Can we stay competitive in the NIL era?

[UgaBlows]

It's ultimately going to take enough 4 or 5 star busts to temper the insanity / hysteria gripping the nil phenomenon.

I don’t think that will ever happen, look how many busts there are in the NFL draft and yet they keep throwing millions at them every year

 

[WraleighWreck]

The people that draft the nfl busts(nfl owners) have a legitimate business interest in that player that can ultimately translate to on the field and financial success for their franchise. More wins = higher franchise value. Plus, The nfl has established rookie salary guidelines to maintain parity and keep the deals from getting out of hand. NCAA team boosters may have all the money in the world to toss around for NIL but there will come a time when the benefits have to equal the costs. I guess Texas A&M will be the first test case in about 3 years if they were able to buy a natty with their $25M signing class.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

It's ultimately going to take enough 4 or 5 star busts to temper the insanity / hysteria gripping the nil phenomenon.

I don’t think that will ever happen, look how many busts there are in the NFL draft and yet they keep throwing millions at them every year

If NIL were simply legitimate companies looking to take a flyer on getting a potential up and comer to sign a deal before he explodes into the spotlight, then yes, a few busts would probably serve to limit the profligate spending we see heading our way.

That's not the future of NIL though. Texas A&M is showing what is truly to come. Big money boosters set up shell companies with a primary mission of funneling money to high value recruits via NIL agreements. If a company's primary focus is to pay recruits, then a few busts aren't going to really matter. You can't win if you are afraid to lose. I don't see anything other than outside regulation by either the government or a coalition of conferences stemming this tide...

 

[bigrabbit]

Wonder if TAMU boosters might eventually view their money as a bad investment? A lot of high profile h.s. players don’t work out in college. Would the alliance regulate NIL, letting the SEC just run with it? I could imagine everyone agreeing on transfer portal changes “for the welfare of SAs getting stranded”.

Re: GT back in the SEC, personally I think chances are zero. B1G chances are greater based on (1) they have expressed interest in the recent past, (2) they would gain Atlanta media market presence and (3) better cultural fit v sec as evidenced by the alliance, AAU.

However the simplest solution is usually the most likely - we stay in the ACC as a distant 3rd or 4th power conference in football, stronger in basketball.

Assuming we get out of our own way with bad hires/contracts, I think we can aspire to a winning record in the Coastal most years, to a Coastal championship many years and to make an expanded 12 team playoff every now and then. Pretty good for a nerd school.

 

[Richard7125]

If NIL were simply legitimate companies looking to take a flyer on getting a potential up and comer to sign a deal before he explodes into the spotlight, then yes, a few busts would probably serve to limit the profligate spending we see heading our way.

That's not the future of NIL though. Texas A&M is showing what is truly to come. Big money boosters set up shell companies with a primary mission of funneling money to high value recruits via NIL agreements. If a company's primary focus is to pay recruits, then a few busts aren't going to really matter. You can't win if you are afraid to lose. I don't see anything other than outside regulation by either the government or a coalition of conferences stemming this tide...

I agree with this. Moreover, we are looking at NIL like a guaranteed Pro Contract. I would be willing to bet the language in these contracts are heavily geared towards the booster. If things don’t work out with the 5 star athlete the freshman year, that money will get moved to an incoming 5 star athlete the next year.

 

[Richard7125]

Did not read all of this, but I think the NIL combined with portal creates the following at some point:

32 Team "super league" at the top, with the remaining 100 schools left to have their own championship playoff or whatever. I would assume there still can be crossover games for sure, but only those who sign up to compete at a high level of NIL would be considered for the 32 team league.

I don't want this, but I think it is the only outcome where the rest of the teams have a legitimate chance at a natty, albeit a lesser league natty. The best HS players are going to go where the NIL $$ are, and the players that develop into top talent in the lower league will mostly head for the NIL deals with those same teams via portal.

A 32 team super league seems like it would make sense, but I don't think it will ever happen. The only schools powerful enough to make this kind of seizmic change are the alabamas, Texas, OSU, etc and they are content with the current setup. The schools that would be pushing this are the ones who can't (or don't want to) compete financially. And the reality is the schools that can't compete financially don't move the needle in the college football world.

Secondly, try to select 32 teams to be in a super conference. Who are you going to leave out? Nebraska? the Mississippi schools? Arkansas, UCLA? There are more schools than you realize that would want to be in the super league (and would be willing to meet financial obligations). It's only the bottom 20 teams in the P5 that probably wouldn't fit (Tech is in bottom 20). Also, if conferences are getting blown up for a super league, there are some G5 schools that would be a better fit than the bottom P5 schools. (ie UCF, Cincy, Liberty, Boise State).

I think a more likely scenario (but still a long way off) are two different playoffs similar to the NCAA and NIT tourney in basketball. This would give more post season content which is what Media companies want. This also enables you to preserve the current conference structure (which the factories prefer) but you give many more teams a chance to win a championship.

 

[CEB]

An insurection by the balance of the +100 FBS college football programs vs. the SEC is warranted, but will require mindful, effective conference coordination but will most likely be too little to late...it is a crossroad...

I think we have to go all out. I think this situation absolutely requires a really futile and stupid gesture be done on somebody’s part.

 

[GoldZ]

There is already an imbalance. College Football is absolutely broken, but the only way to fix it would be regulations that the big schools would never agree to.

A big problem being replaced by a bigger problem doesn't sound like progress.

 

[DavidStandingBear]

Where do you get we are overpaying coaches? Our head coach is about average and the coordinators are below average. Obviously the Group of 5 pays far less but they have significantly less revenue (yes even compared to GT) to pay coaches. Yes you can absolutely question if the results have provided us a payback. But if you want to hire talented head coaches and coordinators, we are not overpaying.

I estimate that the average coach goes 6 and 6 in 12 games and thus goes to a bowl. But now that our coach has all his top recruits and transfers, I forecast 8-4 next year.

 

[GoldZ]

I estimate that the average coach goes 6 and 6 in 12 games and thus goes to a bowl. But now that our coach has all his top recruits and transfers, I forecast 8-4 next year.

Good luck wi dat. So hope u r correct.

 

[RamblinRed]

The most interesting demographic for AL since Saban has arrived is where its student body comes from.
The year before Saban took over the student body was almost 80% from the state of AL. Today, the student body is only 42% from the state of AL and 58% from outside the state.

 

[GoldZ]

The most interesting demographic for AL since Saban has arrived is where its student body comes from.
The year before Saban took over the student body was almost 80% from the state of AL. Today, the student body is only 42% from the state of AL and 58% from outside the state.

Sounds like winning football can actually improve the quality of a school's student body!

 

[ChicagobasedJacket]

Sounds like winning football can actually improve the quality of a school's student body!

Exactly! Our administration at GT seems to not understand this concept. At a minimum, it increases applications.

 

[bigrabbit]

What Bama has done is at a minimum offer any reasonably strong student in-state tuition, plus often additional scholarships.
I mean students from probably anywhere, but definitely from the Atlanta area (I know this first hand from my kids’ friends). It’s a reasonable alternative to uga level students who want to go somewhere else.

GT is no where near that desperate for good students. Any of you with kids applying to GT these days knows this. A friend of one of my kids made 800 on his math SAT and was rejected by GT. GT applications are highly self selective - not everyone wants to go to a math intensive school. In spite of that, the last acceptance rate I saw was 18%. The GT admissions profile is closer to Duke than Bama. If football and academics correlated, applications to schools like GT and Duke would be dropping rather than going up.

However, GT is among a fairly small group of nerd schools endeavoring to compete in the world of semi pro college football and I agree it’s important for student life. Not important enough to convince top students to turn down schools like GT to go to Tuscaloosa. I’m watching my kids and their friends, big sports fans, picking top schools with crap football.

 

[bigrabbit]

One other quick NIL and Bama thought. I was on a Bama fan site briefly yesterday and they are also concerned about NIL and especially the portal. The portal is damaging teams and many players - so I could imagine regulating that process.

My guess on NIL is we might look back some day on the insanity of pricing up 18 year olds. Maybe it ends like a market crash, “wow, what were we thinking?”. Btw I’m in favor of players getting a cash stipend, but going way beyond that, for most college players 98.4% of whom will never play at the next level, is nuts.

Our athletes have the opportunity to get a Georgia Tech diploma. The average 18 year old might not fully appreciate that, so we have to recruit exceptional people, that’s just how it is.

 

[forensicbuzz]

Sounds like winning football can actually improve the quality of a school's student body!

This was a concerted effort by the University. They would go into schools up here in the Midwest and offer these kids In-State tuition to go to Alabama. That's a huge savings over what the in-state schools up here cost. It's almost as much to go to UIUC in-state as it is Tech out-of-state.

 

[Techwood Relict]

A friend of one of my kids made 800 on his math SAT and was rejected by GT.

This would change the mantra from "I got out!" to "I got in!".

I wouldn't come close to being admitted these days with thresholds like this.

 

[GoldZ]

What Bama has done is at a minimum offer any reasonably strong student in-state tuition, plus often additional scholarships.
I mean students from probably anywhere, but definitely from the Atlanta area (I know this first hand from my kids’ friends). It’s a reasonable alternative to uga level students who want to go somewhere else.

GT is no where near that desperate for good students. Any of you with kids applying to GT these days knows this. A friend of one of my kids made 800 on his math SAT and was rejected by GT. GT applications are highly self selective - not everyone wants to go to a math intensive school. In spite of that, the last acceptance rate I saw was 18%. The GT admissions profile is closer to Duke than Bama. If football and academics correlated, applications to schools like GT and Duke would be dropping rather than going up.

However, GT is among a fairly small group of nerd schools endeavoring to compete in the world of semi pro college football and I agree it’s important for student life. Not important enough to convince top students to turn down schools like GT to go to Tuscaloosa. I’m watching my kids and their friends, big sports fans, picking top schools with crap football.

It's not that lack of football success at GT hurts enrollment or applications, but moreso that success in football wouldn't harm in any way whatsoever it's academic standing and reputation. Football may help at Bama/Auburn/UGA with enrollment from out of state. Less serious students on a relative basis may be attracted to such, while more serious students, not so much.

 

[chewybaka]

It's not that lack of football success at GT hurts enrollment or applications, but moreso that success in football wouldn't harm in any way whatsoever it's academic standing and reputation. Football may help at Bama/Auburn/UGA with enrollment from out of state. Less serious students on a relative basis may be attracted to such, while more serious students, not so much.

Army/Navy e.g.

 

[Skeptic]

Sounds like winning football can actually improve the quality of a school's student body!

more probably the result of a deliberate move by the trustees and administration to increase the high dollar out-of-state students and cut lowdollar in state students.