Analytics post mortem

[iceeater1969]

Our FEI and SP+ ratings are still terrible. It’s the stats equivalent of Finebaum’s “middling team”. This will take a while to change.

Rk​	Team	Rec​	FBS​	FEI​		OFEI​	Rk​	DFEI​	Rk​	SFEI​	Rk​
59​	Georgia Tech​	1-0​	1-0​	.03​		.08​	30​	-.01​	86​	-.05​	10​

More of long term average like a tree ring that measures long term teperature.

 

[GT33]

Still, we face a ludicrous schedule

I love our schedule. We need to have all interesting match ups, play the top OOC teams as much as we can. Beating up on small schools is boring and too “SEC” for me.

 

[HurricaneJacket]

Why? Both holding calls were blatant.

Cause it came immediately after the weak PI call

 

[TechPhi97]

Our FEI and SP+ ratings are still terrible. It’s the stats equivalent of Finebaum’s “middling team”. This will take a while to change.

Rk​	Team	Rec​	FBS​	FEI​		OFEI​	Rk​	DFEI​	Rk​	SFEI​	Rk​
59​	Georgia Tech​	1-0​	1-0​	.03​		.08​	30​	-.01​	86​	-.05​	10​

These rely on other games being played to become useful, I think. You need to give it 3-4 games and let some conference games happen before you can tell anything. FEI is most useful for explaining what happened and why, not for predicting the future.

 

[Jacket05]

Reffing is always seen through home colored glasses.
FSU fans think the officiating was horrible and that GT should have been called for alot more penalties - specifically holding on the OL.

Not saying I agree with them. I thought overall it was a pretty well officiated game.

The refs were mostly consistent between the teams in not throwing flags and letting them play.

The biggest thing I saw was the missed PI on Rutherford (IIRC) on the 3rd down vs the soft PI call against us when it was typical hand fighting. I addition, I think the facemask penalty against Height was a little soft too and they missed basically the same facemask on Haynes a drive or 2 later.

That being said I know I am more focused on the impact to us so I still think overall it was fairly officiated. Which is a very uncomfortable statement to say cause I feel like we are usually screwed by the refs in most games.

 

[stinger78]

It’s easy to focus in on refs’ mistakes. There are three sources of mistakes in any refereed contest: players, coaches, and refs. Player mistakes and coaching mistakes were by far more consequential in this particular game, IMPO.

 

[GTJackets]

It’s easy to focus in on refs’ mistakes. There are three sources of mistakes in any refereed contest: players, coaches, and refs. Player mistakes and coaching mistakes were by far more consequential in this particular game, IMPO.

Danny Kannell disagrees



***edited to add this classic reply in the comments of the above twitter/x post

 

[FlatsLander]

Danny Kannell disagrees



***edited to add this classic reply in the comments of the above twitter/x post

I thought that if you're being tackled while you go out of bounds, the out of bounds is ignored and the clock still runs. You have to go out of bounds on your own power to stop the clock.

 

[CEB]

I thought that if you're being tackled while you go out of bounds, the out of bounds is ignored and the clock still runs. You have to go out of bounds on your own power to stop the clock.

I am not sure about that interpretation, but another angle would almost certainly show his knees down in bounds before the elbow, regardless.

 

[stinger78]

I am not sure about that interpretation, but another angle would almost certainly show his knees down in bounds before the elbow, regardless.

This is my thought. His knee was down inbounds. I think the new rule states that if a runner goes out of bounds prior to his forward progress being stopped, and within the final 2 minutes of a half, the clock restarts on the next snap.

The call could have been forward progress stopped in bounds or, most likely, his knee touched in bounds.

 

[dmurdock]

{Duplicate Post from the FSU Post Game thread}
Didn't see this posted anywhere, but here are links for PFF Grades from Jackson Caudell:
Offense: https://www.si.com/college/georgiat...y-georgia-tech-player-on-offense-01j64ybkfrmr
Defense: https://www.si.com/college/georgiat...y-georgia-tech-player-on-defense-01j650d06yg6

I don't know the ins and outs of a good PFF Grade, so I looked more at the snap count distribution.

• Starters at LG, C, RG, RT played every offensive snap. LT was a 28/24 split, so pretty much our Depth Chart with no backups seeing the field for this game.
• Biggers and Height each had 39 snaps out of 58 to lead the DL. Seven different DL had more than 20 snaps and we played 9 total. Is that depth on the DL
• Biggers was our lowest rated DL while LaMiles was our lowest rated DB. Found that interesting.
• Pyron had a higher PFF Grade than King. Are we starting the right QB?

 

[CuseJacket]

 

[roadkill]

Based on the chart against FBS, we have a good offense and an average defense. Isn't that what we've been begging for?

 

[stinger78]

Based on the chart against FBS, we have a good offense and an average defense. Isn't that what we've been begging for?

Yup

 

[slugboy]

From Kelly Ford (https://kfordratings.com/schedule-difficulty) this gets updated on Monday and will change soon.

Schedule still tough

We are up to 35 on his ranking

We project mid-pack ACC, mainly because we have all the tough teams but Clemson, and none of the weakest

Our shot at a bowl game looks pretty good right now

If we beat Syracuse, we’re in really good shape. Last year’s numbers still bias everything (VT and UNC are probably overrated)

 

[yoshiki2]

I think we were a good bit under rated and F$U a bit over rated especially with the different personnel starting off this season.

I would have liked for us to face Jordan Travis. He was FSU soul. There's not way GA would beat them up that badly if he had played that game.

 

[Root4GT]

From Kelly Ford (https://kfordratings.com/schedule-difficulty) this gets updated on Monday and will change soon.

Schedule still tough

We are up to 35 on his ranking

We project mid-pack ACC, mainly because we have all the tough teams but Clemson, and none of the weakest

Our shot at a bowl game looks pretty good right now

If we beat Syracuse, we’re in really good shape. Last year’s numbers still bias everything (VT and UNC are probably overrated)

 

[slugboy]

HK in upper right

 

[slugboy]

If you’re wondering when we’ll get respect in the rankings, my guess we better keep winning for a while. Sagarin has their Predictor and other ratings, but they’re heavily influenced by previous records. They also have a “Recent” and “Strong Recent” rating. In the regular rankings, we’re ranked in the 50’s. Even “Recent” is the same, but in Strong Recent we’re #18.

So, what people (and stats models) are waiting to settle out is whether we’re the team they’ve seen the last two games, or the team they’ve seen the last five years.

(Granddaddy of the stats models http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm)

				RATING		W	L	SCHEDL(RANK)	VS	top	10	|	VS	top	30	|	PREDICTOR		|	GOLDEN_MEAN	|	RECENT			|	STRONG	RECENT
	HOME ADVANT	AGE	=[	2.45	]											[	2.45]			[ 2.45]	[	2.45	]			[ 2.45	]
51	North Carolina	A	=	73.71		0	0	0.00( 0)		0	0	|		0	0	|	73.75	51	|	73.68 51	|	73.69		51	|	73.69	51	ACC			(A)
52	Arkansas	A	=	73.26		0	0	0.00( 0)		0	0	|		0	0	|	73.30	52	|	73.23 53	|	73.24		53	|	73.24	52	SEC			(A)
53	Cincinnati	A	=	73.24		0	0	0.00( 0)		0	0	|		0	0	|	73.28	53	|	73.21 54	|	73.22		54	|	73.22	53	BIG	12		(A)
54	Appalachian State	A	=	73.12		0	0	0.00( 0)		0	0	|		0	0	|	73.15	54	|	73.09 55	|	73.10		55	|	73.10	54	SUN	BELT	EAST	(A)
55	Georgia Tech	A	=	72.96		1	0	83.11( 1)		0	0	|		1	0	|	72.17	60	|	73.25 52	|	73.48		52	|	83.21	18	ACC			(A)
56	Minnesota	A	=	72.69		0	0	0.00( 0)		0	0	|		0	0	|	72.73	55	|	72.66 56	|	72.67		56	|	72.67	55	BIG	TEN		(A)
57	UCLA	A	=	72.50		0	0	0.00( 0)		0	0	|		0	0	|	72.54	56	|	72.47 57	|	72.48		57	|	72.48	56	BIG	TEN		(A)
58	Illinois	A	=	72.40		0	0	0.00( 0)		0	0	|		0	0	|	72.44	57	|	72.37 58	|	72.38		58	|	72.38	57	BIG	TEN		(A)
59	Syracuse	A	=	72.30		0	0	0.00( 0)		0	0	|		0	0	|	72.34	58	|	72.27 59	|	72.28		59	|	72.28	58	ACC			(A)
60	Liberty	A	=	72.17		0	0	0.00( 0)		0	0	|		0	0	|	72.21	59	|	72.14 60	|	72.15		60	|	72.15	59	CONF	-USA		(A)

 

[slugboy]

Post week 1 QBRs (not opponent adjusted)** from https://www.espn.com/college-football/qbr/_/group/1

Kyle McCord put up numbers against Ohio

RK	NAME	QBR	PAA	PLAYS	EPA	PASS	RUN	SACK	PEN	RAW
1	Cam Ward MIA	95.7	12.2	40	11.1	8.3	2.1	-0.2	1.0	96.0
2	Tyler Shough LOU	83.3	6.8	25	5.1	5.3	0.0	-0.2	0.0	94.5
3	Kyle McCord SYR	82.1	8.4	45	9.3	10.6	-0.5	-0.7	-0.1	87.4
4	Anthony Colandrea UVA	77.8	8.6	36	6.0	5.9	1.2	-1.2	0.0	92.3
5	DJ Uiagalelei FSU	77.7	4.9	35	6.6	7.2	-0.2	-0.7	0.3	81.1
6	Haynes King GT	76.5	6.9	69	8.7	8.7	0.4	0.0	-0.5	73.9
7	Hank Bachmeier WAKE	64.0	5.7	33	5.1	5.4	0.6	-0.7	-0.2	85.9
8	Preston Stone SMU	60.2	4.4	50	5.7	4.6	1.5	0.0	-0.2	71.4
9	Fernando Mendoza CAL	59.3	3.9	25	4.6	4.8	0.5	-0.6	-0.1	83.3
10	Kyron Drones VT	58.1	0.8	52	3.0	5.4	-1.0	-1.2	-0.3	53.8
11	Eli Holstein PITT	54.6	5.0	47	5.7	6.3	1.1	-1.6	-0.1	75.3
12	Grayson McCall NCSU	48.8	5.4	47	7.6	8.2	-0.1	-0.7	0.2	76.6
13	Cade Klubnik CLEM	40.8	-4.9	37	-2.1	-0.1	-1.3	-0.7	0.0	20.2
14	Max Johnson UNC	37.0	-2.6	28	-1.2	-2.9	2.2	-1.0	0.5	27.6
15	Maalik Murphy DUKE	34.2	2.3	42	3.2	3.1	0.0	0.0	0.1	64.0
16	Ashton Daniels STAN	12.5	-11.5	54	-8.3	-4.2	-2.1	-2.9	0.9	9.8

** (edit) doh! It is opponent adjusted