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<blockquote data-quote="CEB" data-source="post: 968048" data-attributes="member: 4905"><p>Two cherry picks from this;</p><p></p><p>1. Team improvement and regression are never linear. Both teams are subject to “ups and downs” each week, so it can sometimes result in wild outcomes. I think you saw a Pitt team that was hyper motivated to salvage a season vs a Lville team that just came off of a huge emotional win and “took a breath” this weekend. For that matter, ND may have suffered a similar fate against Lville last week… it’s hard (massive understatement) to be at 100% mentally AND physically each week. The old adage of “never being as good as your best and never being as bad as your worst” is absolutely true.</p><p></p><p>2. I know a lot of people point at point spreads, but those are just as biased…. Granted, the “bias” comes from a much larger sample size, but the spread moves based on who bets what and everyone’s reasons for betting are different. I think sports fans put WAAAAY too much emphasis on point spreads as a means of relative strength of teams.</p><p></p><p>So the jury is still out on the best metrics for evaluation. As long as humans are involved in any aspect of it, there will be bias…</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="CEB, post: 968048, member: 4905"] Two cherry picks from this; 1. Team improvement and regression are never linear. Both teams are subject to “ups and downs” each week, so it can sometimes result in wild outcomes. I think you saw a Pitt team that was hyper motivated to salvage a season vs a Lville team that just came off of a huge emotional win and “took a breath” this weekend. For that matter, ND may have suffered a similar fate against Lville last week… it’s hard (massive understatement) to be at 100% mentally AND physically each week. The old adage of “never being as good as your best and never being as bad as your worst” is absolutely true. 2. I know a lot of people point at point spreads, but those are just as biased…. Granted, the “bias” comes from a much larger sample size, but the spread moves based on who bets what and everyone’s reasons for betting are different. I think sports fans put WAAAAY too much emphasis on point spreads as a means of relative strength of teams. So the jury is still out on the best metrics for evaluation. As long as humans are involved in any aspect of it, there will be bias… [/QUOTE]
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