Conference Realignment

[roadkill]

The University of Oklahoma and others sued the NCAA back in 1984 for the rights to create TV contracts and be on the air more often

NCAA v. Board of Regents of the University of Oklahoma - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Before that, the NCAA was severely limiting the number of games on TV and the individual appearances. GT practically couldn’t get on TV. It’s part of at least 50 years of the NCAA making bad strategic decisions

They could have a shared NFL style contract, if they hadn’t blown it years ago

What is puzzling to me is that, while the NCAA can be justifiably criticized for a complete and continuing lack of strategic thinking for football, they somehow managed to grow their basketball tournament into a billion-dollar extravaganza while overtaking the NIT in relevance.

 

[Root4GT]

The Tier stuff is a bunch of crap. Just look at some games and make a rating.

Ratings are mostly driven on time slots. The main time slots will be given to the Tier 1 teams and the rest get the 1200 or on ESPNU at some strange hour.

Look at the times of the major viewed games. Besides OSU-Michigan which is always 1200 the major viewed games are at 3:30 Eastern time and between 7:30 /8:00pm Eastern times on CBS, FOX or the main ESPN channel.

How many GT games were in those slots / Channels last year?

 

[stinger78]

I don't think anyone is arguing that the SEC and B1G are not the strongest conferences in football. How that strength should be recognized in the CFP is the point where opinions diverge.

Exactly. No need for 12 or 24 teams from 4 conferences. Just put the conference champs in and let them play. Easy peasy… but the money left on the table!!! Oh, the humanity!!’

 

[Root4GT]

Exactly. No need for 12 or 24 teams from 4 conferences. Just put the conference champs in and let them play. Easy peasy… but the money left on the table!!! Oh, the humanity!!’

 

[roadkill]

The problem for CFB is that they want NFL like money, but don't organize themselves like the NFL. Can imagine if all 32 NFL teams let 6 determine who gets spots in the Playoffs and who gets what share of the revenue? All CFB has done is lock in who the perpetual winners are.

To your point, organization is key, and currently, it is a chaotic mix. College football has long suffered from having hundreds of teams and schools with vastly different resources. Conferences evolved to support regional contests between near-peer schools when travel and scheduling were more challenging. The NCAA evolved to support uniform rules around player safety, amateurism, and parity. Unfortunately, this also resulted in power conflicts between these organizations. When the TV money got big, the NCAA ceded more power to the conferences. And now we have a third entity in the mix, the CFP.

The NCAA has already proposed a new top-tier subdivision. This approach is consistent with the way the NCAA has created the current divisions, which have always evolved and changed over time. One key difference in the latest proposal is that the NCAA wants to cede even more power to the top subdivision concerning rule-making.

As I see it, the biggest challenge with the proposed new subdivision is conference organization. Conceivably, a simple approach splits D1 at the P4/G5 juncture, placing about 65 teams in the highest tier. This has happened organically anyway, to a large degree. But what if the consensus is that you need or want only 32 NFL-lite teams in the top subdivision? If there are 65 teams in the P4, how do you create a subdivision smaller than that without breaking up conferences or cherry-picking from them? One obvious way is to simply allow the SEC and B1G to be the top tier. It's already headed in that direction for the CFP. FSU and Clemson see that train coming and want desperately to jump on it for the sake of their future relevance.

Another thought that preserves the current conference arrangement would be to take the NCAA's proposal, keep the P4 together as the top tier, and let their separate governance organization be aligned with the CFP. They could then take a page from the NFL playoffs and let each conference have their top 4-8 teams selected for the playoffs, plus wild cards, for a 32-team playoff tournament. Limit the number of non-P4 games in the regular season, even if it means dropping a game to make room for more playoff games. Maximize the spectacle and the media money.

 

[Randy Carson]

How does TV money get handled in this scenario of promotion and relegation? Let me know. The Big10 and SEC are already at the top and trying to lock that permanently in as best they can, they aren't going to agree to a TV revenue situation where any of their teams might fall, and they aren't going to agree to equal revenue distribution with the other leagues/conferences/levels.

Imagine two leagues of 32 teams each: the Premier League and the Champions League. Whichever league your school is in, you get 1/32 of that league's TV revenue for the year.

So, if television contracts for the Premier League are worth $320 Million, you get $10 Million for playing in the the bigs. If the Champions League only brings in $32 Million, you get 1/32 or $1 Million. IOW, getting relegated could cost you a boatload of cash.

Best advice: don't lose.

 

[Randy Carson]

The real problem is that all schools are not alike. Like HS, there should be tiers where schools of similar resources can compete against each other. Even within the SEC or B1G, only a handful of teams are good on a consistent basis.

Cap FBS at 128 teams, divide into 4 tiers of 32 each and create Natties for each.

Thank you, and welcome to the English Football system.

That's one convert down, and just a few more to go...

 

[Randy Carson]

And by the way, the Big and the SEC can do whatever they want...but what percentage of the overall fanbase do they control?

A minority portion.

So, sure, they are going to get eyeballs from people who want to see the games...but the vast majority of football consumers will NOT be alumni of those schools.

Capiche?

So, the other 120 or so schools can set up a fair and equitable system that gives YOUR alma mater a shot at a national title. Are you going to watch?

Your bet your sweet bippy you will.

 

[Vespidae]

The roblmbecomes TV viewers are highly concentrated on Tier 1 in your scheme. Tire 1 schools then will want proportional money commensurate with viewers. TV networks will agree as that is where their money comes from. Soon there after Tires 2-4 are FCS and Division II level schools.

Probably true. But ilower tier schools will have proportionately lower expenses too.

 

[iceeater1969]

Probably true. But ilower tier schools will have proportionately lower expenses too.

And there a lot more of these schools / players who vote to have more money

 

[SOWEGA Jacket]

Exactly. No need for 12 or 24 teams from 4 conferences. Just put the conference champs in and let them play. Easy peasy… but the money left on the table!!! Oh, the humanity!!’

In what other team sport does losing 1 game cost a chance at a championship? None. You know why? Because it’s a ridiculous concept and team sports are about getting better. You guys who somehow believe the college football regular season is more special than any other sport are ridiculous and thankfully you no longer hold the power. No game in August, September, or October should, nor is, as important as games in November and the playoffs.

I get that 90,000 people love to spend a weekend in September to watch a fun game like Florida/LSU or GT/FSU but in no way should those games be elimination games. That’s a formula for killing a sport and fanbases. You telling me that GT’s season could be over with a loss on August 24? And everyone has finally agreed primarily because the folks who have held this sport hostage for the bowl execs have lost power to the TV people. This sport is finally entering the modern era which is why it is gaining in popularity and why the usual powers are whining about the changes. NIL, the portal, and expanded playoffs are all positives and will lead to greater parity and more fans.

 

[orientalnc]

In what other team sport does losing 1 game cost a chance at a championship? None. You know why? Because it’s a ridiculous concept and team sports are about getting better. You guys who somehow believe the college football regular season is more special than any other sport are ridiculous and thankfully you no longer hold the power. No game in August, September, or October should, nor is, as important as games in November and the playoffs.

I get that 90,000 people love to spend a weekend in September to watch a fun game like Florida/LSU or GT/FSU but in no way should those games be elimination games. That’s a formula for killing a sport and fanbases. You telling me that GT’s season could be over with a loss on August 24? And everyone has finally agreed primarily because the folks who have held this sport hostage for the bowl execs have lost power to the TV people. This sport is finally entering the modern era which is why it is gaining in popularity and why the usual powers are whining about the changes. NIL, the portal, and expanded playoffs are all positives and will lead to greater parity and more fans.

I think you & I mostly agree about this, but the "modern era" begins when teams are not selected to be in the playoff. Every team should have to earn their way in by winning, or at least playing for, their conference championship. I believe it's fine to say some conferences are just not the big leagues. We have seen that in baseball for over 100 years. But no MLB team is selected for the playoffs. Same in the NFL and NBA. You want a real CFB you have have a real playoff.

The notion that the 3rd place team in the SEC or B1G can play for the national championship is crazy.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

You said "The thing that reinforces the myth of superiority is playing patsies from other conferences, coupled with having winning records. Take away those two things and the SEC and B1G become just another conference that has a couple of good teams."

"Conferences", not "schools". So I am responding to that. And the data I provided demonstrates that the very best players tend to play in the SEC (at various schools).

You are not "just another conference" if your ten-year recruiting record demonstrates having the best athletes year after year AND huge fanbases that want to watch them.

We are talking about an implemented change that would greatly impact the won loss records of most teams. Yes, the SEC gets the most top prospects but most of those go to 3 or 4 schools at most. The point is all those other schools rely on reflected glory. Make the SEC just like another conference and you end up with more Vanderbilts than you do Alabamas. I think even the most cultish SEC fan isn’t going to impressed by a team that has zero quality wins.

 

[stinger78]

I think you & I mostly agree about this, but the "modern era" begins when teams are not selected to be in the playoff. Every team should have to earn their way in by winning, or at least playing for, their conference championship. I believe it's fine to say some conferences are just not the big leagues. We have seen that in baseball for over 100 years. But no MLB team is selected for the playoffs. Same in the NFL and NBA. You want a real CFB you have have a real playoff.

The notion that the 3rd place team in the SEC or B1G can play for the national championship is crazy.

While an undefeated conference champion is left out.

 

[JacketOff]

If the ACC leveraged its success in the NCAA basketball postseason as well as the SEC has its football success, the ACC would probably be looked at as the #2 conference in the country.

It’s the best basketball conference with the 2nd most CFB natties since the BCS era. And the only conference outside of the SEC to have more than 1 team win multiple championships in the BCS era.

Marketing. That’s all anything is nowadays, it’s just marketing. You don’t even need to have a good product to make money, as long as you market it well. In fact, you can have a dog**** product, but if you have a successful marketing campaign you’ll still make a profit.

 

[roadkill]

I think you & I mostly agree about this, but the "modern era" begins when teams are not selected to be in the playoff. Every team should have to earn their way in by winning, or at least playing for, their conference championship. I believe it's fine to say some conferences are just not the big leagues. We have seen that in baseball for over 100 years. But no MLB team is selected for the playoffs. Same in the NFL and NBA. You want a real CFB you have have a real playoff.

The notion that the 3rd place team in the SEC or B1G can play for the national championship is crazy.

For the NFL playoffs, each conference sends 7 teams to the playoffs, representing each division winner, plus 3 wild cards based on W/L record. The CFP could adopt a similar system for the P4, which could allow each conference to send both division winners, plus another team if it had a sufficient W/L record. This would result in some conferences sending their third-place team to the playoffs.

I'm not saying that would be the best way to handle the CFP, but I've not heard complaints that the NFL's system is crazy.

 

[MWBATL]

I've not heard complaints that the NFL's system is crazy.

Let me be the first. The NFL, like MLB, simply puts on playoffs to make money. If you choose to believe the World Series or the Super Bowl winner is actually the best team in that sports….um, think again.

 

[RonJohn]

Let me be the first. The NFL, like MLB, simply puts on playoffs to make money. If you choose to believe the World Series or the Super Bowl winner is actually the best team in that sports….um, think again.

You will never get 100% agreement on "best" team. You can get 100% agreement on a champion from a championship tournament. If the goal is to crown a "best" team, then get rid of the playoffs, and go back to a system that doesn't have a "champion" at all, but "best" teams that are declared by the AP writers, or coaches, or another random media company.

In the NFL, how many people can remember who the "best" team of each year? How many people know who had the best NFL record in 2011? How many people know that the Giants won the Super Bowl that season, even though they had a 9-7 record? "Best" doesn't matter in the NFL. Winning the Super Bowl does matter.

 

[SOWEGA Jacket]

You will never get 100% agreement on "best" team. You can get 100% agreement on a champion from a championship tournament. If the goal is to crown a "best" team, then get rid of the playoffs, and go back to a system that doesn't have a "champion" at all, but "best" teams that are declared by the AP writers, or coaches, or another random media company.

In the NFL, how many people can remember who the "best" team of each year? How many people know who had the best NFL record in 2011? How many people know that the Giants won the Super Bowl that season, even though they had a 9-7 record? "Best" doesn't matter in the NFL. Winning the Super Bowl does matter.

Exactly. All that matters are the playoffs. The Giants won when the games actually mattered. They used the regular season to see what worked and what didnt. Then when the playoffs started they were fully prepared to handle all adversity and success. A team like the Patriots weren’t as well prepared even though they hadn’t lost. My earlier point was about the antiquated system of only conference champs making a playoff. Thats just nuts to say that on August 24 either GT or FSU would be essentially eliminated from contention. Hope is what fills stadiums and opens wallets. You want Bobby Dod filled - expand the playoffs to 32 teams then have GT field a solid team. Our fans would show up due to hope. What we’ve seen for a decade now is a fanbase with zero hope by mid September. Luckily, the playoffs will keep being expanded and within 15 years we’ll have a true system of 30 plus teams and the ratings will be incredible.

 

[roadkill]

The NFL simply plays games to make money, period. That's what it's always been about. It's also what the CFP is about. Sometimes the champion is also the best team, but the primary purpose is an entertainment business.