Can we stay competitive in the NIL era?

[jayparr]

I mean, that’s been an issue at Tech for decades, all the way back into the 50s. Before 1990, the last 10 win year was 1956, followed by a 4-4 season in ‘57. After the natty in ‘90 we went 8-5, and then the Bill Lewis era started. With GOL there was a little bit of sustained success, but even that faltered. Same thing with Paul in 08-09. The UGA loss in 09 hurt (and I think it truly hindered the future of the program). But that 11 win year with the ACC championship was followed with 6-7, and a loss to another miserable UGA team. Win that game and Georgia’s bowl streak ends, and they may have went down a spiral like what we’ve seen out of the likes of FSU, Tennessee, Texas, and Nebraska when they’ve went through major coaching shifts. But enough about them. Same thing after 2014, a 3-9 season followed. And even after a 9 win year we followed that with another losing season in 2017. The roller coaster was hitting peaks and valleys at a rapid rate.

I don’t think we’ll ever be a consistent 9-10 game winner like Wisconsin is currently, but somebody like Iowa who is gonna win 7-8 most years but throw in some semi-regular 10 win seasons. I said in another thread that Auburn is creating the mold we need to follow. Granted they have a much larger fanbase and a lot more resources, but I think given the conference circumstances we’re pretty similar, and can compete on similar levels within our respective conferences. Auburn probably plays the toughest schedule in the SEC year-in year-out, they are second fiddle in their own state, but they’re a pretty consistent winner. Fanbase and resource wise they are probably 7th-ish in the SEC behind Alabama, Georgia, Florida, Tennessee, LSU, and A&M. That’s pretty similar with us behind Clemson, Miami, FSU, UNC, VT, NC State. They certainly have a lot more highs in their history (especially recently), but for most of it our paths are pretty similar. Auburn has also learned they have a much easier path to being a national powerhouse in sports other than football, and they have spent a great deal of time, money, and effort to give themselves that opportunity, while maintaining a serviceable football team. That is what I want Georgia Tech to be, but our fans have to let go of that fever dream that we were once a football factory. That’s not the case, and will probably never be again. Auburn is selling out gymnastic meets at an 8,000 seat arena because their fans are fully invested in supporting all sports. Tech fans won’t support any of our sports, and I’m sure at least some of it is because they’re embarrassed about our football team.

Also there are a lot of chinese in the student body and a few likes the sports team; but!

 

[Richard7125]

I don't know how old you are ramblinman (great font!), but I'm downright ancient, and so far I haven't seen one change to cFB that harmed the major programs and helped the mediocre programs. I'm not so sure that even a better W-L record will keep majors from poaching our players that show they are playing better than their recruiting ranking.

if the objective is to close the competitive gap in football between the haves and the have nots, you may be correct; but i would argue the changes the big boys have facilitated (ie TV, playoffs, conf champions and overall money) have been very beneficial to all college athletes. Basically, the rising tide raises all ships philosophy.

 

[GoldZ]

if the objective is to close the competitive gap in football between the haves and the have nots, you may be correct; but i would argue the changes the big boys have facilitated (ie TV, playoffs, conf champions and overall money) have been very beneficial to all college athletes. Basically, the rising tide raises all ships philosophy.

If "big boys" are the majors (10-15 realistic national champs), then we already had: conf championships, tv, playoffs, and money galore (majors that is), long before NIL/TP. The things you listed came from major networks, activists, and greed. NIL/TP imo = Tsunamis, which have a habit of sinking all ships (interesting how Saban and Smart were concerned about this when interviewed on it).

 

[GTpdm]

(interesting how Saban and Smart were unconvincingly pretended to be concerned about this when interviewed on it).

FIFY.

They only thing those two are concerned about is having to compete with each other’s NIL bribes when poaching top players from other teams.

 

[GoldZ]

FIFY.

They only thing those two are concerned about is having to compete with each other’s NIL bribes when poaching top players from other teams.

Ha, that may be true, but if the golden goose dies, they do too. Once espn's ratings go down on yet another Bama type team vs a OSU type team, the 10-15 teams that can win it all are in trouble.

 

[JacketFan137]

Ha, that may be true, but if the golden goose dies, they do too. Once espn's ratings go down on yet another Bama type team vs a OSU type team, the 10-15 teams that can win it all are in trouble.

10-15? being awfully generous. it’s realistically like 4 teams right now: Bama, Uga, ohio state and clemson.

LSU took a ridiculous perfect storm to make it and has pretty much been the only team outside of bama, uga clemson and ohio state to make a run.

 

[Richard7125]

10-15? being awfully generous. it’s realistically like 4 teams right now: Bama, Uga, ohio state and clemson.

LSU took a ridiculous perfect storm to make it and has pretty much been the only team outside of bama, uga clemson and ohio state to make a run.

Don't sleep on Southern Cal. They've been gun shy since the Reggie Bush incident, but NIL will let them spend huge money legally now. They will be back in the mix in 2 years (if not sooner). There was a lot of change at big schools this year so i wouldn't be surprised to see some other schools emerging too.

I think the competitive gap between the haves and have nots will increase, but I think there will be more "factories" that are competitive with Bama going forward. These schools will spend lots of money and that will attract the players (see Texas AM). Bama, UGA, OSU, Clemson spend lots of money, but they also have instituted benchmark processes. NIL money will allow "factories" with not as good of processes to funnel money directly to the players.

 

[slugboy]

Interesting rant re: $30M NIL fund. Choose to believe what you want (Fisher, BroBible, etc.)

There's a paywall, but according to the Athletic table stakes to play at the big boy table is about $25 million. They don’t seem chastened by Jimbo’s comments—they’re digging in.

Cars, apartments and 'six-figure packages': Inside the new, money-fueled frontier of the college football arms race

While money has always fueled college football, that fuel is now going in a brand-new engine. And the price is only going to rise.

theathletic.com

 

[a5ehren]

1) The word "stay" is doing a lot of heavy lifting in the OP's title. Besides a couple freak occurrences, GT hasn't been competitive consistently on a national or regional basis since the 1950s.
2) The eventual endpoint is a Super League with 24-40 teams. 32+ would give ESPN enough games to fill 4 game slots on 4 networks every Saturday without using lower-level games.
2a) GT will not be in the Super League.

The reasons for GT not being consistently competitve are the same as they've always been, just with different labels - it's a hard school with limited majors and we don't spend or generate as much money as it takes to win big. There isn't a serious appetite among the school, donors, or state government to change those things, so they aren't going to change.

 

[JacketFan137]

1) The word "stay" is doing a lot of heavy lifting in the OP's title. Besides a couple freak occurrences, GT hasn't been competitive consistently on a national or regional basis since the 1950s.
2) The eventual endpoint is a Super League with 24-40 teams. 32+ would give ESPN enough games to fill 4 game slots on 4 networks every Saturday without using lower-level games.
2a) GT will not be in the Super League.

The reasons for GT not being consistently competitve are the same as they've always been, just with different labels - it's a hard school with limited majors and we don't spend or generate as much money as it takes to win big. There isn't a serious appetite among the school, donors, or state government to change those things, so they aren't going to change.

i think part of the discourse on this page that no one knows how to quantify is “competitive”. paul johnson basically had 2 teams that were nationally competitive in 2014 and 2009. aside from that he finished ranked 1 other time in 2008.

going back to 2000 that brings our total to 5 ranked finishes in 22 years. not exactly some consistent theme of being great. is competitive keeping games close? ending 7-6 with an appearance in the Meineke Car Care Bowl? ending ranked? i’m not sure

regardless i think people have a very warped reality of what things were like before collins and are looking back on the past a little too fondly. there were some tough years and inexplicable losses dating all the way back to 2000 that’s not something new

 

[majorQ9]

Cars, apartments and 'six-figure packages': Inside the new, money-fueled frontier of the college football arms race

While money has always fueled college football, that fuel is now going in a brand-new engine. And the price is only going to rise.

theathletic.com

 

[Vespidae]

there were some tough years and inexplicable losses dating all the way back to 2000 that’s not something new

It goes back to Heisman's days. We punctuated some very good years with some very bad years. In terms of defining "competitive", I would suggest that being competitive means winning more than 8 games a year (on average, for a wpct of 0.667+) and being consistent doing so. So sure, you'll go 6-6 and then 8-4 and perhaps 10-2 and then 6-6 again. I'm fine with that. It would be better if you could reload every year, but that is not realistic for us.

 

[GoldZ]

i think part of the discourse on this page that no one knows how to quantify is “competitive”. paul johnson basically had 2 teams that were nationally competitive in 2014 and 2009. aside from that he finished ranked 1 other time in 2008.

going back to 2000 that brings our total to 5 ranked finishes in 22 years. not exactly some consistent theme of being great. is competitive keeping games close? ending 7-6 with an appearance in the Meineke Car Care Bowl? ending ranked? i’m not sure

regardless i think people have a very warped reality of what things were like before collins and are looking back on the past a little too fondly. there were some tough years and inexplicable losses dating all the way back to 2000 that’s not something new

3-9 three consecutive years IS something new, not to mention how we look doing it.

 

[okiemon]

Cars, apartments and 'six-figure packages': Inside the new, money-fueled frontier of the college football arms race

While money has always fueled college football, that fuel is now going in a brand-new engine. And the price is only going to rise.

theathletic.com

Just read that myself earlier — very interesting but also pretty discouraging for a lot of schools. This statement by the head of the Tennessee “collective” says everything you need to know about the new world of recruiting:

‘“We want players to see through social media if you come to Tennessee, they’re going to have a nice car, going to have a nice apartment,” Baddour said.’

 

[Vespidae]

So visiting the family this weekend, my brother in law brings me up to speed on Bama football. He's in the know and attended a recent briefing with Nick Saban talking about NIL and the need for ANOTHER fundraising effort/goal. Saban also pointed out that NIL is evolving fast and in ways they never intended. The NCAA is powerless to stop it.

College football will never be the same.

 

[Pointer]

So visiting the family this weekend, my brother in law brings me up to speed on Bama football. He's in the know and attended a recent briefing with Nick Saban talking about NIL and the need for ANOTHER fundraising effort/goal. Saban also pointed out that NIL is evolving fast and in ways they never intended. The NCAA is powerless to stop it.

College football will never be the same.

Hopefully this will happen

 

[InsideLB]

I think the portal + NIL will be trouble for all but the factories.

The best players on every non-factory school will be increasingly incentivized to jump ship for greater NIL opportunities. Will be lots of tampering and is way too hard to police.

Hate to say it but I think CFB is going to become about 30-40 teams. I'd like to think we'd be one of them. However I think there is a lot working against GT.

 

[iceeater1969]

I think the portal + NIL will be trouble for all but the factories.

The best players on every non-factory school will be increasingly incentivized to jump ship for greater NIL opportunities. Will be lots of tampering and is way too hard to police.

Hate to say it but I think CFB is going to become about 30-40 teams. I'd like to think we'd be one of them. However I think there is a lot working against GT.

Spot on unless Ncaa steps in and cuts scholarships at the member university based on appearances in playoffs. Without the college presidents demanding change we are in the mega fcs.

Even if Ncaa acts , gt may still be screwed because almost all of our alumni are well off but too few are really wealthy. We have too few movers and shackers with fun money.

On our side.
Being in ATL is a location for games. BDS has a great up close viewing experience. Also we are within driving distance for a great percentage of talented player.

 

[jayparr]

VERY LITTLE CHANCE IN THE NEXT 2 DECADES! SORRY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[CEB]

Spot on unless Ncaa steps in and cuts scholarships at the member university based on appearances in playoffs. Without the college presidents demanding change we are in the mega fcs.

Even if Ncaa acts , gt may still be screwed because almost all of our alumni are well off but too few are really wealthy. We have too few movers and shackers with fun money.

On our side.
Being in ATL is a location for games. BDS has a great up close viewing experience. Also we are within driving distance for a great percentage of talented player.

I think it’s going to take more than NCAA scholarship cuts. With all that’s going on, I’m not sure scholarship numbers even matter. Ran out of scholarship spots and still need a running back? NIL deal pays for (or pays enough) to cover all college costs... it doesn’t have to be a “scholarship” per se. if they can give you cash and apartments, why not compensate the kid to cover his tuition costs too? Scholarship limits resulted in roster limits because kids won’t pay tuition to ride the bench if they can get a scholarship elsewhere... but if their tuition is paid by NIL, what good is the scholly limit?
Im sure the NCAA doesn’t want to get into a roster cap battle and the big boys would fight that tooth and nail anyway. besides, the NCAA doesn’t even really have standing over FBS CFB anymore. Something like that will have to come from the conferences, and none of the P5 are going to proactively put themselves at disadvantage for the sake of the “greater good.” The best chance of that would be the “alliance” the Big Ten was tossing around but again, why would the alliance conferences cap their rosters and watch the SEC schools carry 125+ players?
I don’t know the answer but the solution will almost certainly be messy and will almost certainly not come soon enough for a lot of schools.