Bowl season slide, what's real?

[dressedcheeseside]

Since the year 2000, GT is 4 and 10 (29%) in bowl games. More to the point, since CPJ took over, we are 5 and 1, a winning percentage of 17%. This has created the notion that our chances to win are greatly reduced when our opponent has more time to prepare.

Myth or reality?

Why is this happening and is it a trend we can change? Is it merely a myth due to limited sample size?

I think there's some truth in it, which is a change for me. Imo, beating GT is less about scheme and more about the 1 on 1 personal battles. If defenders can get off blocks, they can blow plays up, as we saw in the FSU game. A month is a long time to practice cut block avoidance.

Also, our O is more dependent on timing than most other offenses. I think our timing is hurt a good bit by the long layoff. During the season, we keep our timing sharp by going against good and fast defenses week after week. During the pre-bowl layoff, not so much.

Plus we have real academic pressure during this stretch. Our opposition's practice time is more like preseason camp.

I think the combined effect is a net negative, especially for our offense.

 

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

Since the year 2000, GT is 4 and 10 (29%) in bowl games. More to the point, since CPJ took over, we are 5 and 1, a winning percentage of 17%. This has created the notion that our chances to win are greatly reduced when our opponent has more time to prepare.

Myth or reality?

Why is this happening and is it a trend we can change? Is it merely a myth due to limited sample size?

I think there's some truth in it, which is a change for me. Imo, beating GT is less about scheme and more about the 1 on 1 personal battles. If defenders can get off blocks, they can blow plays up, as we saw in the FSU game. A month is a long time to practice cut block avoidance.

Also, our O is more dependent on timing than most other offenses. I think our timing is hurt a good bit by the long layoff. During the season, we keep our timing sharp by going against good and fast defenses week after week. During the pre-bowl layoff, not so much.

Plus we have real academic pressure during this stretch. Our opposition's practice time is more like preseason camp.

I think the combined effect is a net negative, especially for our offense.

"Also, our O is more dependent on timing than most other offenses. I think our timing is hurt a good bit by the long layoff. During the season, we keep our timing sharp by going against good and fast defenses week after week. During the pre-bowl layoff, not so much."

I think that is the key more than anything. We lose our timing or rhythm after the long lay off. Although in some of those games, we did seem to get it back relatively quickly, it was just not good enough to hang on at the end. AF and Utah particularly come to mind. We seemed to do ok against SC though. Last year against Ole Miss and 2008 against LSU were the worst, although there were some additional factors last year. Timing for the most part was ok against Iowa; they just beat us with a great defense.

 

[Yaller Jacket]

I think there is definitely something to the timing question. I have seen many teams, not just us, who simply don't look like the same team in bowl games that they did at the end of the regular season.

I don't doubt there is an advantage to the extra practice time against us. There has to be. When you are as different as we are, how much can a defender learn and retain in three days of practice, compared to many? But I will add that I think we have more working against that this year than usual. JT runs it so much faster than past quarterbacks that no scout team can come close to imitating it. Plus we are running some delightful wrinkles fast too, things which work against what they practice for. The counters and mini-reverses. And of course we are throwing the ball so much better than past years. (I'm trusting with time to work on this, PJ will be able to take the healthy receivers and As and make a plan by Orange Bowl time)

 

[dressedcheeseside]

I think there is definitely something to the timing question. I have seen many teams, not just us, who simply don't look like the same team in bowl games that they did at the end of the regular season.

I don't doubt there is an advantage to the extra practice time against us. There has to be. When you are as different as we are, how much can a defender learn and retain in three days of practice, compared to many? But I will add that I think we have more working against that this year than usual. JT runs it so much faster than past quarterbacks that no scout team can come close to imitating it. Plus we are running some delightful wrinkles fast too, things which work against what they practice for. The counters and mini-reverses. And of course we are throwing the ball so much better than past years. (I'm trusting with time to work on this, PJ will be able to take the healthy receivers and As and make a plan by Orange Bowl time)

I loved that new fake toss/qb bootleg play. Wish we had run that on 4th down.

 

[UgaBlows]

it seems like we are playing higher quality opponents in our bowl games in general compared to the Gailey era.

 

[dressedcheeseside]

it seems like we are playing higher quality opponents in our bowl games in general compared to the Gailey era.

Maybe, but I still think we stood a better chance against them in season.

 

[GTRX7]

We have come out flat in a lot of our bowl games for sure (LSU, Ole Miss, etc.). Above all, the Air Force game is still the one that boggles my mind.

 

[GTRX7]

The bowl record is obviously an easy one to track. I know that, at some point, the data on GT's record in the regular season with extra time by opponents had been tracked as well. I think the Rumble Seat did it a coupe of years ago. Anyone know the current stats on that? It would also be important to compare that to the national average, which I am not sure is available. I suspect most teams do worse against teams with an extra week.

FWIW, I have also seen the stats on Paul Johnson's record with an extra week to prepare, and besides the bowl game record, it is equally if not more lopsided.

 

[dressedcheeseside]

We have come out flat in a lot of our bowl games for sure (LSU, Ole Miss, etc.). Above all, the Air Force game is still the one that boggles my mind.

Didn't want to be there and didn't respect the opponent. Neither of these will be the case this year.

 

[gtg936g]

The Utah game was the worst IMO

 

[Whiskey_Clear]

Fresno State was bad.

 

[UgaBlows]

i hope we never play Fresno or Utah again

 

[91Wreck]

I used to believe that our bowl struggles were simply of function of all the extra time opponents have to prepare for our offense. And while I still believe that is partially true, I am beginning to lean now toward another possibility. I think we struggle on offense in bowl games because our offense, more than others, is built on precision, timing, and repetition. During the long layoff between games, our offense gets "rusty". Our blocking isn't as crisp, the B-backs aren't as quick to the hole, and we are hesitant in our reads. Simply put, we don't play well because we aren't the finely tuned machine we were at the end of each season.

Here are our opponents and points scored in each bowl game:
LSU - 3
Iowa - 14
Air Force - 7
Utah - 27
USC - 21
Ole Miss - 17

I am fairly certain that in each game our opponents held us to fewer points than their average season PPG allowed - with the one exception possibly being the Utah game. I think we aren't scoring not because of what other teams are doing right defensively but what we aren't doing right offensively. And I don't think it is an easy problem to fix.

However, I have been converted. I am now a true believer in this offense. It got us 10 wins in what should have been an 8 win season at best. If the price we have to pay for that type of success is a poor showing in the bowl games, then so be it. The defense is just going to have to step up

 

[GTech63]

As long as we run run run, the opposition can prepare. We need to pass more and then we can't be stopped. We should have passed 4 or 5 more times when FSU started stopping us.
I hope the communication with Waller and/or another receiver(s) gets taken care of during this period. Really missed Smelter Saturday. Much more so than I thought we would.
Also missed Snoddy. They kept running down our AB from behind.

 

[awbuzz]

it seems like we are playing higher quality opponents in our bowl games in general compared to the Gailey era.

First thing that went through my mind too.

 

[takethepoints]

The post above has it right: when you play in bowl games, you are playing teams that are supposed to be as good as you are. That's the whole point. That you will find winning such games something of a crap shoot shouldn't surprise anybody, imho. I think our recent record has been as much a matter of the universe getting the odds back in place as anything else.

That said, I also think that our main problem in recent games has been with our D. The Utah game, of foul memory, mentioned above is illustrative: we get ahead good and solid and can't hold the lead. That was a right decent Utah outfit, but we should have won that game.

I do think that we now have a team that will do as much as humanly possible to win and I hope that continues. Whether that will mean consistent success is anyone's guess.

 

[dressedcheeseside]

As long as we run run run, the opposition can prepare. We need to pass more and then we can't be stopped. We should have passed 4 or 5 more times when FSU started stopping us.
I hope the communication with Waller and/or another receiver(s) gets taken care of during this period. Really missed Smelter Saturday. Much more so than I thought we would.
Also missed Snoddy. They kept running down our AB from behind.

When would that have been?

We only had 5 possessions in the second half and they went td, punt, int, t.o. on downs, td. We mowed through them on that first drive. The second stalled and we had to punt. At this point we've had 6 drives: 4 were dominating ground possessions that chewed clock and resulted in td's and two possessions, not in succession, that stalled and resulted in punts. Is that when you start throwing? I dunno. We still had reason to believe we could run the ball and that we stalled only twice on self inflicted mistakes. Moreover, we still needed to chew clock and play keep away. We were w/o our primary passing target and FSU has a really good secondary.

How 'bout the next drive? We get the ball down 6, we need to score and chew clock but we are not in desperation mode. I guess this is the time to try some play action, but remember our qb/wr chemistry is suspect, no Smelter, no Zenon at this point and really good FSU secondary.

 

[DTGT]

As long as we run run run, the opposition can prepare. We need to pass more and then we can't be stopped. We should have passed 4 or 5 more times when FSU started stopping us.
I hope the communication with Waller and/or another receiver(s) gets taken care of during this period. Really missed Smelter Saturday. Much more so than I thought we would.
Also missed Snoddy. They kept running down our AB from behind.

The pass is used when the D is cheating to stop the run. They were not cheating. Why would pass when they are respecting the threat to pass?

 

[MWBATL]

As long as we run run run, the opposition can prepare. We need to pass more and then we can't be stopped. We should have passed 4 or 5 more times when FSU started stopping us.
I hope the communication with Waller and/or another receiver(s) gets taken care of during this period. Really missed Smelter Saturday. Much more so than I thought we would.
Also missed Snoddy. They kept running down our AB from behind.

This. The reason our O was so good this year is because of the passing threat that JT-to-Smelter represented. With Smelter gone, we lost that and FSU was able to make *just* enough plays in run D to stop us in the 2nd half and beat us.

Whatever happens in the bowl game, JT MUST develop good chemistry and communication with our receivers for next year.

 

[Squints]

Above all, the Air Force game is still the one that boggles my mind.

Back up QB. Starting WR and starting punt returner suspended the week before the game (I think maybe a few others?). Back-up punt retuner muffs two punt returns robbing us of two offensive possessions and directly led to their two touchdowns. It's not that surprising when you think about it.