse, no one wants them.

So then that leaves FSU, Georgia Tech, Miami, Clemson
Miami and Georgia Tech are about the same, living in the past. Only difference is Miami past is a little more recent. Fact both have a bad fan base (attendance at home games) both are in good market areas for TV and both are in good recruiting areas. Odds both have to stay maybe a 25% one or both could go.

Clemson could go to the Big 12 but why?

FSU wants to go if they go to the Big10 or the SEC they will be the new Miami and be lucky to finish over 500.

So even if FSU does go look again at the Big 12 their teams are no better than the ACC teams without FSU.

Wishful thinking.

 

[orientalnc]

No one cares about softball players. LOL

You should. Without the softball team there's no baseball team. Title IX is still the law