CFN.com Bowl Projections: Week 12

[swampsting]

Capital One Orange Bowl

Sun Life Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
Wednesday, Dec. 31, 8:00 ET ESPN
ACC champion or highest-ranked ACC vs. highest-ranked Big Ten, Notre Dame or SEC
Prediction: Georgia Tech vs. Oregon

cfn.scout.com/2/1481468.html

The last time Ted Roof was the Defensive Coordinator of a team that played against Oregon in a Bowl game was when Auburn shut them down for their National Championship win (I think).

Me want this.

 

[up state jacket]

Anyone that would want to play Alabama is delusional. That defense is scary with only one week to prepare for anyone let alone give them a month to prepare. Tech is not there yet. Sorry, but the tide would roll, embarrass how ever you want to describe it. Paul's offenses haven't shown up yet to a bowl game.

 

[GTJackets]

Anyone that would want to play Alabama is delusional. That defense is scary with only one week to prepare for anyone let alone give them a month to prepare. Tech is not there yet. Sorry, but the tide would roll, embarrass how ever you want to describe it. Paul's offenses haven't shown up yet to a bowl game.

Enjoy explaining this to #5. I bet he would be licking his chops at this opportunity.

 

[AlabamaBuzz]

Enjoy explaining this to #5. I bet he would be licking his chops at this opportunity.

#5 would not decide the outcome....their size and speed would take care of that. No, we are not there yet....maybe a few more athletes and size, and I would love to see Paul take down sa(t)an.

 

[GTJackets]

#5 would not decide the outcome....their size and speed would take care of that. No, we are not there yet....maybe a few more athletes and size, and I would love to see Paul take down sa(t)an.

Nothing about my post was a comment on our readiness or the outcome of the game. It was stated that anyone that wanted to play Alabama was delusional. I just said I'm pretty sure you could put #5 in that category. I bet he would love a shot at Alabama.

 

[forensicbuzz]

I don't think it would be much worse than this past Saturday. I think Clemson's senior laden defense is pretty darn good. For that, I think anyone we face in a top-tier bowl will have a stout defense. Let's see how we do against that "SEC Speed" in a couple of weeks. Any given day...

(and yes, I'd love to have some more big horses out there playing for us, but this is our team)

 

[up state jacket]

Clemson's defense is ranked so high because of the ACC schedule. Playing wake, nc state, boston college's of the world tend to skew stats. We saw what ugag did to them in their early season matchup. Not trying to be a buzz kill, but the offenses in the ACC don't scare anyone. Tech scares people because of the scheme yes, but history is not kind to Tech's offense in bowl games when good teams have time to pick up big and small tendencies of the offense.

 

[AE 87]

Clemson's defense is ranked so high because of the ACC schedule. Playing wake, nc state, boston college's of the world tend to skew stats. We saw what ugag did to them in their early season matchup. Not trying to be a buzz kill, but the offenses in the ACC don't scare anyone. Tech scares people because of the scheme yes, but history is not kind to Tech's offense in bowl games when good teams have time to pick up big and small tendencies of the offense.

CU has been #1,#2 D in opponent adjusted stat
GT has been #1, #2 O in opponent adjusted stat

 

[up state jacket]

Put Tech or Clemson in the PAC12 or SEC their stats would be drastically different. You can adjust any way you want, but on the field play says everything. I don't think anyone can argue that. Both schools benefit from playing in a weaker conf. If you are not in agreement to that, then you are not being realistic. I love Tech more than anyone, but facts are facts. Tech would have to play it's best game several times in those conf's to have the record it does today. I'm not saying Tech couldn't be competitive. I'm saying Tech would have a much tougher road and the stats wouldn't be as prolific.

 

[AE 87]

Put Tech or Clemson in the PAC12 or SEC their stats would be drastically different. You can adjust any way you want, but on the field play says everything. I don't think anyone can argue that. Both schools benefit from playing in a weaker conf. If you are not in agreement to that, then you are not being realistic. I love Tech more than anyone, but facts are facts. Tech would have to play it's best game several times in those conf's to have the record it does today. I'm not saying Tech couldn't be competitive. I'm saying Tech would have a much tougher road and the stats wouldn't be as prolific.

I'm not sure we're understanding each other. For example, to me, this post seems to reflect confusion over the fairly basic distinction between overall team performance measured by W-L record and opponent-adjusted assessments of the offense and defense units independently.

Furthermore, to me, it seems you don't understand the fairly basic definition of the word, "facts," which refers to either universal truths or particular past events that have actually happened. However, you used it to apply to particular past events in a hypothetical situation.

Regardless, my post is not challenged by any of these claims which suggests to me that you didn't understand them.

 

[Bruce Wayne]

Put Tech or Clemson in the PAC12 or SEC their stats would be drastically different. You can adjust any way you want, but on the field play says everything. I don't think anyone can argue that. Both schools benefit from playing in a weaker conf. If you are not in agreement to that, then you are not being realistic. I love Tech more than anyone, but facts are facts. Tech would have to play it's best game several times in those conf's to have the record it does today. I'm not saying Tech couldn't be competitive. I'm saying Tech would have a much tougher road and the stats wouldn't be as prolific.

I would prefer to put you in the PAC12 or SEC message boards.

 

[up state jacket]

By all means AE enlighten me on what you're saying. I'm thinking that if Tech played in a in the two conf's I referring to their stats would be vastly different. Therefore the rankings would be different. That goes for Clemson also. The defenses in the ACC don't compare talent wise, athletic wise to the defenses in the SEC or PAC12. Also, the offenses in the SEC or PAC12 are superior to those in the ACC. Also, i'm of the opinion that if Watson doesn't go down or if Sout wasn't injured the game's outcome would probably be different. I would imagine that if Tech played in the Sun Belt or any other less heralded conf that we would have incredible stats on both sides of the ball. I prefer to use the eye ball test and what actually happens between two teams on the field. The Clemson defense I saw was not a top five defense in the country.

 

[up state jacket]

Ban Bruce please, personal attacks are not tolerated on this board. At least that is what I was told.

 

[AE 87]

By all means AE enlighten me on what you're saying. I'm thinking that if Tech played in a in the two conf's I referring to their stats would be vastly different. Therefore the rankings would be different. That goes for Clemson also. The defenses in the ACC don't compare talent wise, athletic wise to the defenses in the SEC or PAC12. Also, the offenses in the SEC or PAC12 are superior to those in the ACC. Also, i'm of the opinion that if Watson doesn't go down or if Sout wasn't injured the game's outcome would probably be different. I would imagine that if Tech played in the Sun Belt or any other less heralded conf that we would have incredible stats on both sides of the ball. I prefer to use the eye ball test and what actually happens between two teams on the field. The Clemson defense I saw was not a top five defense in the country.

Okay. First, I'll explain the term "opponent-adjusted stat." This term does not refer to a raw stat but rather looks at the quality of the opponent and the opponents they've faced.

So, yes, the stats for GT and CU would be different facing different opposition. However, the stats for the GT O and CU D would be better than those facing the same opposition. Sites like footballoutsiders.com try to account for differences in opposition

For an example of the sort of calculation, consider that after week 8, GT's O was averaging 3.4 pts/drive and CU's D was allowing 1.29 ppd on average. When they played GT's O scored 2 ppd, indicating that GTs O and CUs D were better than previous average opposition. Opponent-adjusted stats use computer algorithms to look at all the games and match-ups to determine their rankings.

 

[up state jacket]

Okay. First, I'll explain the term "opponent-adjusted stat." This term does not refer to a raw stat but rather looks at the quality of the opponent and the opponents they've faced.

So, yes, the stats for GT and CU would be different facing different opposition. However, the stats for the GT O and CU D would be better than those facing the same opposition. Sites like footballoutsiders.com try to account for differences in opposition

For an example of the sort of calculation, consider that after week 8, GT's O was averaging 3.4 pts/drive and CU's D was allowing 1.29 ppd on average. When they played GT's O scored 2 ppd, indicating that GTs O and CUs D were better than previous average opposition. Opponent-adjusted stats use computer algorithms to look at all the games and match-ups to determine their rankings.

So essentially it is hypothetical evaluation of each school's particular unit? What if is aren't reality. "Raw" stats are actually what occurs and anything else is a matter of opinion. Unless two teams actually play each other it is impossible to say anything about anything. By the standard you are using VaTech shouldn't have beat Duke or we should have beat Duke, but we know how those games turned out. There are too many variables in a game that can alter overall stats.

 

[AE 87]

So essentially it is hypothetical evaluation of each school's particular unit? What if is aren't reality. "Raw" stats are actually what occurs and anything else is a matter of opinion. Unless two teams actually play each other it is impossible to say anything about anything. By the standard you are using VaTech shouldn't have beat Duke or we should have beat Duke, but we know how those games turned out. There are too many variables in a game that can alter overall stats.

Wow, ok. Let me try to explain further. Stats produce probabilities. These probabilities are never 100%. Smh

I apologize that I cannot make my point clear enough for you to understand.

 

[CHE90]

Ban Bruce please, personal attacks are not tolerated on this board. At least that is what I was told.

Sure thing, WNE.

 

[ibeattetris]

I want Bama. If you don't think the team wants to play the big boys as well, you're fooling yourself.

 

[JDjacket]

I think it gets a lot more complicated. For starters every conference has its own unique style. The SEC was always defense. Big 12 was offense for example. Teams/coaches/players get used to playing in those styles and learn what works best. If you just transplant a team it's not just going to magically make them worse or better. Texas A&M was going to get destroyed in the SEC be their offense wouldn't be able to handle those SEC defenses that were miles above in talent... We saw how that worked out. Yes they're doing worse this season but again adjusting to tendencies takes time.

But I'd like to take your other point about them being more talented. I won't refute the SEC bc statistically they have had more talent based on players sent to the NFL. Second most is the ACC, not the Pac 12. Maybe our coaching is better then, but if you go back through the years in recruiting the ACC constantly has 3-4 teams in the top 15 recruiting rankings while the Pac 12 has 1-2( some combination of UCLA and either USC/Stanford). Clemson consistently brings in more talent every year based on recruiting rankings than all the pac 12 teams.

Let's go with a quick eyeball test. UVA/UCLA/GT. No team except Arizona(17) and Utah(28) has held UCLA to fewer points in the pac 12 so far. UCLA (win/lose) has piled on the points otherwise. See 62 points on previously top 10 ASU 30 on Oregon 44 on Washington(only Oregon scored more by 1). UVA held that offense to 28. We managed 35 so I'd say our offense would stack up pretty well I the pac 12. Heck even FSU managed 34 so I'll say the same and while FSU has been confusing and not good on defense, there offense has been very good.

Again, I won't bother to do an SEC comparison. I think it's understood they're the most talented and have had the best record of the last decade ( although I don't think the gap between them and everyone else is as big as it once was), but I think it's really hard to say the Pac-12 is more talented than the ACC. Hell UNC has had more talent than half the Pac-12 (again based off their recruiting and NFL Prospects) and they haven't managed to be some powerhouse in the ACC.

 

[thwgjacket]

Even if we lose 3 more games that just means we were in the ACC Championship 3 out of 7 years. Even the year where we got in because Miami disqualified itself we were tied with them, it's not like they had a better record than us.