Analytics post mortem

UgaBlows

UgaBlows

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wreckrod said:
It’s not very analytical but one thing that stood out to me was it seemed like every 50/50 call went FSU’s way. They benefitted tremendously from a few critically timed penalties. Without the face mask, that’s a stop with a punt. Same thing later for the weak sauce PI call. And I really thought FSU benefitted from a ton of holding non-calls.
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I thought the PI call against Brooks was total BS
 

CEB

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GT33 said:
you thought that because it was BS
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While we’re at it, there was a third down in the 3rd quarter where we threw a quick slant. Ball was thrown well, receiver broke well, defender had his legs wrapped up before the ball got there. I felt like that one could’ve (should’ve) been called.

Overall, FSU did not execute well, but they didn’t make mistakes. WE actually made the mistakes and overcame them.
- 2 fumbles
- 2 drive extending defensive penalties
- missed FG (although it was long)

Without finding statistical confirmation I think we had more penalties for more yards. The only ones I remember for them were a couple of holds on the pass rush.

At any rate… we looked like the better team and a couple of our mistakes gave them chances. Going in, I would not have thought we would fare well if you told me FSU would be largely mistake free.
 
HurricaneJacket

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wreckrod said:
It’s not very analytical but one thing that stood out to me was it seemed like every 50/50 call went FSU’s way. They benefitted tremendously from a few critically timed penalties. Without the face mask, that’s a stop with a punt. Same thing later for the weak sauce PI call. And I really thought FSU benefitted from a ton of holding non-calls.
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The one holding call they had felt like a make-up call for the PI
 

RamblinRed

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Reffing is always seen through home colored glasses.
FSU fans think the officiating was horrible and that GT should have been called for alot more penalties - specifically holding on the OL.

Not saying I agree with them. I thought overall it was a pretty well officiated game.
 
slugboy

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I went through this video. It was posted or recorded on the Friday before we played FSU. There’s also an interview with David Hale about the ACC, but the sound at that point has a huge amount of echo.



It’s a good point in time for a comparison:
  1. We were getting some credit that our offense could get a little better.
  2. I do not think the model factors in a year of improvement by the OL, which already improved dramatically in year 1.
  3. We were getting zero credit that we could field a competent defense.
  4. SMU is considered borderline top-25. They didn’t look good in their game against Nevada Saturday.
  5. DJU is supposed to be a good thrower and a running weapon. He’s supposed to make the occasional head-scratching mistake. He was not much of a factor Saturday. Either Norvell didn’t use him well, or we neutralized him.
  6. Mike Norvell is supposed to be a very good offensive coach.
  7. We’re not considered good at developing our players.
  8. A lot of this is tendencies over the past 5 seasons.
    1. We’ve had a horrible defense for more than a decade—why would an outsider think it would get better?
    2. We showed that we improved our OL last year and I think we make Haynes King a better QB. The secondary was looking good. Maybe it’s a numbers game vs our recruiting and lack of results during the Collins years of pulling in high recruiting rankings for 3 wins, but we get no credit for developing players. We’re ranked about 105 out of 131 teams in player development. I think this is completely biased by the Collins years.

We should look and see what the other ACC teams look like next week. Clemson has a big matchup against UGA, and their QB needs to have a monster game for them to win. FSU is going to either have a long season, or they’re going to take out their frustrations on BC.


Here’s a big IF—and it’s really BIG—IF FSU is as good as their preseason ratings, and we were playing up to that level, then other teams should be very scared of us.

There’s probably some degree of FSU being overrated and us being very underrated. We’ll know more in three weeks. We need to win solidly this weekend, and then again against VMI and Syracuse.
 
AE 87

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We really did beat them pretty well in everything but the score.

As most of you know, I focus on points/drive vs power 5 (now 4?). By this stat, our D was not that great (as @CuseJacket said), allowing 3/drive (or 2.86 since I don't count 2pt conversions). Our OffPPD was very good at 3.43 ppd. So, those numbers suggest really good Off and really poor Def for both teams.

However, over the years, I've also been playing with whether another simpler stat might have similar evaluative significance, and the short answer is I haven't found one that's been completely persuasive to me. Still, one that's been interesting has been offensive and defensive yards/play. In Saturday's game, we averaged 6.46 yards/play and allowed FSU 5.02 yards/play.

If we look at last season's end of season stats for games against power 5 competition, 6.46 ypp would have been #13 and 5.02 ypp allowed would have been #24 (which was FSU last year).

So, as has been said, the short answer for the disconnect is the two 50+ FG's and two converted 4th and 7+.

FWIW, I think there is a lot to the off handed comparison to last year's Duke vs Klemp'skid game. Elite DC preparing for a good team with a new offense.

I think the season will show that both GT and FSU are good. I think we out-schemed a talented but under-prepared team who will get better over the season.

Peace @dressedcheeseside but that's my 2cents
 
forensicbuzz

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AE 87 said:
We really did beat them pretty well in everything but the score.

As most of you know, I focus on points/drive vs power 5 (now 4?). By this stat, our D was not that great (as @CuseJacket said), allowing 3/drive (or 2.86 since I don't count 2pt conversions). Our OffPPD was very good at 3.43 ppd. So, those numbers suggest really good Off and really poor Def for both teams.

However, over the years, I've also been playing with whether another simpler stat might have similar evaluative significance, and the short answer is I haven't found one that's been completely persuasive to me. Still, one that's been interesting has been offensive and defensive yards/play. In Saturday's game, we averaged 6.46 yards/play and allowed FSU 5.02 yards/play.

If we look at last season's end of season stats for games against power 5 competition, 6.46 ypp would have been #13 and 5.02 ypp allowed would have been #24 (which was FSU last year).

So, as has been said, the short answer for the disconnect is the two 50+ FG's and two converted 4th and 7+.

FWIW, I think there is a lot to the off handed comparison to last year's Duke vs Klemp'skid game. Elite DC preparing for a good team with a new offense.

I think the season will show that both GT and FSU are good. I think we out-schemed a talented but under-prepared team who will get better over the season.

Peace @dressedcheeseside but that's my 2cents
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And that's with a phantom PI to extend a drive and a freak facemask penalty to extend another. If we could have stopped either 4th and long, that would have been another series, but that's on the defense. The other two weren't really.
 
slugboy

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CuseJacket said:
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That makes our defensive performance look a lot better.

We brought more chaos than I’ve seen in a while. Also, the recovered fumble was worth 5 expected points—the difference in the game

IMG_0372.jpeg
 
slugboy

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Our FEI and SP+ ratings are still terrible. It’s the stats equivalent of Finebaum’s “middling team”. This will take a while to change.

Rk​
Team
Rec​
FBS​
FEI​
OFEI​
Rk​
DFEI​
Rk​
SFEI​
Rk​
59​
Georgia Tech​
1-0​
1-0​
.03​
.08​
30​
-.01​
86​
-.05​
10​
 
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