Clemson Preview -- Pts/Drive

[Whiskey_Clear]

Here's how i think Clemson will do this season

Georgia Tech W
Texas A&M L
@Syracuse W
Charlotte W
@North Carolina W
FSU W
@Louisville W
Boston College W
Wofford W
@NCSU W
Wake Forest W
@South Carolina W

ACC Championship Game: Clemson beats Virginia

Orange Bowl: Clemson beats Oklahoma

National Championship Game: Clemson beats Alabama

I think they are far more likely to get caught napping and drop a conference game than lose to AnM. They will be up for that one.

 

[Whiskey_Clear]

I think Texas A&M will be 10-2 and in the Top 10 while i think Syracuse goes 9-3 and will be around #15 in the Top 25.

I also think cuse was a one hit wonder last year and will fall back again this year.

My ACC sleeper is UVA so long as their QB stays healthy.

 

[33jacket]

i think both cuse and a&m are 7-8 win teams; not 10 etc

 

[YellowJacketFan2018]

I also think cuse was a one hit wonder last year and will fall back again this year.

My ACC sleeper is UVA so long as their QB stays healthy.

Yeah i think Virginia goes 10-2 and plays Clemson in the ACCCG

 

[Whiskey_Clear]

Yeah i think Virginia goes 10-2 and plays Clemson in the ACCCG

I probably should have used the term “my favorite” instead of “my sleeper.” I give them the pre-season nod for the coastal.

 

[YellowJacketFan2018]

I probably should have used the term “my favorite” instead of “my sleeper.” I give them the pre-season nod for the coastal.

I could see Virginia in the Orange Bowl playing Florida

 

[TooTall]

http://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/27342304/how-dabo-built-clemson-monster#!

It took Dabo a few years, but I see some similarities...Time will tell

 

[TooTall]

The quote that says it all "After the game (embarrassing 70-33 Orange bowl loss) , Dabo was called into (AD) Phillips' office and expected to get fired. Instead, Phillips asked, "What do you need from me to turn things around?"

The AD and higher ups believed in Dabo's vision and got behind him 100%. That's the key. Will it happen here?

 

[boger2337]

The quote that says it all "After the game (embarrassing 70-33 Orange bowl loss) , Dabo was called into (AD) Phillips' office and expected to get fired. Instead, Phillips asked, "What do you need from me to turn things around?"

The AD and higher ups believed in Dabo's vision and got behind him 100%. That's the key. Will it happen here?

All about $$$$$$$$$$$ hopefully Todd and the new President understand that.

 

[stech81]

http://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/27342304/how-dabo-built-clemson-monster#!

It took Dabo a few years, but I see some similarities...Time will tell

His only bad year was his 2nd at 6-6 after that I don't remember less than 10 wins in any season and I think his 1st year he was 9-5. The difference will be can he find the right coordinators and assistant coaches ? With our money ?

 

[tmhunter52]

Its easy - dress nice, drink some Whiskey clear, and solve the simultaneous equations.

I am still haunted by that Sigma...

 

[g0lftime]

Link?

I think it was one of those Google news things. It was from an interview with a clemson DB.

 

[ncjacket79]

You left out - The last time we beat Clemson w had 2 pic 6. !!

But the clemson Ol are seniors and our dl has zip experience. Clemson has great qb with super wr s and a good rb so they can move the ball at will against us unless cgc gets chaotic AND LUCKY.

Good write up - i knew they were good last year ( when our ol could not move their dl), but your numbers show they were great team.

I’ve actually heard some radio debate in whether they were one is the best college teams of all time last year. Seems over the top to me but when you look Sr the numbers maybe it’s not so far-fetched.

 

[iceeater1969]

I’ve actually heard some radio debate in whether they were one is the best college teams of all time last year. Seems over the top to me but when you look Sr the numbers maybe it’s not so far-fetched.

Red shirt sr dl men that stayed instead of going to nfl. Where have u seen that? Those guys were freakish.

I am pretty proud of our 2019 redshirt sr class. Not NFL but definitely heat of battle and make every body better 12 th man types.
We could suprise.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Red shirt sr dl men that stayed instead of going to nfl. Where have u seen that? Those guys were freakish.

Imagine the amount of money that took.

 

[vamosjackets]

The difference will be can he find the right coordinators and assistant coaches ? With our money ?

That's it.

 

[LongforDodd]

I also think cuse was a one hit wonder last year and will fall back again this year.

My ACC sleeper is UVA so long as their QB stays healthy.

That QB of Syracuse’s was a difference maker for them. They ought to drop back a fair amount.

 

[jgtengineer]

Our issue vs clemson in 2017 was an inability to pass the football. There were openings a good amount of them but we just hit no one.

Same in 2016. Venables was daring us to throw. This year I have no idea its a new offense we might catch em a littlenit being the first game and him having no real film on it.

 

[AE 87]

Ok, for those who don't know, I calculate a Pts/Drive stat for offense and defense. It's based on 7pts for every scrimmage (rushing or passing) TD scored for offense or allowed for defense. So, special-teams and turnover scores as well as safeties are not counted. Obviously, made FG's count 3. Drives are every possession which ends with a TD, FG attempt, punt, failed fourth-down, or lost turnover. So, safeties and end-of-half possessions don't count as drives (unless there's a score as time expires).

Here are the game by game pts/drive for Clemson in 2018:

View attachment 6493

While I didn't calculate end of year PPDvPwr5 for all of Div 1 last year, Clemson's PPDvPwr5 averages are obviously incredible. Those 3.25 offense and 1.06 defense ppd stats against pwr5 for the season are each typically top 5 averages. After NC State, these averages go to 3.44 and 0.96, resulting in an average differential of 2.48. An average differential of 1.00 is typically top 10, IIRC.

For those who act as if Duke is still Duke, you might want to see how Clemson's O performed against them compared to their average against Pwr5 opponents last year.

If you look at our performance against Clemson, then, it appears that they scored 18% better against our defense than their average, and we scored 65% better against them than they allowed on average. Obviously, that didn't mean much when they were so good.

I suspect that the general wisdom which ranks us so low this year is that our D was limited by talent and our O was benefited by scheme. With that assumption, we are not projected to be better on either side of the ball.

However, I think that we've heard a lot to suggest that our D was limited by coaching (let's just leave it at that), and that Collins/Thatcher have had a lot of success producing quality D's. So, I'm looking for decent improvement on D, even in our first game. I do think that our our O was benefited by scheme, but I don't think our talent is that bad. I'm hoping our offensive efficiency only drops off a bit.

Clemson's PPD averages are just insane. I think it will again take them some time to get rolling on both offense (and I know they started last season with 2QBs) and defense (losing starters in front 7, but they played a lot of guys). So, I'm going to guestimate that CU's baseline O is 2.90 PPDvPwr5 and D is 1.25 PPDvPwr5.

So, if our D is 20% better than average rather than 18% worse, then we'll hold them to ~2.4 ppd. If our O is only 20% better than average rather than 65%, then we'll score 1.5 ppd.

As a result, if we each have 14 drives, then the final score would be CU 34 - GT 21. However, we also get a Juanyeh Thomas KR score and also somehow limit them to only 13 drives because of the end of half end of game, so that makes it 31-28. On top of that, we go for 2 after all four TD's and win 32-31.

Okay, well, I was overly optimistic about our team (obviously). Last year, they scored 3.25 ppd and allowed 1.06 ppd against pwr5 competition. Against the last 8 opponents, it was 3.44 and 0.96.

Tonight, they scored 3.5 ppd against us and allowed 1.0 ppd. So, we seem to be just average on both O and D.

Now, obviously, our D looked pretty good in the first quarter/half, apart from defending the short-field after turnovers. So, the stats have to be put into context.

 

[jgtengineer]

Our issue vs clemson in 2017 was an inability to pass the football. There were openings a good amount of them but we just hit no one.

Same in 2016. Venables was daring us to throw. This year I have no idea its a new offense we might catch em a littlenit being the first game and him having no real film on it.

I was wrong.