Being "10 points away"

gtphd

Jolly Good Fellow
Messages
160
Yes and no....if you shoot 80 playing only once a week or less w/out practicing, you can close the gap if you want to and shoot 70. Maybe not consistently but every now and again. However, if you play and practice on a daily basis and have gotten lessons, then yes....that 10 shot difference is exponential. I think the larger point is that our staff has done the latter....they cannot do wmore work to get the 10 point differential. The question remains, where does it come from and is it possible.
The better example is that if you’re a 30-handicap golfer, 10 strokes will be easier to find than if you’re a scratch golfer.

Being ranked 106th in the country is the equivalent of having a 30 handicap.
 

slugboy

Moderator
Staff member
Messages
6,380
Yes, I'm geeking out. Time to go play backyard football.

Bigger better trend data. The real one to look at is point differential:

YearFBS Scoring Defense RankFBS Scoring Defense PointsFBS Scoring Offense RankFBS Scoring Offense PointsFBS Scoring Differential RankFBS Scoring Differential Points
2021​
107​
34​
87​
24.3​
103​
-9.7​
2020​
106​
36.8​
92​
23.9​
107​
-12.9​
2019​
98​
32.9​
125​
16​
117​
-16.9​
2018​
85​
31.8​
27​
33​
61​
1.3​
2017​
69​
28.2​
69​
27.2​
73​
-1​
2016​
41​
25.7​
66​
27.7​
55​
2​
2015​
60​
27.5​
79​
25.6​
74​
-1.9​
2014​
50​
26.2​
12​
37.8​
15​
11.6​
2013​
56​
26.4​
59​
29.1​
56​
2.7​
2012​
72​
30.2​
40​
31.6​
59​
1.4​
2011​
58​
26.5​
27​
31.9​
35​
5.4​
2010​
57​
26.5​
71​
24.8​
67​
-1.8​
2009​
53​
25.4​
14​
33.5​
27​
8.2​
2008​
34​
22.1​
63​
24.2​
50​
2.1​
2007​
22​
21.4​
88​
22.7​
53​
1.3​
2006​
29​
19.3​
52​
23.9​
40​
4.6​
2005​
22​
20.1​
102​
18.5​
69​
-1.6​
2004​
25​
20​
84​
21.5​
53​
1.5​
2003​
26​
20.5​
86​
21.1​
55​
0.6​

Point differential over time (we were a buzzsaw several times over the past 20 years, but we fell off a cliff in 2019. We're improving, but we dug ourselves a HUGE hole):
1637866455695.png


Here's our rank (boy, we look good in 2014):
1637866580963.png


Here's our offense over time. 2014 pops up again:
1637866644437.png


And scoring offense rank (you want to be LOW, LOW, LOW):
1637866694766.png
 

bobongo

Helluva Engineer
Messages
3,659
Yes, I'm geeking out. Time to go play backyard football.

Bigger better trend data. The real one to look at is point differential:

YearFBS Scoring Defense RankFBS Scoring Defense PointsFBS Scoring Offense RankFBS Scoring Offense PointsFBS Scoring Differential RankFBS Scoring Differential Points
2021​
107​
34​
87​
24.3​
103​
-9.7​
2020​
106​
36.8​
92​
23.9​
107​
-12.9​
2019​
98​
32.9​
125​
16​
117​
-16.9​
2018​
85​
31.8​
27​
33​
61​
1.3​
2017​
69​
28.2​
69​
27.2​
73​
-1​
2016​
41​
25.7​
66​
27.7​
55​
2​
2015​
60​
27.5​
79​
25.6​
74​
-1.9​
2014​
50​
26.2​
12​
37.8​
15​
11.6​
2013​
56​
26.4​
59​
29.1​
56​
2.7​
2012​
72​
30.2​
40​
31.6​
59​
1.4​
2011​
58​
26.5​
27​
31.9​
35​
5.4​
2010​
57​
26.5​
71​
24.8​
67​
-1.8​
2009​
53​
25.4​
14​
33.5​
27​
8.2​
2008​
34​
22.1​
63​
24.2​
50​
2.1​
2007​
22​
21.4​
88​
22.7​
53​
1.3​
2006​
29​
19.3​
52​
23.9​
40​
4.6​
2005​
22​
20.1​
102​
18.5​
69​
-1.6​
2004​
25​
20​
84​
21.5​
53​
1.5​
2003​
26​
20.5​
86​
21.1​
55​
0.6​

Point differential over time (we were a buzzsaw several times over the past 20 years, but we fell off a cliff in 2019. We're improving, but we dug ourselves a HUGE hole):
View attachment 11696

Here's our rank (boy, we look good in 2014):
View attachment 11697

Here's our offense over time. 2014 pops up again:
View attachment 11698

And scoring offense rank (you want to be LOW, LOW, LOW):
View attachment 11699
By the time Ugag gets through with us, we'll be back down around the 2019 level. No progress, after all. None, zero.
 

iceeater1969

Helluva Engineer
Messages
6,836
Graphs are pretty and when we are shown as grossly bad they are correct.
Why are we so bad requires looking at factors.
1. Defense backs are confused and possibly way over rated.
2. Defensive coaches dont adjust .
3. Offense cant adjust and gets worse as game goes on.
4. We are playing against Top qbs. Checking the qb ratings u find that ACC qbs are racking up huge ratings .
Qbs at Miami, uva, unc, pit are doing great. If we could normalize these qb back to the mean , we would only be a bad defense instead of a terrible defense.

Next year we will improve because these very good qbs will be gone.
 

UgaBlows

Helluva Engineer
Messages
4,763
Thanks for this. I think.

Here is the problem for me with the “ten point measurement.” Ten points sounds doable as an abstract number. But that’s not real life on a football field. How much extra effort and execution does it take to add even a couple of extra points to a margin in a game?

Let’s throw out another hypothetical for measuring a 10 point swing. For Tech to get a 10 point swing in each game would require each staff person putting in an extra 12 hours a week in game preparation and/or each player doing an extra hour a day of conditioning and/or picking up an average four additional 4 star players with each recruiting class and/or hiring an additional staff member just to do game management.

I know this is an arbitrary list of requirements to get that extra 10 points but it is far more arbitrary to throw out 10 points like it is something that can magically happen without a LOT more effort.
Or maybe it would require a staff of ex-coaches analyzing film
 

RamblinRed

Helluva Engineer
Featured Member
Messages
4,657
By the time Ugag gets through with us, we'll be back down around the 2019 level. No progress, after all. None, zero.
Hopefully it will be somewhat better than that, but if we lose by the spread then we are basically at the same differential as last year. If we lose by more than the spread then we will start dipping below last year and if we lose by a margin similar to Clemson 2019 then we are basically back at 2019 levels.

Don't judge a season until it is finished but most of the first 11 chapters have been fairly ugly and the last chapter as the potential to be the worst yet.
 

BainbridgeJacket

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
836
Hey, a standard deviation of improvement on both offense and defense would get us to >+10 other differential. Flip the script and go 9-3. How to get that improvement, though, especially for a defense that has sucked so bad for so long and under so many coordinators. That's a doozie.
 

bobongo

Helluva Engineer
Messages
3,659
Hey, a standard deviation of improvement on both offense and defense would get us to >+10 other differential. Flip the script and go 9-3. How to get that improvement, though, especially for a defense that has sucked so bad for so long and under so many coordinators. That's a doozie.
We could start by bringing back the one who was DC when the defense didn't suck. But the conventional wisdom says no, so we can't.
 

slugboy

Moderator
Staff member
Messages
6,380
Hey, a standard deviation of improvement on both offense and defense would get us to >+10 other differential. Flip the script and go 9-3. How to get that improvement, though, especially for a defense that has sucked so bad for so long and under so many coordinators. That's a doozie.

Correct.
We only need to move the offense from “below average” to “good and reliable” and the defense from “bottom 30” to “slightly above average” in one season, and we’re cooking.

No Problem Anthony Oneal GIF by Ramsey Solutions
 

slugboy

Moderator
Staff member
Messages
6,380
Until after Saturday’s game…then the numbers will match up or be worse. Of course they were lucky enough last year in avoiding the uga game.

We're at #110 in scoring defense after Saturday
RankNameGTDFG1XP2XPSafetyPointsPoints/G
110​
Georgia Tech
12​
50​
17​
47​
2​
0​
402​
33.5​

We fell to #96 in Scoring Offense
RankNameGTDFG1XP2XPSafetyPointsPoints/G
96​
Georgia Tech
12​
36​
11​
31​
3​
1​
288​
24​

and #111 in point differential (bottom 20 teams) at -129 points per game
1638198492211.png


We ended up flat from last year
1638198663033.png
 

Ash

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
727
Offensively, all we would have had to do was extend a drive or two, or put the ball in the endzone when inside the 20 to get your 10 points. I lost count of how many times we stalled aout when we needed a score to shift momentum or take control of a game. We were constantly losing field position. We had to punt inside the 40 on Sat.
 

LongforDodd

Helluva Engineer
Messages
2,142
It may not necessarily require more effort from our players, just better coaches.
Granted, coaching might have put our DB's in the position they were in (again, might have) but was it coaching that caused several on Chat Saturday to say STTE "that MF'er TE outran our entire secondary"? Did they mention it was a TE that did that to our DB's on that 77 TD run after the catch?
 

slugboy

Moderator
Staff member
Messages
6,380
Great write-up @slugboy ! Looks like we are more like 15 points away at a minimum to have a slightly winning season and 20 to compete for division championships again
We're farther below break even now than we were above break even in 2014.

@Ash I think the first fraction of points is easier to make up than the last fraction. To be down this low, you have to be actively shooting yourself in the foot.
 

Yaller Jacket

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
908
Except for the last two games, we had a respectable number of total yards and first downs. Almost every game if you looked at our numbers for those two, you would assume we had scored about 36 points. But our actual number was more like 24. To me, that was a direct result of our o-line being unable to get any push inside the 20. And our insistence on calling smash the line plays when we had seen dozens of times we couldn't get any push.
 

g0lftime

Helluva Engineer
Messages
3,130
The stats for 3 consecutive years ending up in tht 100's on defense and not much better on offense says our problems were more than just the players. We're near the bottom all those years with different players but the same coaches. Decent hires should show improvement. Just to remind everyone that the same OC and DC at Temple in 2018 against Duke gave up over 50 in the bowl game. Temple was playing with mostly Rhule's players and were starting a decline even under Collins. Navy just beat them soundly.

I expect improvement. Just don't wear those silly capes again or lift weights on the sidelines.
 
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