Conference Realignment

[apatriot1776]

Very interesting choice of words at the end of your sentence. I believe two things a) Tech will not be extinct but will fall to the category of the UConns and USF's of the world and b) we will beat FSU in Ireland. Barring injuries I suspect I will have a fairly good size bet on GT on the money line. This will be the surprise win of our season that will excite the fanbase, elevate the expectations and then, ultimately, burst everyone's bubble as the Jackets end up at 6-6 or 7-5. Either way it will be more than 5.5 wins and the season total will be surpassed.

Given we've already derailed this thread about stadium expansions I'm going to give my 2 cents. The SEC and B1G are going to be done with expanding after Clemson/Florida St leave the ACC. The ACC will add teams (ideally Oregon St, Wazzu, SDSU, and USF - contingent on an on-campus stadium) and continue to exist roughly on par with the B12.

My reasoning being that there are very much diminishing returns for member schools after adding Clemson/FSU and the SEC/B1G are already running into scheduling chaos and difficult SOS affecting playoff chances. To join the SEC and be a net positive for the existing schools they would need to bring at least $58m of TV value to the deal. ACC programs just aren't valuable enough fanbases to go after. The B12 is going to run into a similar problem - realistically adding ACC teams is a sideways move financially and a negative move logistically. It’s not worth it for them to be a $900m conference with 30 teams vs a $600m conference with 20 teams. So we'll end up in a rump ACC "conference of misfit toys" but it's fine to me as long as 1) ACC leadership gets replaced, 2) we keep a decent recruiting base and 3) we have a realistic path to a championship a la TCU.

The main thing is the ACC needs to jump on it much like the B12 jumped on the opportunity to add UCF, BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, UA, ASU, CU, and Utah. The three we got are a start but aren't big enough to move the needle. ACC leadership especially needs to jump on Oregon St and Wazzu now before it's too late. Aside from Navy they are the only non-P4 teams in the top 50 most watched teams (OSU #20, Wazzu #43, GT is #52)

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

Given we've already derailed this thread about stadium expansions I'm going to give my 2 cents. The SEC and B1G are going to be done with expanding after Clemson/Florida St leave the ACC. The ACC will add teams (ideally Oregon St, Wazzu, SDSU, and USF - contingent on an on-campus stadium) and continue to exist roughly on par with the B12.

My reasoning being that there are very much diminishing returns for member schools after adding Clemson/FSU and the SEC/B1G are already running into scheduling chaos and difficult SOS affecting playoff chances. To join the SEC and be a net positive for the existing schools they would need to bring at least $58m of TV value to the deal. ACC programs just aren't valuable enough fanbases to go after. The B12 is going to run into a similar problem - realistically adding ACC teams is a sideways move financially and a negative move logistically. It’s not worth it for them to be a $900m conference with 30 teams vs a $600m conference with 20 teams. So we'll end up in a rump ACC "conference of misfit toys" but it's fine to me as long as 1) ACC leadership gets replaced, 2) we keep a decent recruiting base and 3) we have a realistic path to a championship a la TCU.

The main thing is the ACC needs to jump on it much like the B12 jumped on the opportunity to add UCF, BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, UA, ASU, CU, and Utah. The three we got are a start but aren't big enough to move the needle. ACC leadership especially needs to jump on Oregon St and Wazzu now before it's too late. Aside from Navy they are the only non-P4 teams in the top 50 most watched teams (OSU #20, Wazzu #43, GT is #52)

Two things. I moved your post here to the conference realignment thread because I thought it was spot on for this thread.

Also, I have to say that getting Navy not only adds a top 50 viewership program but helps us cement the relationship with ND to our advantage. If we have Stanford and Navy we have two of NDs bigger yearly matchups in our back pocket.

 

[apatriot1776]

Two things. I moved your post here to the conference realignment thread because I thought it was spot on for this thread.

Also, I have to say that getting Navy not only adds a top 50 viewership program but helps us cement the relationship with ND to our advantage. If we have Stanford and Navy we have two of NDs bigger yearly matchups in our back pocket.

Understood - wish we could cleanly section off everything so all realignment talk was quarantined to here, NIL talk was quarantined to one thread, and GT football/stadium discussion was on its own threads! Just the shortcoming of the forum concept I guess. People be having their side conversations.

 

[yeti92]

Given we've already derailed this thread about stadium expansions I'm going to give my 2 cents. The SEC and B1G are going to be done with expanding after Clemson/Florida St leave the ACC. The ACC will add teams (ideally Oregon St, Wazzu, SDSU, and USF - contingent on an on-campus stadium) and continue to exist roughly on par with the B12.

My reasoning being that there are very much diminishing returns for member schools after adding Clemson/FSU and the SEC/B1G are already running into scheduling chaos and difficult SOS affecting playoff chances. To join the SEC and be a net positive for the existing schools they would need to bring at least $58m of TV value to the deal. ACC programs just aren't valuable enough fanbases to go after. The B12 is going to run into a similar problem - realistically adding ACC teams is a sideways move financially and a negative move logistically. It’s not worth it for them to be a $900m conference with 30 teams vs a $600m conference with 20 teams. So we'll end up in a rump ACC "conference of misfit toys" but it's fine to me as long as 1) ACC leadership gets replaced, 2) we keep a decent recruiting base and 3) we have a realistic path to a championship a la TCU.

The main thing is the ACC needs to jump on it much like the B12 jumped on the opportunity to add UCF, BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, UA, ASU, CU, and Utah. The three we got are a start but aren't big enough to move the needle. ACC leadership especially needs to jump on Oregon St and Wazzu now before it's too late. Aside from Navy they are the only non-P4 teams in the top 50 most watched teams (OSU #20, Wazzu #43, GT is #52)

Good breakdown.

A quick google suggests the Atlanta DMA covers about 2.5m TV households, and while adding Tech doesn't help the SEC in that area, it would help the Big 10 - that's an extra ~$30m/yr ESPN makes for having an in-market team for the Big 10 network, before any football is even played. And while Tech does not have a huge fanbase of it's own, it's not tiny either and Atlanta is full of Big 10 transplants that would love to see their team playing here. You end up with higher in-person attendance and more eyeballs on screens. I'm not sure how the streaming/ad value of a particular team would be calculated, but I would think Tech does okay there. - not good, but not horrible either. On top of that, Tech has a number of intangibles the Big 10 would be interested in - AAU/excellent academics, greater access to the Southeast/Georgia for recruiting, rich football history, "rivalry" with ND, and they've offered Tech before. We also now seem to have a President and AD committed to athletics.


I'm not saying Tech is a lock or there are no potential downsides or that this is necessarily even the right move, but I think Tech does bring more to the table than some want to give us credit for, and for the Big 10 it just might make sense.

 

[stingerman]

Given we've already derailed this thread about stadium expansions I'm going to give my 2 cents. The SEC and B1G are going to be done with expanding after Clemson/Florida St leave the ACC. The ACC will add teams (ideally Oregon St, Wazzu, SDSU, and USF - contingent on an on-campus stadium) and continue to exist roughly on par with the B12.

My reasoning being that there are very much diminishing returns for member schools after adding Clemson/FSU and the SEC/B1G are already running into scheduling chaos and difficult SOS affecting playoff chances. To join the SEC and be a net positive for the existing schools they would need to bring at least $58m of TV value to the deal. ACC programs just aren't valuable enough fanbases to go after. The B12 is going to run into a similar problem - realistically adding ACC teams is a sideways move financially and a negative move logistically. It’s not worth it for them to be a $900m conference with 30 teams vs a $600m conference with 20 teams. So we'll end up in a rump ACC "conference of misfit toys" but it's fine to me as long as 1) ACC leadership gets replaced, 2) we keep a decent recruiting base and 3) we have a realistic path to a championship a la TCU.

The main thing is the ACC needs to jump on it much like the B12 jumped on the opportunity to add UCF, BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, UA, ASU, CU, and Utah. The three we got are a start but aren't big enough to move the needle. ACC leadership especially needs to jump on Oregon St and Wazzu now before it's too late. Aside from Navy they are the only non-P4 teams in the top 50 most watched teams (OSU #20, Wazzu #43, GT is #52)

Do you see any chance the ACC would poach from the B12?

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

Do you see any chance the ACC would poach from the B12?

IIRC, the Big 12 still has a grant of rights, meaning they would be hard to poach. Of course, if we get to the point of poaching before 2031, when the Big 12 media deal runs out, it's likely because our own GOR failed so their GOR might not be much protection.

If our GOR holds, then I would not be shocked to see us begin conversations with certain Big 12 schools as their contract expiration ended about bringing them into the ACC fold. It would help to shore up the conference prior to expected ACC departures in 2036.

 

[rfjeff9]

Given we've already derailed this thread about stadium expansions I'm going to give my 2 cents. The SEC and B1G are going to be done with expanding after Clemson/Florida St leave the ACC. The ACC will add teams (ideally Oregon St, Wazzu, SDSU, and USF - contingent on an on-campus stadium) and continue to exist roughly on par with the B12.

I have yet to see any reasonable evidence to convince me that SEC or B1G will ever add FSU or Clemson. SEC doesn't need either. And B1G Presidents seem pretty committed to AAU only schools and like big budget research schools. Neither team fit that bill, regardless if whether or not it is an official requirement. Presidents vote on B1G admission, not ADs or FOX. I think it is a bigger deal to them than the talking heads seem to realize. FSU fans seem to think they are about to gain AAU status but it is by invitation only, not some threshold they meet and suddenly they're in. From the recommendations they were given last year on what they needed to do, it didn't sound like a quick fix either.

I think SEC and B1G are done with expansion for the current media contract unless ND suddenly comes calling. Especially in the case of B1G.

 

[rfjeff9]

Good breakdown.

A quick google suggests the Atlanta DMA covers about 2.5m TV households, and while adding Tech doesn't help the SEC in that area, it would help the Big 10 - that's an extra ~$30m/yr ESPN makes for having an in-market team for the Big 10 network, before any football is even played. And while Tech does not have a huge fanbase of it's own, it's not tiny either and Atlanta is full of Big 10 transplants that would love to see their team playing here. You end up with higher in-person attendance and more eyeballs on screens. I'm not sure how the streaming/ad value of a particular team would be calculated, but I would think Tech does okay there. - not good, but not horrible either. On top of that, Tech has a number of intangibles the Big 10 would be interested in - AAU/excellent academics, greater access to the Southeast/Georgia for recruiting, rich football history, "rivalry" with ND, and they've offered Tech before. We also now seem to have a President and AD committed to athletics.


I'm not saying Tech is a lock or there are no potential downsides or that this is necessarily even the right move, but I think Tech does bring more to the table than some want to give us credit for, and for the Big 10 it just might make sense.

I think it would be a sure thing if our Financials didn't look so bad.

We have GOT to dig our way out of this debt.

 

[UgaBlows]

I think it would be a sure thing if our Financials didn't look so bad.

We have GOT to dig our way out of this debt.

Maryland had similar if not worse financials when they went to the BIG., it’s tough to think about how much better we would probably be looking right now financially if leadership had jumped on that offer.

 

[RonJohn]

Maryland had similar if not worse financials when they went to the BIG., it’s tough to think about how much better we would probably be looking right now financially if leadership had jumped on that offer.

Was Maryland more than $200 million in debt?

 

[rfjeff9]

Maryland had similar if not worse financials when they went to the BIG., it’s tough to think about how much better we would probably be looking right now financially if leadership had jumped on that offer.

Brings tears to my eyes every time I think about it. But in the other hand when it happened, I didn't want anything to do with it.

Hindsight en sech.

 

[slugboy]

I have yet to see any reasonable evidence to convince me that SEC or B1G will ever add FSU or Clemson. SEC doesn't need either. And B1G Presidents seem pretty committed to AAU only schools and like big budget research schools. Neither team fit that bill, regardless if whether or not it is an official requirement. Presidents vote on B1G admission, not ADs or FOX. I think it is a bigger deal to them than the talking heads seem to realize. FSU fans seem to think they are about to gain AAU status but it is by invitation only, not some threshold they meet and suddenly they're in. From the recommendations they were given last year on what they needed to do, it didn't sound like a quick fix either.

I think SEC and B1G are done with expansion for the current media contract unless ND suddenly comes calling. Especially in the case of B1G.

I’m not sure. I’ve seen some reputable reports that the B1G is only interested in Notre Dame. With the court cases, there’s a lot that can happen before FSU and Clemson are decided

 

[stinger78]

Two things. I moved your post here to the conference realignment thread because I thought it was spot on for this thread.

Also, I have to say that getting Navy not only adds a top 50 viewership program but helps us cement the relationship with ND to our advantage. If we have Stanford and Navy we have two of NDs bigger yearly matchups in our back pocket.

Not to mention the Armed Forces Network.

 

[stinger 1957]

Because it hurts too bad to talk about how GT has been far worse than Miami, and actually one of the worst bottom feeders in the conference. Ouch.

It does hurt but you always pay an enormous price coming out of the TO, it's even tougher for GT because we promise the kids a chance for a GT degree no matter what and CPJ I'm pretty sure gave up some of his buyout money in order to insure that we did exactly that, so we were stuck longer with kids that did not fit than other programs that have come out of the TO.
I now believe we are past the worst of the transition and on the way up, we shall see.

 

[WreckinGT]

I have yet to see any reasonable evidence to convince me that SEC or B1G will ever add FSU or Clemson. SEC doesn't need either. And B1G Presidents seem pretty committed to AAU only schools and like big budget research schools. Neither team fit that bill, regardless if whether or not it is an official requirement. Presidents vote on B1G admission, not ADs or FOX. I think it is a bigger deal to them than the talking heads seem to realize. FSU fans seem to think they are about to gain AAU status but it is by invitation only, not some threshold they meet and suddenly they're in. From the recommendations they were given last year on what they needed to do, it didn't sound like a quick fix either.

I think SEC and B1G are done with expansion for the current media contract unless ND suddenly comes calling. Especially in the case of B1G.

You are never going to have reasonable evidence of where FSU and Clemson are going until FSU and Clemson go somewhere. Its pretty likely that those decisions have already been made though. Same for some other ACC schools.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

Two things. I moved your post here to the conference realignment thread because I thought it was spot on for this thread.

Also, I have to say that getting Navy not only adds a top 50 viewership program but helps us cement the relationship with ND to our advantage. If we have Stanford and Navy we have two of NDs bigger yearly matchups in our back pocket.

Agree but if we don’t get Notre Dame then adding Navy doesn’t move the needle. Would be nice to get some assurances from ND before we add anymore “bait” teams that aren’t championship caliber. Just my opinion.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

Agree but if we don’t get Notre Dame then adding Navy doesn’t move the needle. Would be nice to get some assurances from ND before we add anymore “bait” teams that aren’t championship caliber. Just my opinion.

You don't have to "get" them but you can renegotiate the amount of games played. Push them to 7-8 games a year. More high end TV inventory for ESPN.

 

[bke1984]

Maybe they are what they have always been. Playing and winning the Big East didn't mean they were going to dominate the ACC.

Perhaps you should go look at their 2002 roster and reassess what they were and what they are.

 

[rfjeff9]

You are never going to have reasonable evidence of where FSU and Clemson are going until FSU and Clemson go somewhere. Its pretty likely that those decisions have already been made though. Same for some other ACC schools.

"evidence" wasn't the right word. Rather I should have said that I hadn't heard a reasonable argument convincing me of such.

I know everyone thinks FSU already has a landing spot, but I have still not heard anything to convince me it is B1G or SEC. To hear FSU fans is it's a done deal but when pressed, their only argument is that B1G wold be crazy not to take them even without AAU. That's all they have - their school is too special to not get invited.

I'm not convinced. Straw polls exist, but with all the mess this has turned out to be I am doubtful either conference wants them now and certainly not without owning their media rights.

 

[stinger78]

I can see the ACC and the BE merging to become a 26-team basketball behemoth.