CFP thoughts

[orientalnc]

We are 1/3 through the 2024 football schedule. For the Top 25, here are the games remaining against ranked teams:

SEC
1-Texas - They have OU, uga, and A&M left. The rest are unranked. OU and A&M will be very emotional games for both teams. Don't let rankings mess with your head.
2-uga - Bama, Texas, Ole Miss, and Tennessee. All in the current top ten. They need to play better by a good bit to win half those games.
4-Bama - uga, Tenn, LSU, Missouri, and OU. Plus they have a rivalry game at home against Auburn.
5-Tennessee - Bama @ home & uga on the road.
6-Ole Miss - LSU, OU, uga. For the younger fonts, the LSU game is a huge rivalry game for both teams.
11-Missouri - A&M, Bama, OU
14-LSU - Ole Miss, A&M, Bama, OU. They already have one loss.
21-Okla - Texas, Ole Miss, Missouri, Bama, LSU. They already have one loss.
24-A&M - Missouri, LSU, Texas. They already have one loss.

There are 16 games between these teams. They already have three cumulative losses, so 19 losses (assuming no upsets) to spread around.

B1G
3-tOSU - Oregon, PSU, Mich
8-Oregon - tOSU, Illinois, Mich
9-Penn St - Illinois, USC, tOSU
12-Michigan -Illinois, Oregon, tOSU. They already have one loss.
13-USC - PSU, ND. They already have one loss.
19-Illinois - PSU, Mich, Oregon

B12
10-Utah - BYU, Iowa St
18-Iowa St - Utah, KSU
20-Okla St -KSU, BYU. They already have one loss.
22-BYU - OSU, Utah
23-Kansas St -Iowa St, OSU. They already have one loss.

ACC
7-Miami - Louisville
15-Louisville - ND, Miami, Clemson
17-Clemson - Louisville. They already have one loss.

Independent
16-Notre Dame - Louisville, USC. They already have one loss.

G5
25-Boise St - Does not play another P4 team. They already have one loss.

 

[Root4GT]

We are 1/3 through the 2024 football schedule. For the Top 25, here are the games remaining against ranked teams:

SEC
1-Texas - They have OU, uga, and A&M left. The rest are unranked. OU and A&M will be very emotional games for both teams. Don't let rankings mess with your head.
2-uga - Bama, Texas, Ole Miss, and Tennessee. All in the current top ten. They need to play better by a good bit to win half those games.
4-Bama - uga, Tenn, LSU, Missouri, and OU. Plus they have a rivalry game at home against Auburn.
5-Tennessee - Bama @ home & uga on the road.
6-Ole Miss - LSU, OU, uga. For the younger fonts, the LSU game is a huge rivalry game for both teams.
11-Missouri - A&M, Bama, OU
14-LSU - Ole Miss, A&M, Bama, OU. They already have one loss.
21-Okla - Texas, Ole Miss, Missouri, Bama, LSU. They already have one loss.
24-A&M - Missouri, LSU, Texas. They already have one loss.

There are 16 games between these teams. They already have three cumulative losses, so 19 losses (assuming no upsets) to spread around.

B1G
3-tOSU - Oregon, PSU, Mich
8-Oregon - tOSU, Illinois, Mich
9-Penn St - Illinois, USC, tOSU
12-Michigan -Illinois, Oregon, tOSU. They already have one loss.
13-USC - PSU, ND. They already have one loss.
19-Illinois - PSU, Mich, Oregon

B12
10-Utah - BYU, Iowa St
18-Iowa St - Utah, KSU
20-Okla St -KSU, BYU. They already have one loss.
22-BYU - OSU, Utah
23-Kansas St -Iowa St, OSU. They already have one loss.

ACC
7-Miami - Louisville
15-Louisville - ND, Miami, Clemson
17-Clemson - Louisville. They already have one loss.

Independent
16-Notre Dame - Louisville, USC. They already have one loss.

G5
25-Boise St - Does not play another P4 team. They already have one loss.

At this point I would guess Miami vs Clemson in the ACC Championship game. If Clemson wins out but loses that game they have a very good shot at the CFP. Of course their past 2 games could be a mirage.

 

[orientalnc]

ACC
7-Miami - Louisville
15-Louisville - ND, Miami, Clemson
17-Clemson - Louisville. They already have one loss.

With the caveat that upsets happen in the ACC, I can see the Canes winning out and playing Clemson, who can also win out. Or, UL could be the spoiler here that keeps Clemson or Miami from the playoffs, but they could make it themselves with a wins over ND and one of those two. As good as they looked beating NC State, Clemson really needs to win out.

SEC
1-Texas - They have OU, uga, and A&M left. The rest are unranked. OU and A&M will be very emotional games for both teams. Don't let rankings mess with your head.
2-uga - Bama, Texas, Ole Miss, and Tennessee. All in the current top ten. They need to play better by a good bit to win half those games.
4-Bama - uga, Tenn, LSU, Missouri, and OU. Plus they have a rivalry game at home against Auburn.
5-Tennessee - Bama @ home & uga on the road.
6-Ole Miss - LSU, OU, uga. For the younger fonts, the LSU game is a huge rivalry game for both teams.
11-Missouri - A&M, Bama, OU
14-LSU - Ole Miss, A&M, Bama, OU. They already have one loss.
21-Okla - Texas, Ole Miss, Missouri, Bama, LSU. They already have one loss.
24-A&M - Missouri, LSU, Texas. They already have one loss.

I don't see uga winning three of the games against Bama, Texas, Ole Miss, Tennessee. Could they lose three? I think Tennessee needs to beat either Bama or uga, but close losses could be all they need. Bama & Texas could win out and be undefeated. Ole Miss & Missouri have really easy schedules and could be one loss teams. So, Bama, Texas, Tennessee, and Ole Miss seem likely for the CFP. uga could be the 5th team with two losses. It depends.

B1G
3-tOSU - Oregon, PSU, Mich
8-Oregon - tOSU, Illinois, Mich
9-Penn St - Illinois, USC, tOSU
12-Michigan -Illinois, Oregon, tOSU. They already have one loss.
13-USC - PSU, ND. They already have one loss.
19-Illinois - PSU, Mich, Oregon

USC did not look good this weekend, but they could win out. tOSU, Oregon, Michigan, and PSU need to split their games and give the B1G 4 teams. That could rob uga, so it's my favorite.

B12
10-Utah - BYU, Iowa St
18-Iowa St - Utah, KSU
20-Okla St -KSU, BYU. They already have one loss.
22-BYU - OSU, Utah
23-Kansas St -Iowa St, OSU. They already have one loss.

Utah, unless they crash. I don't see any of the rest climbing high enough unless Iowa St or BYU shows a lot more than they have so far.

Independent
16-Notre Dame - Louisville, USC. They already have one loss.

This one is interesting. If ND wins out they should be in. But, if they win out and don't make it, this might be the last straw for their independence. Their schedule is so weak they really don't have any room to lose again.

So, we will have 5 conference champs in the CFP, maybe one more each from the ACC and B12, 2 or 3 from the B1G, ND (?), and 4 or 5 more from the SEC. This is where it gets dicey for every one not in the SEC or B1G. There only 12 slots and the SEC thinks 8 of them belong to them. And the other 4 belong to the B1G.

 

[roadkill]

The current top 5 SEC teams face each other a lot in the regular season, starting next weekend. Even without upsets, there will be some shakeups in the rankings. I suspect some of the SEC's highly ranked teams are there because the AP thinks they are really good, but don't have enough data to know just how good.

 

[SOWEGA Jacket]

We are almost to the point where you will see the intentional fiddling of the polls. Call me a conspiracy guy if you want, but I’ve been watching this garbage for 35 plus years since our 1990 season when I saw how easy it was to raise the Irish and hold GT down.

All these games between the big boys, will in the end, result in very little change in the polls. The loser will fall very little while the winner will move up a little depending on where they were. For example, the loser of Bama/UGA will fall very little. Meanwhile, other conferences will fall a lot. ND will not get in the playoff after that loss because if they put them in that means 1 of the 5 SEC teams will be left out and there is no way they will put in a team that lost to NIU in while leaving out a team that lost to legit teams.

And as you see already, and as I predicted months ago, the ACC and “other” teams will stay ranked outside the top 13 except for a placeholder for our Champion,. The placeholder currently is Miami at #7. And shocking, ND, Louisville, and Clemson are all in that 15-18 range where they are no threat to take money from the SEC and BIG.

 

[stinger 1957]

Yep, IMO it's all an SEC Big 10 deal from now on, they have complete control from a conference standpoint but behind it all the networks are really running the whole show.

 

[Root4GT]

We are almost to the point where you will see the intentional fiddling of the polls. Call me a conspiracy guy if you want, but I’ve been watching this garbage for 35 plus years since our 1990 season when I saw how easy it was to raise the Irish and hold GT down.

All these games between the big boys, will in the end, result in very little change in the polls. The loser will fall very little while the winner will move up a little depending on where they were. For example, the loser of Bama/UGA will fall very little. Meanwhile, other conferences will fall a lot. ND will not get in the playoff after that loss because if they put them in that means 1 of the 5 SEC teams will be left out and there is no way they will put in a team that lost to NIU in while leaving out a team that lost to legit teams.

And as you see already, and as I predicted months ago, the ACC and “other” teams will stay ranked outside the top 13 except for a placeholder for our Champion,. The placeholder currently is Miami at #7. And shocking, ND, Louisville, and Clemson are all in that 15-18 range where they are no threat to take money from the SEC and BIG.

So a ND home loss to Northern Illinois is equal to a loss for a game between Alabama and Georgia? LOL Georgia crushed Clemson and Alabama went to Wisconsin and buried them. Until non conference teams start beating the SEC Big Boys in a dominant manner it is hard to argue with moving either Bama or UGA down much unless one loses by 30+ points. Clemson is ranked around 15 after losing by 31 to Georgia. If Miami keeps winning handily they will make the Top 4.There is no one left on Miami's schedule that "should" be at their level. Same is true for Clemson. Now both could lose as double digit favorites. The are the ACC's best hope for the CFP. Louisville "could" but they don't seem to be on the same talent level as either Miami or Clemson.

 

[SOWEGA Jacket]

What are you trying to say. It’s doesn’t make sense and why did you quote me? ND’s lost was indeed brutal and will keep them out. UGA could get in with 3 losses. The ACC champ is in so it doesn’t matter where they are ranked. I agree that the ACC rep will be either Miami or Clemson. My money is on Clemson. I guess you quoted me to say the polls are correct. I don’t disagree with the poll today. But when Ole Miss or Bama get boat raced one game they won’t fall off the map like Clemson did. Just watch.