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Bracketology - Let's Do This
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<blockquote data-quote="lv20gt" data-source="post: 781669" data-attributes="member: 2299"><p>IMO a lot of places are leaning heavily on prior years to make projections which I think is a reasonable thing to do but also flawed. This year has so many canceled games and weird schedules that its hard for me to believe anyone has that great an idea about how the bubble will play out. Win totals especially I wouldn't bother with. I'd look at NET rankings </p><p></p><p>Looking at 2019 here are some at large bids that made it in and their NET rankings and Q1 records and Q2 records</p><p></p><p>Belmont - 47 /2-3 /4-2</p><p>Temple - 56 /2-7 /6-2</p><p>Minnesota - 61 /6-11 /7-2</p><p>St Johns - 73 /5-7 /5-4</p><p>Arizona State-63 /3-4 /9-3</p><p>Ohios State- 55 /5-11 /5-3</p><p></p><p>Here are two other teams from the 2019 year to consider</p><p></p><p>Clemson - 35 /1-10 /6-3</p><p>NCSU - 33 /3-9 /5-1</p><p></p><p>The thing is those two weren't even in the first four out. Here were the first four out according to the committee. </p><p>UNCG - 60 /2-6 /2-1</p><p>Alabama - 59 /3-10 /7-3</p><p>TCU - 52 /3-10 /8-4</p><p>Indiana - 54 /6-9 /3-6</p><p></p><p>Currently we're sitting at 51 /1-6/4-0</p><p></p><p>If we win out in the regular season we'd be at x /2-6 /6-0. </p><p></p><p>My take away is that the committee appeared to favor Q1 wins a good bit but also seemed to look at Q2 losses. The former doesn't really favor us while the latter does. IMO if we win out we are likely in based on who got in and who was left out in the 2019 year. I was trying to find out why Bama was a first four out instead of NCSU since to me it seems like NCSU has the clear better resume. Only thing I can see is NCSU played 10 Q4 games that year and Bama only played 4 (and lost one). That probably played a role either directly or in the SOS metric. FWIW we have only played 2 Q4 games this year</p><p></p><p>My take is if we win out in the regular season we are likely in. We're already 51 which is higher than most of the teams listed and that would probably rise as our 4 remaining games are Q1, Q2, Q2, Q3 (although @wake is borderline Q2 they probably won't be if we beat them). We also have chances for the clemson, unc, and kentucky if they are considered neutral site, to be bumped up to Q1. Lets say one of those happens. If we're ranked 40th, are 3-6, 7-0 in the Q1 Q2 that looks in to me. </p><p></p><p>But again, looking at any kind of data that relies on win totals from previous years is likely going to be inaccurate. I think regardless we need to get another big win, either @VT or likely in the ACCT. And I think we really need to be pulling for UNC, Clemson, and Kentucky.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="lv20gt, post: 781669, member: 2299"] IMO a lot of places are leaning heavily on prior years to make projections which I think is a reasonable thing to do but also flawed. This year has so many canceled games and weird schedules that its hard for me to believe anyone has that great an idea about how the bubble will play out. Win totals especially I wouldn't bother with. I'd look at NET rankings Looking at 2019 here are some at large bids that made it in and their NET rankings and Q1 records and Q2 records Belmont - 47 /2-3 /4-2 Temple - 56 /2-7 /6-2 Minnesota - 61 /6-11 /7-2 St Johns - 73 /5-7 /5-4 Arizona State-63 /3-4 /9-3 Ohios State- 55 /5-11 /5-3 Here are two other teams from the 2019 year to consider Clemson - 35 /1-10 /6-3 NCSU - 33 /3-9 /5-1 The thing is those two weren't even in the first four out. Here were the first four out according to the committee. UNCG - 60 /2-6 /2-1 Alabama - 59 /3-10 /7-3 TCU - 52 /3-10 /8-4 Indiana - 54 /6-9 /3-6 Currently we're sitting at 51 /1-6/4-0 If we win out in the regular season we'd be at x /2-6 /6-0. My take away is that the committee appeared to favor Q1 wins a good bit but also seemed to look at Q2 losses. The former doesn't really favor us while the latter does. IMO if we win out we are likely in based on who got in and who was left out in the 2019 year. I was trying to find out why Bama was a first four out instead of NCSU since to me it seems like NCSU has the clear better resume. Only thing I can see is NCSU played 10 Q4 games that year and Bama only played 4 (and lost one). That probably played a role either directly or in the SOS metric. FWIW we have only played 2 Q4 games this year My take is if we win out in the regular season we are likely in. We're already 51 which is higher than most of the teams listed and that would probably rise as our 4 remaining games are Q1, Q2, Q2, Q3 (although @wake is borderline Q2 they probably won't be if we beat them). We also have chances for the clemson, unc, and kentucky if they are considered neutral site, to be bumped up to Q1. Lets say one of those happens. If we're ranked 40th, are 3-6, 7-0 in the Q1 Q2 that looks in to me. But again, looking at any kind of data that relies on win totals from previous years is likely going to be inaccurate. I think regardless we need to get another big win, either @VT or likely in the ACCT. And I think we really need to be pulling for UNC, Clemson, and Kentucky. [/QUOTE]
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