CFP Selections

[Randy Carson]

It's my understanding that the 12 teams qualifying for the CFP will include:

4 - Power Four Conference Champions (SMU, Oregon, Arizona St, Texas)
1 - Highest-Rated from the Group of Five Champions (Boise St)
7 - Highest-Rated At-Large Teams (OSU, Notre Dame, UGA, Tenn, Miami, Penn St, Indiana)

If that's correct, I'm looking beyond the conference championships and going with:

ACC (2): SMU, Miami
B1G (4): Oregon, OSU, Penn St., Indiana
B12 (1): Arizona St
SEC: Texas, UGA, Tenn
G5: Boise St
At Large: Notre Dame

The wrinkles: the selection committee could go with Bama over Indiana, but with two ugly losses (Vandy, OK), I think that would be a mistake driven by TV ratings more than on field results. Alternatively, they could choose USC(e) over Indiana after the Gamecocks knocked Clemson out of contention today. If Miami loses to Syracuse today, then the ACC loses it's second invite.

Thoughts?

 

[Randy Carson]

Okay, Miami lost its 2nd game of the season to Syracuse, and Clemson already has three losses. I see SMU beating Clemson in the ACC title game, which would be Clemson's fourth loss on the season.

Does a two-loss Miami team get in? If not, I don't know how the ACC gets a 2nd entry ahead of the SEC.

Thoughts?

 

[Techwood Relict]

I think Miami might still be in. Ward has star power and will finish probably top two on the Heisman voting. That's hard to pass on for eyeballs and dollars which we know means more to the committee than anything.

 

[wrmathis]

It's my understanding that the 12 teams qualifying for the CFP will include:

4 - Power Four Conference Champions (SMU, Oregon, Arizona St, Texas)
1 - Highest-Rated from the Group of Five Champions (Boise St)
7 - Highest-Rated At-Large Teams (OSU, Notre Dame, UGA, Tenn, Miami, Penn St, Indiana)

If that's correct, I'm looking beyond the conference championships and going with:

ACC (2): SMU, Miami
B1G (4): Oregon, OSU, Penn St., Indiana
B12 (1): Arizona St
SEC: Texas, UGA, Tenn
G5: Boise St
At Large: Notre Dame

The wrinkles: the selection committee could go with Bama over Indiana, but with two ugly losses (Vandy, OK), I think that would be a mistake driven by TV ratings more than on field results. Alternatively, they could choose USC(e) over Indiana after the Gamecocks knocked Clemson out of contention today. If Miami loses to Syracuse today, then the ACC loses it's second invite.

Thoughts?

it's not the Power 4 champions, its the 4 highest ranked champions. That's why some where saying that a second G5 team could get in with Boise, if they didn't **** the bed. like Tulane just did. at least that's my understanding.

I think Miami might still be in. Ward has star power and will finish probably top two on the Heisman voting. That's hard to pass on for eyeballs and dollars which we know means more to the committee than anything.

Cam ward probably going to finish 3rd behind Hunter and Jeanty.

 

[Techwood Relict]

Jeanty is a heck of a back. I just think he finishes a close third behind Travis and Cam.

 

[forensicbuzz]

I think the CFP should be chosen before conference championship games. That game should be solely to see which team gets the first round bye (or just add another 4 teams and get rid of the bye).

 

[GTJackets]

I think the CFP should be chosen before conference championship games. That game should be solely to see which team gets the first round bye (or just add another 4 teams and get rid of the bye).

Hard to do that though if one of the criteria is four conference champs. That basically renders the SECCG meaningless (it just means more?). There is next to no chance either Tx or Ga get left out of the CFP. Otherwise you reward Tn for not making the SECCG.

This assumes that Tx continues to own A&M. It's currently 13-0 at the half.

 

[forensicbuzz]

Hard to do that though if one of the criteria is four conference champs. That basically renders the SECCG meaningless (it just means more?). There is next to no chance either Tx or Ga get left out of the CFP. Otherwise you reward Tn for not making the SECCG.

This assumes that Tx continues to own A&M. It's currently 13-0 at the half.

That’s why I think the field should be chosen before the championship games. Playing in the league championship should not be a penalty.

On another note, is tOSU stronger than Miami? Both are 10-2. tOSU has both a better win and a worse loss. It‘s an interesting discussion. Why is a 10-2 Tennessee above a 10-2 Miami?

Does a 11-2 conference loser (SMU) go in before a 10-3 uga conference loser? How about before a 10-2 tOSU or 10-2 Tennessee? What about before a 11-1 Indiana?

I have a feeling there are going to be a whole bunch of very unhappy people when they stack the CFP for TV instead of on merit. An 11-1 Indiana deserves to be in before a 10-3 uga.

 

[GTJackets]

That’s why I think the field should be chosen before the championship games. Playing in the league championship should not be a penalty.

Got ya. So the actual conference CGs should be meaningless regarding the playoff and the champ should be determined by actual games played in the regular season (using tiebreakers as needed). I could get behind that.

Does a 11-2 conference loser (SMU) go in before a 10-3 uga conference loser? How about before a 10-2 tOSU or 10-2 Tennessee? What about before a 11-1 Indiana?

I think we all know the answer to this though. If SMU loses to 10-3 Clemson, SMU gets punished by having to give their spot to an undeserving Clemson. 10-3 uga gets in because they lost a rematch to Tx. You can't leave them out because they beat Tx earlier this season. And you can't leave out a 2-loss SEC team while including 3-loss uga, so Tn has to get in as well (even though they probably would have 3 losses if they had to play the SECCG). tOSU gets in because they almost beat the only remaining undefeated losing by only 1 to Oregon and then lost their rivalry game. Those games are essentially toss-ups anyway. Indiana gets left out in favor of tOSU because they didn't play anyone else and didn't win their conference.

Does that sound about right? Ignore any conflicting or circular logic that may be applied. Maybe I should have a seat on the committee.

 

[yeti92]

They've intentionally made the qualifications as muddy as possible so they can get in whoever they want with whatever justification necessary to fit that team.

If they are going to say a team can't fall out that would have made the playoff for playing in and losing their conference championship, then going by the AP Poll (which I know is not the cfp ranking), these teams are in no matter what happens next week:

1. Oregon
2. Texas
3. Penn State
4. Notre Dame
5. Georgia
8. SMU
10. Boise State
12. Arizona State

3 of these teams will play non-top 12 opponents for their championship. Will that "rule" still apply to them? SEC and Big 10 teams could theoretically sit their starters for their championship and accept the loss that doesn't matter to be fresher for the CFP, but SMU, Boise State, and ASU are not as likely to get that priviledge. Non-top 12 opponents who could steal a spot are:

#16 Iowa State
#18 Clemson
#19 UNLV

The next G5 conference's best 2 teams are in the AAC at #24&25, so I don't think they can jump anyone for the CFP.

These teams are currently in, but if we are following the "can't fall out" rule equally, they could get bumped by a winner of a non-top 12 conference champ:

6. Tennessee
7. Ohio State
9. Indiana
11. Alabama

Alabama is the first out, Indiana 2nd, and OSU 3rd if all of Clemson, ISU, and UNLV win. Tennessee should actually be safe from having one of those three take their spot since all Big 10 and SEC opponents are automatic qualifiers.

South Carolina, Miami, Ole Miss, BYU, etc are eliminated as they have no way to improve position.

Now, I believe there is almost zero chance they are going to leave all of Ohio State, Indiana, and Alabama out. OSU and Bama have massive brand power, and Indiana went 11-1 with their only loss to OSU.

If they break the "rule", Arizona State will almost certainly get dropped if they lose to Iowa State, so Ohio State is probably safe. Boise State also probably gets dropped if they lose to UNLV, saving Indiana. If SMU loses in a nailbiter, they may just barely stay in. If Clemson blows them out, I think the committee goes all in for Bama.

 

[gtbeak]

There are 5 conference champions locked in, and those will be (in alphabetical order) the ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Mountain West, and SEC champs.

There will be 7 at-large bids. IMO, the Big 10 is a lock to get 3 (CCG loser, Ohio St, Indiana), the SEC is a lock for 2 (CCG loser & Tennessee), and Notre Dame is a lock for 1. That leaves 1 spot. In contention for this last spot is SMU if they lose to Clemson, Alabama (unless South Carolina jumps them on Tuesday, but I doubt that will happen), the Big 12 CCG loser, Boise St if they lose their CCG, and Miami if SMU wins the ACC. IMO SMU should be in regardless, so if they lose to Clemson they should get the #7 at large (IMO). If SMU beats Clemson, then the last at-large will likely be Alabama, but the Big 12 CCG loser, Boise St (if they lose the MWC championship), and Miami would be in consideration. My guess is that this last spot would go to Alabama if SMU beats Clemson.

In summary, as I see it, the Big 10 and SEC championship games are for CFP seeding. The ACC game is important to SMU, Clemson, and Alabama. The Big 12 and Mountain West games are essentially play-in games. Miami is out, as are Ole Miss and Missouri.

 

[stinger78]

That’s why I think the field should be chosen before the championship games. Playing in the league championship should not be a penalty.

On another note, is tOSU stronger than Miami? Both are 10-2. tOSU has both a better win and a worse loss. It‘s an interesting discussion. Why is a 10-2 Tennessee above a 10-2 Miami?

Does a 11-2 conference loser (SMU) go in before a 10-3 uga conference loser? How about before a 10-2 tOSU or 10-2 Tennessee? What about before a 11-1 Indiana?

I have a feeling there are going to be a whole bunch of very unhappy people when they stack the CFP for TV instead of on merit. An 11-1 Indiana deserves to be in before a 10-3 uga.

This is why that paragon of virtue known as The Committee is established. To hear from the Oracle and make their choice. We should all be happy they exist to guide us through this complex and compelling moment.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

This is why that paragon of virtue known as The Committee is established. To hear from the Oracle and make their choice. We should all be happy they exist to guide us through this complex and compelling moment.

I fully endorse your sarcasm.

 

[forensicbuzz]

This is why that paragon of virtue known as The Committee is established. To hear from the Oracle and make their choice. We should all be happy they exist to guide us through this complex and compelling moment.

You mean the Oracle Paul Sankey? We need a new soothsayer.

 

[Thwg777]

From a betting market perspective, the following appear to be hard facts (no particular order):

(4) Big 10 teams: Ohio State, Penn State, Indiana and Oregon

(1) Notre Dame

(1) G5 team (UNLV or Boise)

(1) Big 12 team (Iowa St or Arizona State)

(3.5) SEC teams: Texas and Tennessee are locks. The dwags are likely. Bama is on the fence. USCe is on life support.

(1.5) ACC teams: ACC winner and potentially SMU if Clemson beats them close. Miami is on life support.

Over / under for 3.5 SEC teams indicates an 80% chance, it’ll be over 3.5 SEC teams.

As I suspected, the ACC, like the Big 12 and G5 is relegated to get just the conference champ in.

 

[Thwg777]

From a betting market perspective, the following appear to be hard facts (no particular order):

(4) Big 10 teams: Ohio State, Penn State, Indiana and Oregon

(1) Notre Dame

(1) G5 team (UNLV or Boise)

(1) Big 12 team (Iowa St or Arizona State)

(3.5) SEC teams: Texas and Tennessee are locks. The dwags are likely. Bama is on the fence. USCe is on life support.

(1.5) ACC teams: ACC winner and potentially SMU if Clemson beats them close. Miami is on life support.

Over / under for 3.5 SEC teams indicates an 80% chance, it’ll be over 3.5 SEC teams.

As I suspected, the ACC, like the Big 12 and G5 is relegated to get just the conference champ in.

The CFP unveiling at 1900 went in perfect alignment with the betting market.

I think the only path for two ACC teams is Clempson narrowly defeating SMU.

Miami is dead.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

Strange to me that conventional wisdom says Miami is out of it but Bama still has a chance. Strange because Bama’s losses were worse than Miami’s.

Also, since uga was gifted a win by the refs over Tech are they still in the playoffs even if Texas beats them? It’s almost like somebody decided at the beginning of the year that uga was going to be in no matter what.

 

[yeti92]

It's wild to me that anyone can watch the CFP selection which is so obviously rigged and not think a certain conference's refs would try to influence the outcome of a game.

 

[Thwg777]

Strange to me that conventional wisdom says Miami is out of it but Bama still has a chance. Strange because Bama’s losses were worse than Miami’s.

Also, since uga was gifted a win by the refs over Tech are they still in the playoffs even if Texas beats them? It’s almost like somebody decided at the beginning of the year that uga was going to be in no matter what.

Pretty much. The $EC had to ensure that the dwags won at all cost. Let’s not forget that this was Friday so Saturday’s outcomes were not known yet.

Had the GT won, obviously the dwags would be weakened and clearly out if they lost the SECCG. Additionally, Alabama would be weakened since their signature win wouldn’t be as strong. The $EC was starring down the barrel of potentially just two teams in (Texas and Tennessee) and took matters into their own hands.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

Pretty much. The $EC had to ensure that the dwags won at all cost. Let’s not forget that this was Friday so Saturday’s outcomes were not known yet.

Had the GT won, obviously the dwags would be weakened and clearly out if they lost the SECCG. Additionally, Alabama would be weakened since their signature win wouldn’t be as strong. The $EC was starring down the barrel of potentially just two teams in (Texas and Tennessee) and took matters into their own hands.

I notice in my news feed that national media is starting to report “a controversy” with the selection committee. Do tell.