Breakdown Of The Run Game In COFH

[4shotB]

When you win all the time, your opponents lose more ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Wow....I was up all night cunching the numbers. It appears that your hypothesis is mathematically sound. There are a few similar nuggets and pearls of wisdom scattered throughout this site if one is willing to work to sift through all the posts to find them. I can't believe this site is still free! Can we quote you on this or is it copyrighted?

 

[Ibeeballin]

Early in the video, they complemented Tech offense, but had to say that every highschool offense will be running this. I know that i'm a bit touchy, but it was meant as a slap to GT.

No it wasn’t.

 

[MWBATL]

If we had beaten Bowling Green, Clemson, and Boston College, they’d all have six wins or less. When you win all the time, your opponents lose more ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Clemson?

 

[slugboy]

Wow....I was up all night cunching the numbers. It appears that your hypothesis is mathematically sound. There are a few similar nuggets and pearls of wisdom scattered throughout this site if one is willing to work to sift through all the posts to find them. I can't believe this site is still free! Can we quote you on this or is it copyrighted?

This work © 2023 is licensed under Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International

 

[awbuzz]

If we had beaten Bowling Green, Clemson, and Boston College, they’d all have six wins or less. When you win all the time, your opponents lose more ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I've seen and heard a stat the says that overall half the teams that play on Saturday don't win the game! Imagine that

 

[slugboy]

Clemson?

Yeah, the South Carolina game moved them up to 8 wins. My mistake there.

We played Ole Miss out of conference, FCS SCST, and 7-5 Bowling Green. We deserve credit for scheduling Ole Miss.

In conference, we played
10-2 Louisville
8-4 Clemson
8-4 UNC
7-5 Miami
6-6 BC
6-6 Syracuse
4-9 Wake Forest
3-9 UVA

Are we saying our schedule was that much harder to the degree that it would have mattered? (UGA would have torn through our schedule).

UGA’s schedule could have been more difficult, but they’d still be undefeated if they swapped one of their out of conference opponents for USC, or a team from 10-25. If they’d played Clemson, they’d have had a better TV schedule, but Clemson would have one more loss. Are they supposed to play Penn State or Michigan during the season?

Next year, they have Bama on their schedule. It’ll be more difficult. When they put the season together several years ago, were they thinking that Florida wouldn’t be bowl-eligible, and that Auburn would be weak?

 

[CEB]

This doesn't apply very often with Ugag. They are pretty good at back filing. There is one play in the film where Dontae had an open field in front of him. One - just one - block downfield on their safety and all he had to beat was one guy hitting him sideways. He'd have scored easy.

Btw, one thing I noticed is that downfield blocking by the OLs is not done that often. It appears to be left up to the TEs and WRs. Ok, this is one reason to have TEs, but some downfield blocks by either OLs or RBs would have helped. Another year's experience and development might do it. I doubt Faulkner wants the OLs to stay home if they can move well enough. We'll see.

Lots of what we do is RPO, so we need to keep lineman at the LOS in case the pass option comes available to the QB. I’m not remembering the exact play you reference, but there are several examples of what you’re saying. There was talk in another thread on H King fake reverse keeper also; he had an option to throw it so linemen didn’t get to the second level when it looked like they could’ve blocked a LB or S.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

It's interesting that they said we played an easier schedule than them. They played:

UT Martin
Ball State
UAB
(and Vanderbilt)

That's a lot of fluff for a team supposedly contending for the natty.

For the film study: uGA had "clumps" of defenders who weren't able to get to the edge, and also weren't able to stop the QB keep up the middle. Basically they had defenders in no-man's land. They got out-schemed. It's a shame we lost this one.

/

Yeah, the schedule comment was predictable. The SEC has spent decades and a lot of PR money to advance the narrative that it’s harder to win in the SEC. It’s just automatic now.

People will come at me for saying this but I believe Tech would have won just as many games playing Georgia’s schedule and that if Georgia had played Tech’s schedule they could easily have one or two losses.

What made Georgia’s schedule especially easy was not just how low it was ranked in difficulty but how many warm up games were packed in before they got to the meat of their schedule.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

Yeah, the South Carolina game moved them up to 8 wins. My mistake there.

We played Ole Miss out of conference, FCS SCST, and 7-5 Bowling Green. We deserve credit for scheduling Ole Miss.

In conference, we played
10-2 Louisville
8-4 Clemson
8-4 UNC
7-5 Miami
6-6 BC
6-6 Syracuse
4-9 Wake Forest
3-9 UVA

Are we saying our schedule was that much harder to the degree that it would have mattered? (UGA would have torn through our schedule).

UGA’s schedule could have been more difficult, but they’d still be undefeated if they swapped one of their out of conference opponents for USC, or a team from 10-25. If they’d played Clemson, they’d have had a better TV schedule, but Clemson would have one more loss. Are they supposed to play Penn State or Michigan during the season?

Next year, they have Bama on their schedule. It’ll be more difficult. When they put the season together several years ago, were they thinking that Florida wouldn’t be bowl-eligible, and that Auburn would be weak?

Disagree. Uga would have opened with Louisville rather than playing mainly patsies for the first half of their season. When you play teams also makes a difference.

 

[slugboy]

Disagree. Uga would have opened with Louisville rather than playing mainly patsies for the first half of their season. When you play teams also makes a difference.

They played Ball State, UT Martin, and UAB. They played one more patsy than we did (BG and SCST).

 

[yeti92]

They played Ball State, UT Martin, and UAB. They played one more patsy than we did (BG and SCST).

Ball State and UAB are both 4-8, they are both weaker than BG.

We kicked off the season with 2 top 15 teams in the first 3 weeks. uga didn't play a top 15 team until November. We played 4 top 25 teams including a top 5, they played 3 top 25 teams.

Our schedule was unquestionably harder.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

They played Ball State, UT Martin, and UAB. They played one more patsy than we did (BG and SCST).

No argument. But WHEN did they play them?

Also, and this is probably where we disagree, I would rather have played Florida than Miami, Tennessee than Louisville, South Carolina than North Carolina, Vanderbilt than Wake Forest. Even though our record was almost as good as uga’s against this stretch of teams.

 

[slugboy]

Ball State and UAB are both 4-8, they are significantly worse than BG.

What does that even mean? We scheduled a harder patsy? If UGA schedules BG they get a loss or they look weaker? That we scheduled BG as a tough opponent?

We scheduled BG to lose to us.

The toughest teams on our schedule were Louisville, Ole Miss, and Clemson. They stomped Ole Miss.

No argument. But WHEN did they play them?

Also, and this is probably where we disagree, I would rather have played Florida than Miami, Tennessee than Louisville, South Carolina than North Carolina, Vanderbilt than Wake Forest. Even though our record was almost as good as uga’s against this stretch of teams.

UGA is in the SEC East. The rest of their division is down this year.

They played Missouri. I’d rather play Louisville than Missouri. Yes, Louisville is 10-2, but their strength of schedule is even weaker than UGA’s. UGA beat #9 Missouri 30-21 and #11 Ole Miss 52-17. We gave them one of their more competitive games of the year.

ESPN would have liked more marquee matchups for UGA, but we don’t have any reason to throw stones. Alabama, Michigan, Oregon, Penn State, and most of the top 10 would have rolled through our schedule with no problem. Maybe Clemson or Miami would have been a blip.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

What does that even mean? We scheduled a harder patsy? If UGA schedules BG they get a loss or they look weaker? That we scheduled BG as a tough opponent?

We scheduled BG to lose to us.

The toughest teams on our schedule were Louisville, Ole Miss, and Clemson. They stomped Ole Miss.


UGA is in the SEC East. The rest of their division is down this year.

They played Missouri. I’d rather play Louisville than Missouri. Yes, Louisville is 10-2, but their strength of schedule is even weaker than UGA’s. UGA beat #9 Missouri 30-21 and #11 Ole Miss 52-17. We gave them one of their more competitive games of the year.

ESPN would have liked more marquee matchups for UGA, but we don’t have any reason to throw stones. Alabama, Michigan, Oregon, Penn State, and most of the top 10 would have rolled through our schedule with no problem. Maybe Clemson or Miami would have been a blip.

Would rather play Alabama in the first half of the season than Clemson in the second half. Again, that’s just me. Clemson needed to settle their offense enough to not beat themselves. Their defense would keep them in the game against any team in the nation right now.

But convince me I’m wrong about my original statement that Tech could just as easily have won 6 games with uga’s schedule.

PS, you’re fun to argue with

 

[stinger78]

I don't understand the comparison being made here. Is the contention that UGAg would not have gone undefeated against our schedule? I don't see anyone accounting for Mizzou here. They are as good as Louisville and Ole Miss is Ole Miss. UT vs. Clemson? Early I'd give the nod to UT, maybe later I'd call them even. Those three toughest teams are all about even. Middling teams are middling teams. Then you get to patsies. Does the argument boil down our patsies being better than theirs?

I think UGAg goes undefeated through our schedule, too. Yes, L'ville and Ole Miss might have been a challenge in the first three weeks but I believe that UGAg wins those mainly because I think they could run against them and control the game. I don't think Plummer and Dart would have near the success against the UGAg DB that they had on ours.

Just my $.02 worth.

 

[slugboy]

Would rather play Alabama in the first half of the season than Clemson in the second half. Again, that’s just me. Clemson needed to settle their offense enough to not beat themselves. Their defense would keep them in the game against any team in the nation right now.

But convince me I’m wrong about my original statement that Tech could just as easily have won 6 games with uga’s schedule.

PS, you’re fun to argue with

Ok. Schedule gets a lot easier when your rival is out of the top 25 rather than #1

UT Martin
Ball State
South Carolina
UAB

Anywhere from 4-0 to 2-2 (if we have our inscrutable early season folds) for the first 4 games. Let’s say 3-1

Auburn
Kentucky
Vandy
Florida

Anywhere from 4-0 to 1-3. Let’s say we do well and we go 2-2.

Missouri
Ole Miss
Tennessee
UGA (instead of GT)

Either 0-4 or 1-3. Tennessee is beatable, the other three are murder for us this year. Back to back, this is brutal.

It’s really easy to see 5 wins against this schedule. Probably 6, maybe 7.

It’s slightly easier than our schedule, but the main difference is we play the #1 team and UGA doesn’t.

We’d wonder why Key fell apart at the end of the season (the same as some of us give Duke grief for looking like a top 25 team until hitting game 6).

 

[Northeast Stinger]

Ok. Schedule gets a lot easier when your rival is out of the top 25 rather than #1

UT Martin
Ball State
South Carolina
UAB

Anywhere from 4-0 to 2-2 (if we have our inscrutable early season folds) for the first 4 games. Let’s say 3-1

Auburn
Kentucky
Vandy
Florida

Anywhere from 4-0 to 1-3. Let’s say we do well and we go 2-2.

Missouri
Ole Miss
Tennessee
UGA (instead of GT)

Either 0-4 or 1-3. Tennessee is beatable, the other three are murder for us this year. Back to back, this is brutal.

It’s really easy to see 5 wins against this schedule. Probably 6, maybe 7.

It’s slightly easier than our schedule, but the main difference is we play the #1 team and UGA doesn’t.

We’d wonder why Key fell apart at the end of the season (the same as some of us give Duke grief for looking like a top 25 team until hitting game 6).

All of which confirms what we already knew, which is that, for a number one team in the country, uga had an incredibly easy schedule.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

But, wishing Alabama wasn’t down this year. Compare them to Clemson, for instance. A better offense but a much worse defense. They were hanging on by their fingernails against a mediocre Auburn whereas Clemson was smothering the South Carolina offense. I believe, right now, Clemson would give uga a tougher game.

I expect uga to win easily but if they lose they clearly didn’t deserve their number one ranking and it would prove that their preseason ranking, along with most SEC rankings, really stacked the perception early.

 

[stinger78]

UGA is a very good team but had its struggle against a mediocre Tech. Not sure they're better than UoM, Wash/Oregon, or Texas... or Alabama... but they're good.

 

[slugboy]

All of which confirms what we already knew, which is that, for a number one team in the country, uga had an incredibly easy schedule.

Most models projected them to win 11.5 ish games against their schedule. They’d have been projected to win 11.5 games against our schedule (maybe less because they’d have to play UGA), and against Alabama’s. Maybe it’s worse for them in the B1G mixed in with Michigan and Ohio State and Penn State. So maybe they should play in a tougher conference?

They have the #55 schedule (SOS metrics are all over the place). Ours is about #40. Should they have played Texas’ schedule?

It’s not like they played Liberty’s schedule