Best offense in the country, #100 defense, #22 overall

[yellojello]

I like the way you restated that to be "any school".

You're right. Seems like I misinterpreted Longesdays post to mean that no school has been successful changing head coaches. Turns out on finer parsing, that he was probably referring just to GT.

A case can certainly be made that there is no evidence that changing head coaches every 6-7 years had produced any significant change for GT. If one were to take that view, we would stick with one coach for a longer period based on "If we keep doing what we're doing, we'll keep getting what we are getting".

I, for one, would be perfectly able to accept that rationale for keeping CPJ. Chane for change's sake is rampant in our corporate culture. I definitely don't support that.

I think you can look at the trend of the school and fire the school. Changing head coaches has not produced a championship team or a significantly different record with the only logical constant being the school.

 

[Yoda]

Groh's 3-4 scheme is a pro-style, and competes for the same players that Alabama and other factories use, putting a premium on big DT's and NT's.

Tenuta's scheme might be one that fits for tough recruiting situations, but he wasn't short on talent while he was here. Maybe schemes like Joe Lee Dunn used at Mississippi State would fit--he was doing crazy stuff. I think Wommack was trying to come up with an unusual scheme when he was here. and the 4-2.5 is primarily what Roof is running.

Joe Lee Dunn reference. Awesome!!

 

[bravejason]

What is CPJ supposed to do beyond supporting his DC and firing them when the results aren't acceptable?

Should he name himself the DC and name Cook or Sewak as the OC to run the offense (or scrape the offense altogether and hire an OC to install and run everyone's favorite pass-first shotgun spread)?

In retrospect, after firing Womack maybe he would have done better to hire a coach that ran a 4-3 or similar defense because the shift in personnel requirements and associated shift in recruiting empahasis seems to have hurt the depth a bit as the team has veered from 4-3 to 3-4 and back to 4-3 (at the risk of oversimplifying, I'm assuming that 4-2-5 and 4-3 aren't much different from a personnel standpoint).

I give CPJ some leeway on the defense because I see him trying his best to find a DC that can install and run a defense appropriate for GT. I don't see how getting rid of CPJ makes a difference in fixing the defense. For that to make a difference, I think you would have to believe that either CPJ or his offense is negatively impacting defensive recruiting or the ability to hire defensive coaches to such an extent that either CPJ or the offense is a net cost to team. If that truly is the case, then that is a shame.

 

[dressedcheeseside]

I've always said recruiting football players to GT is a puzzle unlike anywhere else in the nation. There are certain unique advantages and disadvantages, but mostly disadvantages. Coaches should be given more time to figure it out than they would at a factory. What's the magic number, I don't know. I think there's a combination of things that present themselves eventually that let you know it's not only not working now, but probably not ever going to work. We are certainly not there now.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

I don't buy that Roof is CPJ's last chance at hiring a good D coord, and i'm not giving up on Roof, he deserves to get his players and his coaches in place, he needs a longer chance than 2 years before we declare him the next Wommack or Groh. How many D-coord's has Richt been through now?

Hope you are right. One of my biggest fears is that CPJ has not been able to get the defensive coordinator that he really wanted (due to systemic issues with the Institution) and has had to settle for getting the best one he could find in the bargain bin.

 

[Jean-Baptiste Rochambeau]

Hope you are right. One of my biggest fears is that CPJ has not been able to get the defensive coordinator that he really wanted (due to systemic issues with the Institution) and has had to settle for getting the best one he could find in the bargain bin.

The price was right, and we got a Tech man on staff, just in case.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

I don't buy that Roof is CPJ's last chance at hiring a good D coord, and i'm not giving up on Roof, he deserves to get his players and his coaches in place, he needs a longer chance than 2 years before we declare him the next Wommack or Groh. How many D-coord's has Richt been through now?

I agree with you - Roof should stay for two more years to see how next year's class plays out next year and the year after. He is a great recruiter ..... look at who is coming in next year.

We knew D didn't have as much talent as we would like and have 5 true Fr playing (1st and 2nd string).

The only thing that bothers me is how our D players like to hit and don't wrap up. The hits look better but the O player bounces off and keeps on going. If we were getting a lot of fumbles, that would be different. But we have forced _____ to date. {Hint: look at 90th http://www.cfbstats.com/2014/leader/national/team/offense/split01/category22/sort01.html}

 

[GTNavyNuke]

The price was right, and we got a Tech man on staff, just in case.

For the record, I hope and think that Roof will turn things around on D. The fact that he is a Tech man and captain of the Black Watch goes a long way with me.

I don't think we got him "cheap" and I think he has / had lots of other opportunities after what he has done including most recently at Penn State.

 

[TechPhi97]

Not true. See Duke for example or if that's not enough of a trend, see Baylor. For that matter, see Alabama. What hasn't changed is those school's recruiting rankings. The right HC can change a lot. I'm not saying CPJ isn't the right HC. But I refuse to have blind allegiance to a coach. My allegiance is to GT and GT alone.

Baylor has brought in a bunch of JUCOs, right? I mean, they have no academic standards.

 

[ilovetheoption]

FTR, FEI has updated to include this week's games.

GT is still #1 in offense (although less historically great)
GT is now #85 in defense (turnovers help you win games, and are good, it turns out)
GT is now #15 overall

 

[dressedcheeseside]

FTR, FEI has updated to include this week's games.

GT is still #1 in offense (although less historically great)
GT is now #85 in defense (turnovers help you win games, and are good, it turns out)
GT is now #15 overall

Imagine if we just had a bad defense (top 50ish)....

 

[mmbt0ne]

#4 offense in adjusted yards per play
#164 defense in adjusted yards per play (#115 if you exclude FCS teams)


Season-long O/D ratings of our Opponents
186/116 - Wofford
147/68 - Tulane
15/92 - Ga Southern
140/20 - Virginia Tech
9/6 - Miami
81/77 - Duke
40/118 - UNC
52/50 - Pitt
84/35 - UVA
44/70 - NC State
76/2 - Clemson
6/21 - UGA

Out of the ~1,000 games played this season, our single-game O/D ratings compared to every other D-I game are:

O / D - Opponent
74 / 863 - Wofford
462 / 745 - Tulane
140 / 840 - Ga Southern
99 / 766 - Virginia Tech
174 / 710 - Miami
165 / 497 - Duke
33 / 593 - UNC
19 / 885 - Pitt

So all of our offensive games except 1 have been in the top 20% of offensive ratings, and half of our games have been in the top 10%. Our worst game is still better than average. Also, the offense appears to be improving.

Our defense, however, has only had one game approaching average (49th percentile against Duke) and all but 2 of our games have been in the bottom 30%. Unlike the offense, the defense has not been improving the last few games.

 

[ibeattetris]

On the football outsiders FEI, could someone try explaining to me how the final "opponent adjusted" score is calculated? From what I see, our unadjusted score, while great, it pretty far behind Oregon. The strength of schedule rating is only one thousandth of a point better. Then after the opponent adjustment, our final OFEI sky rockets passed everyone.

What am I missing here?

 

[mmbt0ne]

My guess is that Pitt, VT, and Miami are all pretty darn good defenses, and even UNC isn't absolutely terrible (although they're the worst by aYPP that we've played or will play)

Oregon has played 3 teams with defenses worse than UNC. Their average opponent has been ranked 101st in aYPP defense, ours has been ranked 68th.

Now, if they put up yards and points on Stanford (#1 defense) expect that difference to change a fair bit. At least until we roll #2 Clemson.

 

[ibeattetris]

Is that what the "OSOS" column is supposed it calculate? If so, ours and Oregon's are nearly identical. After going over the data again though, I think there has to be more involved with the adjustments than pure strength of schedule (which I initially assumed was the main data used for adjustment).

 

[ilovetheoption]

My understanding is that the adjustment washes out garbage time scores and end of half kneeldowns and such.

 

[AE 87]

@ibeattetris OK, here's the answer I think, and I failed to appreciate it before you asked.

They only count competitive drives. Since our D is so bad, our games have been more competitive and have had more drives counted. I'm not sure how, but I reckon it has something to do with that.

 

[ibeattetris]

@ibeattetris OK, here's the answer I think, and I failed to appreciate it before you asked.

They only count competitive drives. Since our D is so bad, our games have been more competitive and have had more drives counted. I'm not sure how, but I reckon it has something to do with that.

I like your reasoning, and I think that must be it. I had assumed the OE rating had already taken into account the garbage drives based on this quote from the page,

All drives are filtered to eliminate first-half clock-kills and end-of-game garbage drives and scores. A scoring rate analysis of the remaining possessions then determines the baseline possession efficiency expectations against which each team is measured.

Based on that, I had just assumed the garbage drives were never considered. It would definitely help things make more sense if that were not the case.

 

[GT Man]

The thing is, ATL1 is right, he DOES own the defense. He's the head coach, not the offensive coordinator. I'm a huge Paul Johnson fan , he's the reason I follow Georgia Tech now, but I'm not going to act like the defense isn't his responsibility in the end.

But do you fire a HC who runs the best offense in the nation over it?

 

[OldJacketFan]

But do you fire a HC who runs the best offense in the nation over it?

No, you don't.