Analytics in Coaching

[Thwg777]

The awful decision by Key to not accept a penalty to make it second and miserable for Syracuse when we had all three timeouts got me thinking more about analytics. There’s no guarantee what would have happened but the most likely scenario was we get the ball back with one timeout left after they concede the possession.

I’d argue that this decision was a no-brainer. Less egregious than Miami not kneeling it last year to end the game but egregious nonetheless and potentially cost us the game (or at least a chance to tie it).

I wonder what’s stopping us from having assistance from analytics? It would at least show the data / odds for potential options and take some of the emotion out of it. We can build the iron man suit but can’t do this?

 

[MacJacket]

The awful decision by Key to not accept a penalty to make it second and miserable for Syracuse when we had all three timeouts got me thinking more about analytics. There’s no guarantee what would have happened but the most likely scenario was we get the ball back with one timeout left after they concede the possession.

I’d argue that this decision was a no-brainer. Less egregious than Miami not kneeling it last year to end the game but egregious nonetheless and potentially cost us the game (or at least a chance to tie it).

I wonder what’s stopping us from having assistance from analytics? It would at least show the data / odds for potential options and take some of the emotion out of it. We can build the iron man suit but can’t do this?

Confused me too. 2nd and 20+ is a long way to go, even on 2 downs. Fortunately Key will learn from this.

 

[Jacket05]

I think it was the right call in the moment. By declining you just had to make one more stop. Take the penalty and they have two more shots and they would have tons of field to play with on the first one. Obviously looking back it seems dumb but I think most coaches would have made the same call

 

[Thwg777]

Fortunately Key will learn from this.

I highly doubt this.

Last year, the ending to the Georgia Tech / Miami game was incredible.

Ironically, the very same day (10/7), Alabama led Texas A&M 26-20 with a fresh set of downs with less than two minutes on the clock and no TAMU TOs. Alabama, coached by the great Nick Saban, called live plays in lieu of just kneeling it. After an incompletion on first down, they ran twice, and then ran a 4th down play to finish milking the clock. Alabama won the game 26-20 so the ending was benign and largely forgotten.

My point is that coaches are fallible. Even the best. But I don’t understand why hard, emotionless data, isn’t used to assist more in decision-making.

 

[stinger78]

Ok have one more comment and I’m done: How bad is DJ Ukeleli?

 

[Southern psu fan]

We definitely should’ve backed them up inside their 10 yard line it would’ve made play calling more difficult for them. Dont know what Key was thinking there. It was a tough road game and the only thing we can do now is take this loss out on Duke and get back to winning.

 

[Root4GT]

Ok have one more comment and I’m done: How bad is DJ Ukeleli?

Bad

 

[buzzed]

They were ripping off chunk plays pretty much whenever they needed them. When the expected outcome is that they’ll likely make a play when they need it, it makes sense to give them only one chance and hope we pull off one play that goes against what had happened all day. I think there’s strong argument to decline the penalty. Hindsight is 20/20 of course and since it didn’t work it must have been wrong.

 

[Jacket05]

We definitely should’ve backed them up inside their 10 yard line it would’ve made play calling more difficult for them. Dont know what Key was thinking there. It was a tough road game and the only thing we can do now is take this loss out on Duke and get back to winning.

They were at the 25 so it would have been half the distance to the goal or on the 12.5 (basically 13 yard line when the center shifts the ball forward as most do). I still don't think it was worth losing the extra play clock time and time out with the added risk of giving them another play to get a first or even better 3rd down yardage. We should have been able to stop a 3rd and 10 and we deserved to lose for not being able to.

 

[33jacket]

Nah. The old school rule is you always take the penalty and make it further. Even if its two downs. Analytics have everyone over thinking. U HAVE to push them back.

 

[cpf2001]

Saying there’s a risk of them getting a shorter third down doesn’t really add up - if they gain 12+ yards to do that on third and ten they’ve already converted.

IMO they had probably an 80%+ chance to pick up a ten-ish gain, they’d been doing it all game. So make them do it twice in a row to bring that down to 64%+

 

[Root4GT]

Nah. The old school rule is you always take the penalty and make it further. Even if its two downs. Analytics have everyone over thinking. U HAVE to push them back.

Actually you just have to make a play on defense. We could not today!

 

[GetYourBuzzOn]

Not taking the penalty was egregious. He also declined a penalty that was just as bad vs FSU, but the results of the play were different. I don’t understand why we can’t be making data driven decisions based on expected value vs “gut football feelings.” We need every edge we can get.

 

[cpf2001]

The FSU call put them in fourth down and also was in a situation where they didn’t need to get the ball back immediately as crucially so I thought that was a good call

 

[Techfan02]

I agree with declining get the stop 2 possibly 3 TO and 2 min we win

 

[buzzed]

Saying there’s a risk of them getting a shorter third down doesn’t really add up - if they gain 12+ yards to do that on third and ten they’ve already converted.

IMO they had probably an 80%+ chance to pick up a ten-ish gain, they’d been doing it all game. So make them do it twice in a row to bring that down to 64%+

This is an oversimplification. What’s the probability they get all 22 yards on the first try? Or if they get most of it on 2nd and have 3rd and very short?

 

[bobongo]

Hindsight is 20/20. We stop them and not one single person objects to the decision. Not one.

 

[roadkill]

We’re arguing over marginal percentages in decision outcomes and calling the difference “egregious” and “colossal”. Y’all need to work on your superlatives. I suggest “Epic”.

 

[Thwg777]

Hindsight is 20/20. We stop them and not one single person objects to the decision. Not one.

I shared the Nick Saban example to prove that point. Both he and Cristobal made the exact same decisions (ironically on the same day) but one is a buffoon and the other went unnoticed.

We have a lot less margin to get away with making less than optimum decisions.

 

[cpf2001]

I

This is an oversimplification. What’s the probability they get all 22 yards on the first try? Or if they get most of it on 2nd and have 3rd and very short?

If the probability of gaining more than 15 on one play is so high as to be relevant than third and 10 is pretty hopeless anyway.

Which is part of why the fourth down play that got stuffed earlier kills me so much.