Conference Realignment

[Techster]

Don't know how legit this is, but it makes sense for ESPN and the SEC...ESPN does a lot of string pulling behind the scenes to make contracts advantageous for themselves. It's no secret that ESPN considers the SEC their golden child.

Some things to consider:

1. His "source" does address the GOR and whether it runs concurrent (i.e. lives/dies with the ESPN deal) with the ESPN deal. The GOR and amendment seem to hint that it does.

2. ACC will take a financial hit once Clemson and FSU leaves the conference. Anyone that didn't believe that ACC losing their marquee brands wouldn't impact overall value of the ACC media contract hasn't been paying attention (See PAC12 and USC/UCLA/Oregon/Washington).

3. 2027 date keeps popping up...and it makes sense if you think about how ESPN set up the CFB playoff contract that it can renegotiate terms in 2028 if realignment occurs. Well, if this string of tweets is correct, it appears ESPN was doing some puppeteering all along. Could there be collusion between ESPN/SEC? Discovery process in that lawsuit would be fascinating, but I'm sure ESPN would insert some clause that the ACC couldn't sue if they agree to certain terms.

4. SEC has wanted UNC for a while...would they be involved somehow? Can't imagine ESPN leaving UNC out in the wilderness for the B1G to crawl into the South and new territory (for both SEC and B1G).

5. If the string of tweets is true, the ACC days are numbered. ESPN appears to be playing the long game of poaching the best brands in SEC territory, moving them to the SEC, and keeping the B1G out of the territory of their biggest collegiate investment.





EDIT:

David Hale with his thoughts on the tweets above:

 

[slugboy]

Don't know how legit this is, but it makes sense for ESPN and the SEC...ESPN does a lot of string pulling behind the scenes to make contracts advantageous for themselves. It's no secret that ESPN considers the SEC their golden child.

Some things to consider:

1. His "source" does address the GOR and whether it runs concurrent (i.e. lives/dies with the ESPN deal) with the ESPN deal. The GOR and amendment seem to hint that it does.

2. ACC will take a financial hit once Clemson and FSU leaves the conference. Anyone that didn't believe that ACC losing their marquee brands wouldn't impact overall value of the ACC media contract hasn't been paying attention (See PAC12 and USC/UCLA/Oregon/Washington).

3. 2027 date keeps popping up...and it makes sense if you think about how ESPN set up the CFB playoff contract that it can renegotiate terms in 2028 if realignment occurs. Well, if this string of tweets is correct, it appears ESPN was doing some puppeteering all along. Could there be collusion between ESPN/SEC? Discovery process in that lawsuit would be fascinating, but I'm sure ESPN would insert some clause that the ACC couldn't sue if they agree to certain terms.

4. SEC has wanted UNC for a while...would they be involved somehow? Can't imagine ESPN leaving UNC out in the wilderness for the B1G to crawl into the South and new territory (for both SEC and B1G).

5. If the string of tweets is true, the ACC days are numbered. ESPN appears to be playing the long game of poaching the best brands in SEC territory, moving them to the SEC, and keeping the B1G out of the territory of their biggest collegiate investment.





EDIT:

David Hale with his thoughts on the tweets above:

That guy (Lambert) is a WVU guy, and apparently known for tweeting a lot of stuff that never happens

 

[orientalnc]

That guy (Lambert) is a WVU guy, and apparently known for tweeting a lot of stuff that never happens

I was about to post the exact message. This is a B12 wet dream.

 

[Techster]

That guy (Lambert) is a WVU guy, and apparently known for tweeting a lot of stuff that never happens

Yeah, no clue who that guys is. Just looked at the details of his tweet and a lot of it line up with what we've all been discussing...and ESPN tends to control a lot of what's been going on lately.

2026-2027 isn't far away. We're all watching realignment theatre play out in real time.

 

[orientalnc]

Yeah, no clue who that guys is. Just looked at the details of his tweet and a lot of it line up with what we've all been discussing...and ESPN tends to control a lot of what's been going on lately.

2026-2027 isn't far away. We're all watching realignment theatre play out in real time.

My first thought is, "Why would the SEC agree to this?"

 

[Techster]

My first thought is, "Why would the SEC agree to this?"

Depends. If it increases their revenue to each school, why not? If it means the B1G can't come into "SEC territory" and poach two of the biggest brands in the Southeast, even better.

 

[UgaBlows]

ESPN is driving the car and always has been….everyone- conferences, schools, fans are just along for the ride awaiting new orders from our cfb overlord

 

[gtbb]

Don't know how legit this is, but it makes sense for ESPN and the SEC...ESPN does a lot of string pulling behind the scenes to make contracts advantageous for themselves. It's no secret that ESPN considers the SEC their golden child.

Some things to consider:

1. His "source" does address the GOR and whether it runs concurrent (i.e. lives/dies with the ESPN deal) with the ESPN deal. The GOR and amendment seem to hint that it does.

2. ACC will take a financial hit once Clemson and FSU leaves the conference. Anyone that didn't believe that ACC losing their marquee brands wouldn't impact overall value of the ACC media contract hasn't been paying attention (See PAC12 and USC/UCLA/Oregon/Washington).

3. 2027 date keeps popping up...and it makes sense if you think about how ESPN set up the CFB playoff contract that it can renegotiate terms in 2028 if realignment occurs. Well, if this string of tweets is correct, it appears ESPN was doing some puppeteering all along. Could there be collusion between ESPN/SEC? Discovery process in that lawsuit would be fascinating, but I'm sure ESPN would insert some clause that the ACC couldn't sue if they agree to certain terms.

4. SEC has wanted UNC for a while...would they be involved somehow? Can't imagine ESPN leaving UNC out in the wilderness for the B1G to crawl into the South and new territory (for both SEC and B1G).

5. If the string of tweets is true, the ACC days are numbered. ESPN appears to be playing the long game of poaching the best brands in SEC territory, moving them to the SEC, and keeping the B1G out of the territory of their biggest collegiate investment.





EDIT:

David Hale with his thoughts on the tweets above:

Not sure if I believe CW Lambert, as I have no information and he's just a guy rambling on twitter. But let's assume for a second that he's correct. If Clemson & FSU go into the SEC, then the B1G has to turn to other Southern-based programs to expand their footprint. And this could potentially put us squarely into the Big 10's bullseye. IMO, it would raise our chances of being courted by the B1G from 0.01% to about 10%. The B1G wants to have a recruiting footprint in the South. Once you take Clemson & FSU off the table, they have to turn to either North Carolina or Miami or us. I'm still not sold that UVA is on anyone's radar.

Again, I have doubts about the truthfulness of Lambert. But we need to get our program standing on solid ground internally, and make ourselves attractive. Because if FSU & Clemson go SEC, this likely opens a door for Tech.

 

[Techster]

Not sure if I believe CW Lambert, as I have no information and he's just a guy rambling on twitter. But let's assume for a second that he's correct. If Clemson & FSU go into the SEC, then the B1G has to turn to other Southern-based programs to expand their footprint. And this could potentially put us squarely into the Big 10's bullseye. IMO, it would raise our chances of being courted by the B1G from 0.01% to about 10%. The B1G wants to have a recruiting footprint in the South. Once you take Clemson & FSU off the table, they have to turn to either North Carolina or Miami or us. I'm still not sold that UVA is on anyone's radar.

Again, I have doubts about the truthfulness of Lambert. But we need to get our program standing on solid ground internally, and make ourselves attractive. Because if FSU & Clemson go SEC, this likely opens a door for Tech.

Yeah, I don't know. Some of the info just lines up with what we've discussed on here.

In terms of GT and B1G...I tend to think GT is already "in". Would be VERY VERY hard for the B1G to overlook Atlanta as an expansion target regardless of where sports is going with streaming. I've fleshed it out over the years so I'll refrain from doing it again, but I don't think the B1G can pass up the opportunity to grab a school in the biggest market in the South, and one of the biggest markets in the country.

 

[gtbeak]

Not sure if I believe CW Lambert, as I have no information and he's just a guy rambling on twitter. But let's assume for a second that he's correct. If Clemson & FSU go into the SEC, then the B1G has to turn to other Southern-based programs to expand their footprint. And this could potentially put us squarely into the Big 10's bullseye. IMO, it would raise our chances of being courted by the B1G from 0.01% to about 10%. The B1G wants to have a recruiting footprint in the South. Once you take Clemson & FSU off the table, they have to turn to either North Carolina or Miami or us. I'm still not sold that UVA is on anyone's radar.

Again, I have doubts about the truthfulness of Lambert. But we need to get our program standing on solid ground internally, and make ourselves attractive. Because if FSU & Clemson go SEC, this likely opens a door for Tech.

As previously mentioned, The Dude (CW Lambert) has been on Twitter for over 10 years, going back to the beginning of the realignment stuff in the early 2010's. He is not only a Big 12 homer, but in those 10+ years he has been wrong on nearly every one of his "predictions". He is the college sports equivalent of The Onion or The Babylon Bee except that he doesn't admit to being a parody account.

 

[RonJohn]

Why would the SEC want FSU and Clemson as opposed to UNC and UVA, where they will get more money?
Why would ESPN pay more money for content that they already have and pay less money for currently? His statement that ESPN wouldn't lose money is simply wrong. His idea is that a percentage of the SEC revenue would go the the ACC. Either they are paying more to the SEC for adding FSU or FSU is getting zero out of it. If FSU is getting net less than they get in the ACC now, why does it make sense fo them? He is making a circular argument that doesn't make sense. If it is net zero for the ACC, net zero for ESPN, and FSU gets more money, where does that money come from? Details matter and the math has to add up to something. He seems to be saying that ESPN's costs won't increase and everybody makes more money. The math doesn' make sense.

As other have said, this guy has made bold "predictions" in the past that never happen. If this random guy on Twitter has a reliable source that is providing accurate information, why do no respectable journalists have the information? Seeking clicks and reTweets is what social media people do. Telling the truth isn't what they do.

 

[roadkill]

Why would the SEC want FSU and Clemson as opposed to UNC and UVA, where they will get more money?
Why would ESPN pay more money for content that they already have and pay less money for currently? His statement that ESPN wouldn't lose money is simply wrong. His idea is that a percentage of the SEC revenue would go the the ACC. Either they are paying more to the SEC for adding FSU or FSU is getting zero out of it. If FSU is getting net less than they get in the ACC now, why does it make sense fo them? He is making a circular argument that doesn't make sense. If it is net zero for the ACC, net zero for ESPN, and FSU gets more money, where does that money come from? Details matter and the math has to add up to something. He seems to be saying that ESPN's costs won't increase and everybody makes more money. The math doesn' make sense.

As other have said, this guy has made bold "predictions" in the past that never happen. If this random guy on Twitter has a reliable source that is providing accurate information, why do no respectable journalists have the information? Seeking clicks and reTweets is what social media people do. Telling the truth isn't what they do.

I was about to make essentially the same argument, but you've done so in fewer words.

 

[CEB]

My first thought is, "Why would the SEC agree to this?”

More so, why would the ACC agree to any of it? I know it’s the cool thing to do amongst the internet sages to point and laugh at the supposed impotence and ineptness of the ACC, but if ESPN wants FSU and Clem that badly, it would be a master stroke of stupidity for the ACC to say, “sure, we will give them up and happily take less for it.”

 

[Techster]

More so, why would the ACC agree to any of it? I know it’s the cool thing to do amongst the internet sages to point and laugh at the supposed impotence and ineptness of the ACC, but if ESPN wants FSU and Clem that badly, it would be a master stroke of stupidity for the ACC to say, “sure, we will give them up and happily take less for it.”

What that guy on twitter said is if the ACC didn't agree to it, ESPN would just opt out in 2027 and essentially the ACC teams could leave anyways and the ACC would be in the same position the PAC12 was in.

This goes with the theory that the GOR runs concurrently with the ESPN media deal that was amended to extend until 2036. Basically, the ACC GOR dies when the ESPN deal dies. The overall point is ESPN will play hardball with the ACC to move the valuable pieces where they want.

Before anyone says, "Why would ESPN kill their most profitable collegiate deal"? It's even more profitable for ESPN to NOT pay the majority of ACC, and have the valuable teams in conferences they already have under contract.

Again I don't know who this guy is, and I also believe this guy is probably 80% speculating, but there are a lot of details of that twitter thread that do match up with what's going on.

 

[GoJacketsInRaleigh]

The Dude from WV will literally ejaculate all over himself the second the ACC dies because he's had a quarter century grudge for WVU getting rejected multiple times. I wouldn't believe one word he says. He's always posted "rumors" about conference expansion and never been right about anything in his life. He's a joke.

 

[cpf2001]

Yeah the idea that ESPN would try to arrange the top ACC teams to the SEC at a higher rate, another bunch of teams to the Big 12 where they still get a bunch of those content for about the same effective spending per team as today, and leave the Wake Forest and whoevers out to dry instead of paying for them for 10+ more years makes some cold sense.

 

[Techster]

The Dude from WV will literally ejaculate all over himself the second the ACC dies because he's had a quarter century grudge for WVU getting rejected multiple times. I wouldn't believe one word he says. He's always posted "rumors" about conference expansion and never been right about anything in his life. He's a joke.

There's a hand few of guys on Twitter that got their huge following due to getting the scoop on realignment movement before the legacy media did. A LOT of their stuff is wrong, but they were right enough times to build a big following. This is one example:




Twitter is a lot of trash...but sometimes there's a lot good info. Just have to know who's who.

 

[GTflyer0116]

I think you need to do some research on Dave Ramsey before you quote him. He got his start on Nashville local radio after he went bankrupt as a real estate developer. He based his financial peace university stich on a single line from the bible; "neither a borrower nor lender be". Now he did some good teaching this at local church's because most people can use some financial discipline; but he was not and to this day I do not believe he is a financial expert. I used to hear his return callers say you told me to sell this or that but did not tell me about the tax implications or you told me to sell my house but did not tell me about penalities for prepaying a mortgage.

He recently gave a seminar at a local church in North Atlanta and he is still preaching his borrower/lender approach; and people still need financial discipline. But he still is not a financial expert.

I am simply quoting the results of his study that showed engineers in general clearly take care and save their money. That has nothing to do with your opinion Dave.

 

[CEB]

What that guy on twitter said is if the ACC didn't agree to it, ESPN would just opt out in 2027 and essentially the ACC teams could leave anyways and the ACC would be in the same position the PAC12 was in.

This goes with the theory that the GOR runs concurrently with the ESPN media deal that was amended to extend until 2036. Basically, the ACC GOR dies when the ESPN deal dies. The overall point is ESPN will play hardball with the ACC to move the valuable pieces where they want.

Before anyone says, "Why would ESPN kill their most profitable collegiate deal"? It's even more profitable for ESPN to NOT pay the majority of ACC, and have the valuable teams in conferences they already have under contract.

Again I don't know who this guy is, and I also believe this guy is probably 80% speculating, but there are a lot of details of that twitter thread that do match up with what's going on.

Don’t disagree… my point is that the only leverage the ACC has is the media value of its biggest brands.
I think if I were the ACC and if ESPN really valued FSU and Clem that much, I would call their bluff. If ESPN kills it in ‘27, it’s likely ESPN loses those assets to Fox via the BiG.
I just don’t see the ACC agreeing to let them go AND take less in the process.
This is all so weird that networks are driving this… I guess in a roundabout way, it’s true.

 

[Vespidae]

This is all so weird that networks are driving this… I guess in a roundabout way, it’s true.

Since 2014, college football has become nothing more than programming content. The bowl games (a number of them are owned outright by ESPN), the CFP (a made for tv event), Game Day (number one sports show) are all about viewership.