College FB playoffs this year

[4shotB]

I rarely watch college FB outside of GT but imo, it doesn't appear (from just listening to people talk) to be that juggernaut team that is the odds on favorite to win it all like previous Clemson, Bama, Uga teams. Just for conversation's sake, who do you see as the most likely playoff winner this year? Is it Texas? Also, is Indiana really a serious contender for a natty???

 

[GTJackets]

Oregon

 

[JacketOff]

Indiana has played an absolute joke of a schedule, but they have dominated their games for the most part. Their game against Ohio State will give a better understanding of how good they actually are, as it’s the only game they’ll play all year against a team in the top half of the conference. Their 9 game conference slate includes 8 of the bottom 10 teams in the B1G ,which now houses 18 teams. Their non-conference games were 2 different 3-6 teams in FIU & Charlotte, and FCS Western Illinois. Just absolutely unreal scheduling luck. I’d bet most G5 teams play a tougher schedule than what Indiana has played this year, but to their credit they’ve won 10 games and lost 0. That’s hard to do even when you are playing weaker teams. It will not surprise me at all if an 11-1 Indiana team is passed up for a playoff spot by multiple 10-2 SEC teams.

Oregon is the pretty clear #1 team right now, but I’m not sure they’re the best team. I would say Texas is the best team, but they’ve played a fairly weak schedule as well. And the best team they played (Georgia) dominated them on their home turf. Alabama is still very much in the mix if Milroe stays healthy. The SEC could get very messy with tiebreakers determining who goes to the SECCG, but really missing the CCG and then hosting a playoff game might be the easier path anyway.

I think the natty will be won by somebody out of Oregon, Ohio State, Texas, and Alabama. Georgia and Notre Dame could also be relevant.

 

[4shotB]

Indiana has played an absolute joke of a schedule, but they have dominated their games for the most part. Their game against Ohio State will give a better understanding of how good they actually are, as it’s the only game they’ll play all year against a team in the top half of the conference. Their 9 game conference slate includes 8 of the bottom 10 teams in the B1G ,which now houses 18 teams. Their non-conference games were 2 different 3-6 teams in FIU & Charlotte, and FCS Western Illinois. Just absolutely unreal scheduling luck. I’d bet most G5 teams play a tougher schedule than what Indiana has played this year, but to their credit they’ve won 10 games and lost 0. That’s hard to do even when you are playing weaker teams. It will not surprise me at all if an 11-1 Indiana team is passed up for a playoff spot by multiple 10-2 SEC teams.

Oregon is the pretty clear #1 team right now, but I’m not sure they’re the best team. I would say Texas is the best team, but they’ve played a fairly weak schedule as well. And the best team they played (Georgia) dominated them on their home turf. Alabama is still very much in the mix if Milroe stays healthy. The SEC could get very messy with tiebreakers determining who goes to the SECCG, but really missing the CCG and then hosting a playoff game might be the easier path anyway.

I think the natty will be won by somebody out of Oregon, Ohio State, Texas, and Alabama. Georgia and Notre Dame could also be relevant.

As I said, I don't watch much FB outside of our games. From what little I have seen, both Ga. and ND seem way too pedestrian on offense to be NC teams based solely off of what I have seen in the past. I sure hope i am right bc of the 6 possible contenders you mentioned, these last two are ones that I would least like to see win it all.

 

[yeti92]

As I said, I don't watch much FB outside of our games. From what little I have seen, both Ga. and ND seem way too pedestrian on offense to be NC teams based solely off of what I have seen in the past. I sure hope i am right bc of the 6 possible contenders you mentioned, these last two are ones that I would least like to see win it all.

ND averages a little over 38 pts/game, not sure I'd call that pedestrian.

 

[4shotB]

ND averages a little over 38 pts/game, not sure I'd call that pedestrian.

Look at their schedule and their results. They do score a bunch of points against mid to poor teams (and 51 against a solid Navy team that had a bunch of TO's that day) that skew their average. Maybe pedestrian is harsh but they don't have the playmakers and athletes to score in bunches against playoff type teams. I think history will support this argument.

 

[CEB]

Look at their schedule and their results. They do score a bunch of points against mid to poor teams (and 51 against a solid Navy team that had a bunch of TO's that day) that skew their average. Maybe pedestrian is harsh but they don't have the playmakers and athletes to score in bunches against playoff type teams. I think history will support this argument.

ND is probably going to be the least impressive 1-loss team in the playoff.

I’m thinking IU gets exposed in a BIG way against tOSU. Oregon will be undefeated and tOSU will have 1 loss and hold tie breakers over IU and PSU for BIGCG
I agree @JacketOff … IU feels like the playoff “snub” this year assuming they get drilled by the one good team they’ve played…. But… theyll likely be a 1-loss BIG team, which is really hard to ignore. I also don’t see FIVE SEC teams going, no matter how much SEC jock sniffing there is.

As for SEC, Bama and uGA drew short straws on scheduling…. Not that I shed a tear for either of them. The rest of the “top” SEC teams have played weaker conference schedules. I don’t know how SEC will shake out but I feel like Texas /Bama / uGA are in CFP and two of them will land in the SECCG. That said, Tx lost to the best team they played and the second best team they play is still to come. Tenn controls their own destiny, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Bama and uGA face off again. Tennessee and OMiss could make 2-loss tie breakers interesting, but I don’t think either of them are among the 2-3 best teams in the conference. They may thread the needle though

All in all, I think the ACC and B12 get their champs only. ND and probably Army as G5 rep.
Oregon, tOSU, and likely PSU are in for BIG.
Bama, uGA, Tex and prob Tenn are in for SEC.
The final spot I think would go to a 1-loss IU over the other 2-loss options…. Unless BYU loses the B12 CG.

 

[JacketOff]

ND is probably going to be the least impressive 1-loss team in the playoff.

I’m thinking IU gets exposed in a BIG way against tOSU. Oregon will be undefeated and tOSU will have 1 loss and hold tie breakers over IU and PSU for BIGCG
I agree @JacketOff … IU feels like the playoff “snub” this year assuming they get drilled by the one good team they’ve played…. But… theyll likely be a 1-loss BIG team, which is really hard to ignore. I also don’t see FIVE SEC teams going, no matter how much SEC jock sniffing there is.

As for SEC, Bama and uGA drew short straws on scheduling…. Not that I shed a tear for either of them. The rest of the “top” SEC teams have played weaker conference schedules. I don’t know how SEC will shake out but I feel like Texas /Bama / uGA are in CFP and two of them will land in the SECCG. That said, Tx lost to the best team they played and the second best team they play is still to come. Tenn controls their own destiny, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Bama and uGA face off again. Tennessee and OMiss could make 2-loss tie breakers interesting, but I don’t think either of them are among the 2-3 best teams in the conference. They may thread the needle though

All in all, I think the ACC and B12 get their champs only. ND and probably Army as G5 rep.
Oregon, tOSU, and likely PSU are in for BIG.
Bama, uGA, Tex and prob Tenn are in for SEC.
The final spot I think would go to a 1-loss IU over the other 2-loss options…. Unless BYU loses the B12 CG.

It’s gonna be wild. I’ve been skeptical of the 12 team playoff and conference realignment. But honestly, they’ve mutually made each other more interesting. I still think a lot of the changes to college football are going to make it worse in the end, but this season is going to be a good proof of concept.

Regarding realignment, something is going to have to give with conference championship games. Having to go to multiple tie breakers to determine 1 or even both of the teams in CCG is silly. I’m in favor of dropping them altogether honestly. For teams in the SEC and B1G who are all but guaranteed to get more than 2 into the playoff, going to the CCG and losing tanks your chances. Not only do you have to play an extra game, the extra loss could knock you far enough down in the rankings you have to go on the road for the 1st round of the playoffs, or maybe even miss the playoffs altogether. Seems to me like missing your CCG and being the 5 seed is the easiest path to the natty. Likely to play the G5 winner at home, then you play the worst P4 conference champion to get to the national championship game.

The system definitely needs some work, but it’s helped create some entertaining storylines this year. It is better than knowing Georgia/Alabama, or Ohio State/Michigan is going to win the natty every year. That may still happen, but the road to get there is a lot better.

 

[CEB]

It’s gonna be wild. I’ve been skeptical of the 12 team playoff and conference realignment. But honestly, they’ve mutually made each other more interesting. I still think a lot of the changes to college football are going to make it worse in the end, but this season is going to be a good proof of concept.

Regarding realignment, something is going to have to give with conference championship games. Having to go to multiple tie breakers to determine 1 or even both of the teams in CCG is silly. I’m in favor of dropping them altogether honestly. For teams in the SEC and B1G who are all but guaranteed to get more than 2 into the playoff, going to the CCG and losing tanks your chances. Not only do you have to play an extra game, the extra loss could knock you far enough down in the rankings you have to go on the road for the 1st round of the playoffs, or maybe even miss the playoffs altogether. Seems to me like missing your CCG and being the 5 seed is the easiest path to the natty. Likely to play the G5 winner at home, then you play the worst P4 conference champion to get to the national championship game.

The system definitely needs some work, but it’s helped create some entertaining storylines this year. It is better than knowing Georgia/Alabama, or Ohio State/Michigan is going to win the natty every year. That may still happen, but the road to get there is a lot better.

As boring as it is to agree on a message board… I agree!

I feel the same about the conf championships. It will be interesting to see how conf championship losers are treated. It’s hard to think a champ game loser will get passed over for teams that don’t make the championship, but in all honesty there is nothing but downside for most participants.
It’s likely an elimination game for anyone not in the SEC / BIG and for the SEC / BIG, it’s another game in a long season that won’t change a whole lot except your chance for injuries or another loss. Sure, you can earn a bye, but if you don’t play a conf championship, you get a “bye” anyway.

Ultimately, I see them going away in favor of a 16 team field.

 

[stinger78]

As boring as it is to agree on a message board… I agree!

I feel the same about the conf championships. It will be interesting to see how conf championship losers are treated. It’s hard to think a champ game loser will get passed over for teams that don’t make the championship, but in all honesty there is nothing but downside for most participants.
It’s likely an elimination game for anyone not in the SEC / BIG and for the SEC / BIG, it’s another game in a long season that won’t change a whole lot except your chance for injuries or another loss. Sure, you can earn a bye, but if you don’t play a conf championship, you get a “bye” anyway.

Ultimately, I see them going away in favor of a 16 team field.

 

[CEB]

Yup… Prozac in text form.
Sorry. From now on I’ll stick to irresponsible / inflammatory hot takes and sprinkle in some sarcasm and silly gifs.