Conference Realignment

[Vespidae]

With all due respect, this is not what I've heard from B1G people in the know and other highly placed administrators.

I haven’t really talked to anyone in a decision making or influencing capacity so I’ll defer to you. On the surface, I don’t see Tech being accretive to the B1G. Perhaps your insight is better.

 

[Vespidae]

Vespidae, it's not just about GT by a long shot, if that were the case I doubt if the Big 10 would be interested in GT, not sure you are seeing that based on your comments I read.

You’re right. I don’t see any advantage for the B1G to pursue Tech unless there is a ton of soft value. I’ve seen no analyses … just opinions. And that’s fine. It’s a discussion board. If someone has quantified the soft value or has specific comments from decision makers, then that would change my view.

 

[Vespidae]

Money in the Big10 is better. Since you are in academics, would being in the Big10 Academic Alliance be good for academics and for research? It seems to me that the Big10 is the only conference that actually puts all of the athletics, research, and academics pieces together.

I don't disagree that GT doesn't fill all of the boxes to be attractive to the Big10. However, using average viewership isn't necessarily a good measuring stick. Any team on a regional network at 12:30PM is going to have low viewership. The reasons that GT is on Bally Sports at 12:30 are concerning, not the results of being there.

Wanting to be in a club is one thing. The club wanting you as a member is another.

 

[RonJohn]

Wanting to be in a club is one thing. The club wanting you as a member is another.

Do you have any insight about whether the Big10 Academic Alliance is just smoke and mirrors, or if it actually makes a difference to academics and research?

 

[Vespidae]

Do you have any insight about whether the Big10 Academic Alliance is just smoke and mirrors, or if it actually makes a difference to academics and research?

I have no idea.

538 did an analysis of 38 schools as to where the B1G should expand to next and they included non sports criteria.

These were decided into 5 tiers. Tech was in Tier 4. Described as a longshot, but interesting strategic fit. But Tier 4 nonetheless.

From my perch, no one cares about conference affiliation. We cooperate with the best programs in a specific field. Colleagues in a different department work with completely different universities.

We do use the SEC to benchmark ourselves, especially things like compensation, published papers, etc.

Does this answer your question?

 

[yeti92]

With all due respect, I disagree. This feels to me like an echo chamber … telling Tech fans what they want to hear.

Tech is not attractive to the B1G. Average GT viewership is 615K .. half of Louisville and even less than half compared to Miami. OSU averages 5M viewers a week … so Tech at 615K is massively dilutive.

Tech does not have the interest or resources to compete at the national level. I’m not being negative, just realistic. Would changing conferences change the culture? No. We are basically a Vandy or service academy type school.

I would be willing to bet the B1G has expectations as to the size and reach of the athletic budget and we would be a very weak addition. I doubt we could match expectations.

I can detail all the numbers but fixing the ACC is probably our best bet. Jumping from having no influence in the ACC to no influence in the B1G seems like a lateral move.

This remains speculation. I’m convinced when J Batt announces it but I’m not holding my breath.

What's your source for the viewership numbers? According to

Ohio State was highest in the country at 5.8m/game during the regular season for 2022, which is an awfully high bar to have to clear to gain membership in the conference.

Tech comes in at #49 w/ 837k, within 50k viewers of:

43. NC State (881k)
46. UNC (849k)
44. Purdue (870k)
48. Syracuse (841k)

Ahead of:
50. Missouri (793k)
56. Pittsburgh (650k)
58. Rutgers (618k)
59. Miami (608k)
60. Wake Forest (523k)
63. Louisville (596k)
76. Virginia Tech (264k)
79. Virginia (239k)
91. Duke (115.7k)

 

[CEB]

You’re right. I don’t see any advantage for the B1G to pursue Tech unless there is a ton of soft value. I’ve seen no analyses … just opinions. And that’s fine. It’s a discussion board. If someone has quantified the soft value or has specific comments from decision makers, then that would change my view.

To be fair, this could be said about virtually everyone and everything surrounding expansion / realignment.

If there are informed opinion or analysis out there, they’ve been drowned out.

 

[forensicbuzz]

I haven’t really talked to anyone in a decision making or influencing capacity so I’ll defer to you. On the surface, I don’t see Tech being accretive to the B1G. Perhaps your insight is better.

I have no insight other than living in an affluent area of Chicago where MANY movers and shakers live, specifically B1G-related bigshots. Our kids go to school together, so conversations are had from time to time. There is still B1G interest in being in the ATL market. Currently, that only happens 1 way.

 

[slugboy]

What's your source for the viewership numbers? According to

Ohio State was highest in the country at 5.8m/game during the regular season for 2022, which is an awfully high bar to have to clear to gain membership in the conference.

Tech comes in at #49 w/ 837k, within 50k viewers of:

43. NC State (881k)
46. UNC (849k)
44. Purdue (870k)
48. Syracuse (841k)

Ahead of:
50. Missouri (793k)
56. Pittsburgh (650k)
58. Rutgers (618k)
59. Miami (608k)
60. Wake Forest (523k)
63. Louisville (596k)
76. Virginia Tech (264k)
79. Virginia (239k)
91. Duke (115.7k)

I would like to see the data, but promising numbers, especially considering the previous two seasons

 

[Vespidae]

What's your source for the viewership numbers? According to

Ohio State was highest in the country at 5.8m/game during the regular season for 2022, which is an awfully high bar to have to clear to gain membership in the conference.

Tech comes in at #49 w/ 837k, within 50k viewers of:

43. NC State (881k)
46. UNC (849k)
44. Purdue (870k)
48. Syracuse (841k)

Ahead of:
50. Missouri (793k)
56. Pittsburgh (650k)
58. Rutgers (618k)
59. Miami (608k)
60. Wake Forest (523k)
63. Louisville (596k)
76. Virginia Tech (264k)
79. Virginia (239k)
91. Duke (115.7k)

What's your source for the viewership numbers? According to

Ohio State was highest in the country at 5.8m/game during the regular season for 2022, which is an awfully high bar to have to clear to gain membership in the conference.

Tech comes in at #49 w/ 837k, within 50k viewers of:

43. NC State (881k)
46. UNC (849k)
44. Purdue (870k)
48. Syracuse (841k)

Ahead of:
50. Missouri (793k)
56. Pittsburgh (650k)
58. Rutgers (618k)
59. Miami (608k)
60. Wake Forest (523k)
63. Louisville (596k)
76. Virginia Tech (264k)
79. Virginia (239k)
91. Duke (115.7k)

Zac Miller reported it and is a 5 year average.

 

[TooTall]

I wouldnt be a member of any club that would want me as a member.

Is that a Gracho or GT Admin quote?

 

[stinger 1957]

You’re right. I don’t see any advantage for the B1G to pursue Tech unless there is a ton of soft value. I’ve seen no analyses … just opinions. And that’s fine. It’s a discussion board. If someone has quantified the soft value or has specific comments from decision makers, then that would change my view.

It is really pretty simple as I've seen it talked about by Big school officials, they are interested in your media mkt and they want to be the national CFB conference if you look at where they want to go etc. They are really following the NFL model. You might want to dig out the Ohio State Pres and AD talking on YouTube about it all and there have been others, just cannot remember who and where I saw it. Some have been talk show heads quoting people from Big 10. With what I have seen, using some logic built around what has been given to us, gun to my head I'm betting GT ends up in the Big 10. No timeline.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

We go round and round on this and keep covering the same ground. So, to repeat, what would the B1G get out of having Tech in the conference? 3 things: Academic collaboration with a top notch research institute. Access to a large media market. Deeper recruiting inroads in the fourth best state in the country for high school talent.

Is that enough to seal the deal? That would depend on other factors that have nothing to do with Tech or the aforementioned reasons. The numbers have to make economic sense on paper regardless of any other pro or con reasons. As has oft been stated, it’s a business decision.

 

[Richard7125]

We go round and round on this and keep covering the same ground. So, to repeat, what would the B1G get out of having Tech in the conference? 3 things: Academic collaboration with a top notch research institute. Access to a large media market. Deeper recruiting inroads in the fourth best state in the country for high school talent.

Is that enough to seal the deal? That would depend on other factors that have nothing to do with Tech or the aforementioned reasons. The numbers have to make economic sense on paper regardless of any other pro or con reasons. As has oft been stated, it’s a business decision.

Conference expansion is almost 100% tied to Media Revenue generated by football. If it doesn’t increase the payout per school, expansion is not going to happen.

Conferences aren’t expanding to be part of a world class research group. Big media markets are still important, but not nearly as much as they used to be with people having much more choice on how they consume sports via streaming services and cutting the cord. Having Tech in the Big10 will have very little impact on recruiting for OSU, Michigan, Mich State, Penn State, etc relative to NIL dollars and winning football.

 

[Vespidae]

We go round and round on this and keep covering the same ground. So, to repeat, what would the B1G get out of having Tech in the conference? 3 things: Academic collaboration with a top notch research institute. Access to a large media market. Deeper recruiting inroads in the fourth best state in the country for high school talent.

Is that enough to seal the deal? That would depend on other factors that have nothing to do with Tech or the aforementioned reasons. The numbers have to make economic sense on paper regardless of any other pro or con reasons. As has oft been stated, it’s a business decision.

All those are valid points. But, there 20 other schools that are an even better fit for the B1G.

But here’s a fun fact. Maryland is 45-60 in football since joining. Does anyone even care how Rutgers is doing?

I think we are kidding ourselves that Tech is the number one target for B1G expansion. The ONLY even remotely based comparison was done by 538. I encourage you to read it.

I‘m indifferent to whether Tech remains in the ACC or eventually jumps. I trust J Batt to do the right thing. But a lot of the speculation reminds me of the Deion is coming to Tech threads. It was never going to happen and didn’t.

Color me a realist.

No need to respond. It’s all speculative and I don’t have anything more to add.

 

[Richard7125]

Something I’ve wondered. If the ACC media contract was up today, what kind of media deal would they get? The ACC recently distributed roughly $40m/school. The new Big12 contract (sans Texas and Oklahoma) starting in 2025 is roughly $32m/school ($2.3B/6 years/12 schools). The new Pac12 contract (sans USC and UCLA) is expected to be around $30m/school. Would the ACC get a simple “step-up” in annual revenue or would it be a significant increase?

 

[GoJacketsInRaleigh]

Conference expansion is almost 100% tied to Media Revenue generated by football. If it doesn’t increase the payout per school, expansion is not going to happen.

Conferences aren’t expanding to be part of a world class research group. Big media markets are still important, but not nearly as much as they used to be with people having much more choice on how they consume sports via streaming services and cutting the cord. Having Tech in the Big10 will have very little impact on recruiting for OSU, Michigan, Mich State, Penn State, etc relative to NIL dollars and winning football.

Everyone doesn't pay the same amount for each channel. The Big Ten Network charges a lot more in markets where they have teams. There are a lot of people in the ATL so they could make a lot more money off their own Network by adding us to their conference.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

Conference expansion is almost 100% tied to Media Revenue generated by football. If it doesn’t increase the payout per school, expansion is not going to happen.

Conferences aren’t expanding to be part of a world class research group. Big media markets are still important, but not nearly as much as they used to be with people having much more choice on how they consume sports via streaming services and cutting the cord. Having Tech in the Big10 will have very little impact on recruiting for OSU, Michigan, Mich State, Penn State, etc relative to NIL dollars and winning football.

The caveat is something I think we can agree on, which I’ve oft repeated. If the numbers work, we’re in. If the numbers don’t work, we’re not in.

Maryland and Rutgers were not, in my opinion, the B1G’s first choice for expansion. But the numbers, at that time, suggested that expansion was good for them, even if Tech and Virginia were their first choice and they had to “settle” for an alternative. We can speculate all day about why they would or would not come back around to us. NIL and “winning seasons” will have less to do with it, in my opinion, than the larger macroeconomics of various conferences expanding.

One last time, it’s a business and the B1G will do what the numbers indicate.

 

[orientalnc]

My take on this is very similar to Finebaum's:

Clemson and FSU are essentially nothing to the SEC in terms of media dollars. Furthermore, both schools would greatly decrease their chances of ever making the CFP. Can you imagine having to battle with Texas, OU, Bama, and uga every year?

Miami might be a much better bet for the SEC. I do not think they are a good candidate for the B1G due to the AAU requirement the B1G presidents seem to hold dear.

An earlier version of this story said UVA, VT, and NCSU would bee good candidates for the B1G. I think he is smoking something I used to grow illegally if he thinks the B1G is interested in NC State or VT. UNC, probably. But once they have the Tarheels they don't need the Pack. UVA, is certainly high on the B1G wish list.

https://www.si.com/fannation/college/cfb-hq/ncaa-football/college-football-expansion-realignment-paul-finebaum-acc-sec-rumors

 

[Northeast Stinger]

My take on this is very similar to Finebaum's:

Clemson and FSU are essentially nothing to the SEC in terms of media dollars. Furthermore, both schools would greatly decrease their chances of ever making the CFP. Can you imagine having to battle with Texas, OU, Bama, and uga every year?

Miami might be a much better bet for the SEC. I do not think they are a good candidate for the B1G due to the AAU requirement the B1G presidents seem to hold dear.

An earlier version of this story said UVA, VT, and NCSU would bee good candidates for the B1G. I think he is smoking something I used to grow illegally if he thinks the B1G is interested in NC State or VT. UNC, probably. But once they have the Tarheels they don't need the Pack. UVA, is certainly high on the B1G wish list.

https://www.si.com/fannation/college/cfb-hq/ncaa-football/college-football-expansion-realignment-paul-finebaum-acc-sec-rumors

So now you grow it legally?