Comparative Rankings, End of Year

[AE 87]

So, here's the end of year comparison of my Differential Points/Drive Ranking and three other end of year rankings.

As brief review, I calculate an offensive points/drive and defensive points/drive for games against power 5 opponents. I count only points scored from offensive (rushing or passing) TDs, which I count as 7pts regardless, and FGs. I do not count as drives those ending a half or in a safety.

I also only calculate ppd for teams who played more than 2 Pwr5 opponents, which explains why neither Navy nor Western Michigan made my rankings.

One take-away for me is that my stat does not like the SEC as much as the polls. It could be that the SEC is simply more competitive and better, but I'm not sure.

A hand wave look at the losses suffered by all the SEC-W teams under Bama show that they're not elite. We're talking about losses to UF and u[sic]ga who both got handled by ACC teams who didn't finish in the top 2 of their divisions. I just don't see evidence that the SEC under Alabama is that strong.

The second take-away is that the top 10 is B1G heavy, with both Mich and tOSU in the top 3 and PennSt and Wisc in top 10. It's possible that this reflects the B1G being weak over all and so inflating the top 4. I'm still playing with some ideas to tease-out a conference strength factor.

GT finished at #33, #24 in OffPPD and #40 in DefPPD. I will have more to say about these numberrs in a GT season review after our bowl game.

 

[Sideways]

So, here's the end of year comparison of my Differential Points/Drive Ranking and three other end of year rankings.

As brief review, I calculate an offensive points/drive and defensive points/drive for games against power 5 opponents. I count only points scored from offensive (rushing or passing) TDs, which I count as 7pts regardless, and FGs. I do not count as drives those ending a half or in a safety.

I also only calculate ppd for teams who played more than 2 Pwr5 opponents, which explains why neither Navy nor Western Michigan made my rankings.

View attachment 2078

One take-away for me is that my stat does not like the SEC as much as the polls. It could be that the SEC is simply more competitive and better, but I'm not sure.

A hand wave look at the losses suffered by all the SEC-W teams under Bama show that they're not elite. We're talking about losses to UF and u[sic]ga who both got handled by ACC teams who didn't finish in the top 2 of their divisions. I just don't see evidence that the SEC under Alabama is that strong.

The second take-away is that the top 10 is B1G heavy, with both Mich and tOSU in the top 3 and PennSt and Wisc in top 10. It's possible that this reflects the B1G being weak over all and so inflating the top 4. I'm still playing with some ideas to tease-out a conference strength factor.

Very interesting take on Alabama. I happen to disagree but we will find out. The thing that impresses me about Alabama is their defense. They are like a fire ant mound that has been kicked over.

 

[33jacket]

A huge takeaway for me is how good this metric is in identifying the top teams, while probably showing who the truly overrated and underrated teams are.

 

[iceeater1969]

Washington State seems like an outlier that could use inspection. maybe an interesting story .

 

[AE 87]

Washington State seems like an outlier that could use inspection. maybe an interesting story .

They started the season with two bad losses to Eastern Washington and Boise State by 3pts each. They then lost their last two games to Colorado and Washington but otherwise played pretty well. I think that if they were 10-2 with their only losses being those last two, they may have been ranked comparably to my stat.