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I try to track the players every year so here is a very early look at how the players at each position are comparing this year to last year. Note this is 7 games vs 37 games. EPI is an efficiency ranking that uses the players stats to calculate an efficiency rating.
in tracking ACC games only it generally works out to >1 is potential 1st team all-ACC.
.90 - 1 is potential second team
.80 - .90 is potential 3rd team
.60 - .80 is ACC starter
.40 - .60 is ACC backup
Below .4 is generally deep reserve.
Note that players EPI tend to go down in ACC play, so these ones are slightly inflated, but at least give some comparison.
PG - This is basically comparing alvarado (avg 33.4 mpg) against Heath (30.8 mpg). I'll throw Moore in here as well (he avg 18 mpg last yr and is avg 16 mpg this year). So far this is a huge plus for this season. Alvarado is avg almost 3 times as many ppg, twice as many rebounds per game and is shooting better at all 3 levels. Heath avg more apg and assists per minute but Jose's Ast:TO ratio is better. Basically Jose is already a large step up from Heath and that will grow over the next couple of years. Not surprisingly Jose's EPI rating of .968 is well higher than Heath's .469 was from last year. .968 would have been the third highest on last year's team behind Lammers and Okogie and is currently the 2nd highest on this year's team. Moore was a solid backup last season, but unfortunately he has been worse in every phase of the game so far this year. i expect his minutes to dwindle to very small numbers once JO is back. For 33 min per game this is a big edge to this year.
Wings - I'm going to divide this out a little. First let's look at Jackson on his own.
Right now Jackson is avg 8 more mpg than last year. His scoring is up about 2 per game, but his per min scoring is down just slightly. His shooting from both 2 and 3 is down from last season and his FT shooting is the same. On the positive side his rebounding is way up from last year. On the negative side his assists are down and his TO are up. All this works out that is EPI is currently running a little behind last year - .712 vs .829. i suspect that is will increase once Josh is back. Tad is great as the #3 or 4 guy, but with Josh out and Ben hurt he is having to do more than he is probably able to do well. Overall i would simply say Tad is Tad. Pretty much a push.
The rest of the comparison is largely between Josh O and Corey H against Curtis and Alston. Not surprisingly this favors last year, but not by nearly as much as you would think. The ppg and rpg are actually pretty close - about a point and rebound difference per game from last year. Assists and TO actually favor this year slightly due largely to Curtis' excellent ballhandling. Steals and blocks favor last year but Haywood and Alston are better shooters.
Overall the edge goes to last year, but it's just a small win, which is a big deal for this year's team since they don't have Josh playing yet. Josh had an EPI last year of .970 and Corey was .280. Currently Curtis is .794 and Alston is .495.
Overall i would say the perimeter is slightly better right now than last year and given Josh hasn't played yet this year that is really encouraging. You would expect once Josh returns that the perimeter overall will be much stronger than last year. it also will have more talented depth which will likely allow GT to play small ball more if it wants to at the 4.
PF - While PG is a big plus for this year's team, PF is not. This is basically a comparison of Gueye and Wright to Stephens. Not surprisingly, Stephens leads pretty much across the board - ppg, rpg, apg, spg, shoots better at all levels. This should not be a surprise to anyone. FWIW Stephen's EPI was .706 last year. Gueye is .374 (he was .266 last year so he is playing better compared to last year) and Wright is .388. This is just the weakest spot on the team and why i think when Josh returns we will see small ball on a fairly regular basis. The good news is the negative here year over year is less than the positive at the PG position. if we could get one of the bigs to the .50 -.60 range then i think GT would be fine.
C - This is basically comparing Lammers to Lammers. His scoring is up slightly from last year while his rebounding is down slightly (likely due to injury). His assists are down relative to last year and his shooting is pretty consistent. While right now his EPI is lower than last year .968 vs 1.008, it was trending higher before his injury. My belief is that a 100% Ben this year will be better than a 100% Ben last year, but basically this is largely a push right now.
Comparing early in the season i would say PG is a big gain this year, PF is a significant loss, the center is largely a wash and the wings are a slight loss, but that is likely to change as Josh returns.
I'm actually pretty excited about our potential perimeter group next year. A rotation of Jose, Josh, Curtis, Devoe and Phillips may be our deepest, most talented group since the Jack, Bynum, Elder, Muhammad, Lewis group.
in tracking ACC games only it generally works out to >1 is potential 1st team all-ACC.
.90 - 1 is potential second team
.80 - .90 is potential 3rd team
.60 - .80 is ACC starter
.40 - .60 is ACC backup
Below .4 is generally deep reserve.
Note that players EPI tend to go down in ACC play, so these ones are slightly inflated, but at least give some comparison.
PG - This is basically comparing alvarado (avg 33.4 mpg) against Heath (30.8 mpg). I'll throw Moore in here as well (he avg 18 mpg last yr and is avg 16 mpg this year). So far this is a huge plus for this season. Alvarado is avg almost 3 times as many ppg, twice as many rebounds per game and is shooting better at all 3 levels. Heath avg more apg and assists per minute but Jose's Ast:TO ratio is better. Basically Jose is already a large step up from Heath and that will grow over the next couple of years. Not surprisingly Jose's EPI rating of .968 is well higher than Heath's .469 was from last year. .968 would have been the third highest on last year's team behind Lammers and Okogie and is currently the 2nd highest on this year's team. Moore was a solid backup last season, but unfortunately he has been worse in every phase of the game so far this year. i expect his minutes to dwindle to very small numbers once JO is back. For 33 min per game this is a big edge to this year.
Wings - I'm going to divide this out a little. First let's look at Jackson on his own.
Right now Jackson is avg 8 more mpg than last year. His scoring is up about 2 per game, but his per min scoring is down just slightly. His shooting from both 2 and 3 is down from last season and his FT shooting is the same. On the positive side his rebounding is way up from last year. On the negative side his assists are down and his TO are up. All this works out that is EPI is currently running a little behind last year - .712 vs .829. i suspect that is will increase once Josh is back. Tad is great as the #3 or 4 guy, but with Josh out and Ben hurt he is having to do more than he is probably able to do well. Overall i would simply say Tad is Tad. Pretty much a push.
The rest of the comparison is largely between Josh O and Corey H against Curtis and Alston. Not surprisingly this favors last year, but not by nearly as much as you would think. The ppg and rpg are actually pretty close - about a point and rebound difference per game from last year. Assists and TO actually favor this year slightly due largely to Curtis' excellent ballhandling. Steals and blocks favor last year but Haywood and Alston are better shooters.
Overall the edge goes to last year, but it's just a small win, which is a big deal for this year's team since they don't have Josh playing yet. Josh had an EPI last year of .970 and Corey was .280. Currently Curtis is .794 and Alston is .495.
Overall i would say the perimeter is slightly better right now than last year and given Josh hasn't played yet this year that is really encouraging. You would expect once Josh returns that the perimeter overall will be much stronger than last year. it also will have more talented depth which will likely allow GT to play small ball more if it wants to at the 4.
PF - While PG is a big plus for this year's team, PF is not. This is basically a comparison of Gueye and Wright to Stephens. Not surprisingly, Stephens leads pretty much across the board - ppg, rpg, apg, spg, shoots better at all levels. This should not be a surprise to anyone. FWIW Stephen's EPI was .706 last year. Gueye is .374 (he was .266 last year so he is playing better compared to last year) and Wright is .388. This is just the weakest spot on the team and why i think when Josh returns we will see small ball on a fairly regular basis. The good news is the negative here year over year is less than the positive at the PG position. if we could get one of the bigs to the .50 -.60 range then i think GT would be fine.
C - This is basically comparing Lammers to Lammers. His scoring is up slightly from last year while his rebounding is down slightly (likely due to injury). His assists are down relative to last year and his shooting is pretty consistent. While right now his EPI is lower than last year .968 vs 1.008, it was trending higher before his injury. My belief is that a 100% Ben this year will be better than a 100% Ben last year, but basically this is largely a push right now.
Comparing early in the season i would say PG is a big gain this year, PF is a significant loss, the center is largely a wash and the wings are a slight loss, but that is likely to change as Josh returns.
I'm actually pretty excited about our potential perimeter group next year. A rotation of Jose, Josh, Curtis, Devoe and Phillips may be our deepest, most talented group since the Jack, Bynum, Elder, Muhammad, Lewis group.
