CFP Expansion

[billga99]

I really don't think you could put a 2 loss Bama team over Cincinnati (obviously if they are undefeated). I agree head to head Bama wins 9 out of 10. But the committee really needs to give serious consideration to a Group of 5 team and Cinci is the best possibility since they did beat Notre Dame who is now ranked 6th. The issue really is if Bama beats UGA, then what happens. Michigan gets in if they win for sure. Then I think it comes down to Oklahoma St. or Cinci (assuming Ok. St. beats Baylor). That becomes a very tough decision. The chaos starts if Ok. State loses (or Michigan or Cincinnati), do we really want a 1 loss Notre Dame team to get smoked in the playoffs again? Particularly with Kelly's departure. Or does a 2 loss Bama team get in under that scenario (vs. a 1 loss Notre Dame).

In terms of the future, I think 8 is the right number and I think the alliance may play a big part in that. 12 teams feeds into the SEC getting 3 or 4 (or more) teams each year. I would do P5 champs automatic, best Group of 5 if they are in the Top 10 and 2 or 3 wildcards (depending on Group of 5 best team).

 

[SOWEGA Jacket]

Here’s where we would be today with a 12 team playoff -

1- UGA - bye
2- Michigan - bye
3- Bama - bye
4 -Cincy - bye

BYU at Okie State
Mich St at ND
Oregon at Ohio State
Baylor at Ole Miss

Those would be awesome 1st round games with the 2nd round being even better. And the dreaded SEC would have a whopping 3 teams. the BIG would have 3, the PAC would have 1, the 12 would have 2, West would have 1, independent would have 1, and G5 would have 1. Seems pretty reasonable for this year. ACC left out because we suck.

Expand it further and it gets even better with more fanbases involved with huge home crowds and all kinds of never before seen matchups. It’s coming and will be awesome. Imagine the day GT hosts Michigan at Bobby Dodd for a 1st or 2nd round playoff game. Or GT traveling to Ohio State in late December. Or the swamp. It’s gonna be a blast in another decade or so.

 

[stech81]

Imagine the day GT hosts Michigan at Bobby Dodd for a 1st or 2nd round playoff game. Or GT traveling to Ohio State in late December. Or the swamp. It’s gonna be a blast in another decade or so.

But who will be our coach ?

 

[augustabuzz]

I disagree. I think the NCAA is in the background pulling strings. The ADs on the committee represent the schools and only the schools? Conferences are involved and the NCAA, as a whole are involved. I'm pretty sure that the NCAA gets part of the money made. So anyone connected monetary wise has a say.. NCAA, ESPN, SEC, ACC, the list goes on. When money is involved, things get a lot more messier. That's where I'm going with that.

The CFP is owned by the P5 conferences and not the NCAA.

 

[ibeattetris]

Their out of conf(including us) was a joke - with the exception of Clemson. Their conf schedule is nearly hand picking the worst teams in the SEC. This Saturday will be interesting, unless the Bama team that played Auburn shows up.

What top 10 CFP team had an OOC that wasn't a joke?
OOC are scheduled multiple years out in advance apart from yearly rivals.

ole miss played no one good ooc (
bama had a bad miami
uga had a down year clemson (who still ended 9-3)
ok st toughest ooc was boise
michigan played no one good ooc
nd is only ooc
cinci at least played ND (but in conference weak)
oregon and osu played each other at least
baylor played byu

The reality is most top teams have 0-1 ooc match up worth anything.

Using sagarin. All of the top 10 teams have only 1 game against other top 10 teams.

Of the top 10 teams, only 3 (Alabama, OSU, Ole Miss) have 6 games against top 30.

College football team ratings 2021 - Jeff Sagarin Ratings

sagarin.usatoday.com

Overall, uga schedule according to sagarin is rank 50, but other teams with schedules in the 40-60 range are not putting up the same offensive numbers uga is. I think OSU would have soundly beat this year's uga team, but sadly osu choked against a really good michigan team. I think uga matches up much better against michigan.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

What top 10 CFP team had an OOC that wasn't a joke?
OOC are scheduled multiple years out in advance apart from yearly rivals.

ole miss played no one good ooc (
bama had a bad miami
uga had a down year clemson (who still ended 9-3)
ok st toughest ooc was boise
michigan played no one good ooc
nd is only ooc
cinci at least played ND (but in conference weak)
oregon and osu played each other at least
baylor played byu

The reality is most top teams have 0-1 ooc match up worth anything.

Using sagarin. All of the top 10 teams have only 1 game against other top 10 teams.

Of the top 10 teams, only 3 (Alabama, OSU, Ole Miss) have 6 games against top 30.

College football team ratings 2021 - Jeff Sagarin Ratings

sagarin.usatoday.com

Overall, uga schedule according to sagarin is rank 50, but other teams with schedules in the 40-60 range are not putting up the same offensive numbers uga is. I think OSU would have soundly beat this year's uga team, but sadly osu choked against a really good michigan team. I think uga matches up much better against michigan.

Ohio State and Michigan had decent schedules.

 

[Tech93]

If they expand it to 120, CGC might be able (maybe) to get us in.

Well technically there are 131 teams, so to be safe think we’d need them to expand to 131.

 

[augustabuzz]

The CFP is owned by the P5 conferences and not the NCAA.

I misspoke, I meant FBS conferences and of course ND has a place at the table as well.

 

[WreckinGT]

I really don't think you could put a 2 loss Bama team over Cincinnati (obviously if they are undefeated). I agree head to head Bama wins 9 out of 10. But the committee really needs to give serious consideration to a Group of 5 team and Cinci is the best possibility since they did beat Notre Dame who is now ranked 6th. The issue really is if Bama beats UGA, then what happens. Michigan gets in if they win for sure. Then I think it comes down to Oklahoma St. or Cinci (assuming Ok. St. beats Baylor). That becomes a very tough decision. The chaos starts if Ok. State loses (or Michigan or Cincinnati), do we really want a 1 loss Notre Dame team to get smoked in the playoffs again? Particularly with Kelly's departure. Or does a 2 loss Bama team get in under that scenario (vs. a 1 loss Notre Dame).

In terms of the future, I think 8 is the right number and I think the alliance may play a big part in that. 12 teams feeds into the SEC getting 3 or 4 (or more) teams each year. I would do P5 champs automatic, best Group of 5 if they are in the Top 10 and 2 or 3 wildcards (depending on Group of 5 best team).

I have watched Bama and Cincy play several times this year. Im not sure Bama is better nor am I sure they would beat Cincy even half of the time in 10 games. Their name is carrying too much weight this year. For the most part they haven't looked great at all. Last week they needed alot of help to beat a really mediocre team.

 

[ibeattetris]

Ohio State and Michigan had decent schedules.

The specific point I was responding to was OOC schedule. Michigan had no OOC opponent worth anything. OSU played and lost to their one good OOC opponent. I definitely think the conference schedule for OSU and UM was much stronger than other top teams (though Sagarin only has Michigan with a 36 SOS so who knows).

 

[RamblinRed]

Cincy is in a funny spot. The CFP will look for almost any reason not to include them.

UGA is in win or lose.
If Bama wins it is in. If it loses then it depends upon what happens with all the other schools.
Mich is in with a win. With a loss it would once again depend upon other schools.
Ok St is in with a win and out with a loss.
Cincy has to win, if it does it needs one of Bama, Mich or Ok St to lose.
ND needs probably 3 out of Mich, AL, Cincy and OK St to lose to get a bid.

Bama should be ready for UGA, but it is going to have to play its best game of the season to beat them. Bama's defense is not the dominant type of defense of the past and Bama has been solid but nothing better away from home. My supervisor is a Bama guy and he is pretty convinced that UGA is going to smack them. AL played 8 of 12 games at home.
It played Miami at MBS and beat them easily. They lost at TX A&M, they beat MS St easily and won in 4 OT's against Auburn in a game they should have lost.

The only thing with UGA is that they haven't been tested since Clemson. How will they respond if someone is still there with them in the 4th Quarter.

 

[FightWinDrink]

I saw they tabled whether to expand the CFP. I have no faith that they will do the right thing and expand to 8. In a way.... I really want Oregon, Michigan and Cincinnati to run the table. Just to push pressure on the committee. We ALL know if Bama beats the Mutts, they will both in....just because SEC. An undefeated Cincy could be screwed. Its sad that you can clearly see that the NCAA isn't interested in fairness. They are only interested in money.

Don’t think Oregon would put any pressure on them. They’d have 2 losses to unranked teams

 

[RamblinRed]

Good look at how chaotic it could get

We Found The Perfect Recipe For College Football Chaos

College football chaos is in the air. Last weekend brought us plenty of it, with then-No. 5 Michigan rolling over No. 2 Ohio State, No. 7 Oklahoma State stormin…

fivethirtyeight.com

 

[ibeattetris]

Bama should be ready for UGA, but it is going to have to play its best game of the season to beat them. Bama's defense is not the dominant type of defense of the past and Bama has been solid but nothing better away from home. My supervisor is a Bama guy and he is pretty convinced that UGA is going to smack them. AL played 8 of 12 games at home.
It played Miami at MBS and beat them easily. They lost at TX A&M, they beat MS St easily and won in 4 OT's against Auburn in a game they should have lost.

The only thing with UGA is that they haven't been tested since Clemson. How will they respond if someone is still there with them in the 4th Quarter.

I still have no idea wtf happened with Bama against Auburn. Bama has been playing *lights out* offense all year. Even the games they struggled were against top fei defenses (Florida 15, LSU 33), but still managed to score enough to win.

Bama will certainly be miles better than any team uga has played this season. I'm hoping bama can punch them in the mouth early and take them down.

 

[RamblinRed]

The CFP is owned by the P5 conferences and not the NCAA.

As mentioned the NCAA has basically nothing to do with FBS football and actually gets 0% of its revenue from FBS games.
The NCAA gets its money from college basketball and in particular March Madness. That accounts for around 80% of its revenue.

The P5 + ND control college football and make sure all the rules work to their advantage.

 

[Papa Foxtrot]

The P5 + ND control college football and make sure all the rules work to their advantage.

Don't overlook Disney's influence...

 

[kalld12]

I have watched Bama and Cincy play several times this year. Im not sure Bama is better nor am I sure they would beat Cincy even half of the time in 10 games. Their name is carrying too much weight this year. For the most part they haven't looked great at all. Last week they needed alot of help to beat a really mediocre team.

Please understand the competition both teams are playing. Cincy would get wiped...

 

[WreckinGT]

Please understand the competition both teams are playing. Cincy would get wiped...

I might be wrong but I feel like Cincy might have a chance to beat a mediocre Auburn team in 4 OTs. Even South Carolina beat Auburn in regulation one week before that.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

The specific point I was responding to was OOC schedule. Michigan had no OOC opponent worth anything. OSU played and lost to their one good OOC opponent. I definitely think the conference schedule for OSU and UM was much stronger than other top teams (though Sagarin only has Michigan with a 36 SOS so who knows).

They had Washington on the schedule, but UW turned out to be a dud this year. Also, they had notorious P5 killer NIU as well....

 

[ibeattetris]

They had Washington on the schedule, but UW turned out to be a dud this year. Also, they had notorious P5 killer NIU as well....

Yeah, and Bama had a Miami team that turned out to be weak, Ole Miss had Louisville who turned out to be weak. My point of contention was the poster saying uga had a joke of of an ooc schedule when they scheduled two P5 opponents in Clemson and GT. It just seems like a weird point to make when the majority of top 10 teams don't have strong ooc schedules this year.