Analytics and our pitching

[78pike]

A complex topic at one level for sure but results always speak for themselves and are much less complex to understand. GT pitching has clearly seen a results-oriented downturn the past two years under DBo - team ERA being an obvious metric example.

Observation by many much smarter than me on this topic would indicate DBo's in-game situational awareness and related pitch calling is part of the issue impacting results. This would be consistent with DBo's lack of experience coaching this part of the game as the majority of his experience base has been focused on player development. The AJC interview with CDH at the end of the year last season pretty much pointed this out. Therefore DBo himself may be focusing too much on analytics vs eye-test situational awareness such as pitching to the weakness of a specific hitter in a specific situation. Most of the kids he's worked with really like him and feel he's teaching them well so it doesn’t appear to be a loss of player confidence in DBo.

Aside from potential DBo situational awareness issues, results show there has been a correlation to our new "pitching lab"/analytics and worse team ERA. This suggests player behavior changes created by something related to all the newer analytics that has clearly resulted in worse in-game player performance. I'm not smart enough to know exactly what that might be, but you're Kyle Wright example seems like a candidate for extrapolation with some of our pitchers...

Your conclusion above may very well be correct but my conjecture on the subject stems from several interviews over the past year where it was stated that DBo works a lot on correcting mechanics on the pitchers which takes time to get used to. I compare it to golfers (myself included) who change their swing mechanics and it takes time to get that muscle memory to change. In the case of our pitchers, I believe I have heard that much of the mechanics changes were being made to give the players longevity in their careers and to try to reduce the need for Tommy John (so many pitchers come out of high school being way overworked and along with bad mechanics their arms are ready to fall off). Hopefully, if that is what is happening, then the long term results will start to show with this being year three of DBo's tenure and our pitchers having one or two years to absorb the changes in those mechanics. Some players adapt to that much faster than others. I realize that has nothing to do with DBo's in game pitch calling and if that is a reason for the bloated team ERA then I would expect and hope that he would improve in that area over time. In Dbo's defense I will say this, the velocity and spin rates we are seeing from our pitching staff has improved immensely since he has been here and again I think that comes as a result of concentrating on their mechanics. That being said, it is about time that we see the results improve in games and now is the time to see those results.

As an aside, I would love to hear from Mr. Olkerholm on this subject if he is still lurking around this board. It would be beneficial for me, as a fan, to hear from someone who has been involved in this process with his son under DBo to hear his insight on this subject. I realize Christian left after a short time with us for reasons that we don't need to know, but working with DBo he had to have walked away with some insight.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Your conclusion above may very well be correct but my conjecture on the subject stems from several interviews over the past year where it was stated that DBo works a lot on correcting mechanics on the pitchers which takes time to get used to. I compare it to golfers (myself included) who change their swing mechanics and it takes time to get that muscle memory to change. In the case of our pitchers, I believe I have heard that much of the mechanics changes were being made to give the players longevity in their careers and to try to reduce the need for Tommy John (so many pitchers come out of high school being way overworked and along with bad mechanics their arms are ready to fall off). Hopefully, if that is what is happening, then the long term results will start to show with this being year three of DBo's tenure and our pitchers having one or two years to absorb the changes in those mechanics. Some players adapt to that much faster than others. I realize that has nothing to do with DBo's in game pitch calling and if that is a reason for the bloated team ERA then I would expect and hope that he would improve in that area over time. In Dbo's defense I will say this, the velocity and spin rates we are seeing from our pitching staff has improved immensely since he has been here and again I think that comes as a result of concentrating on their mechanics. That being said, it is about time that we see the results improve in games and now is the time to see those results.

As an aside, I would love to hear from Mr. Olkerholm on this subject if he is still lurking around this board. It would be beneficial for me, as a fan, to hear from someone who has been involved in this process with his son under DBo to hear his insight on this subject. I realize Christian left after a short time with us for reasons that we don't need to know, but working with DBo he had to have walked away with some insight.

What you are saying about changing a few pitchers mechanics makes sense. But we had 22 pitchers on roster last year.

I think the area for DBo growth is in two main areas from interviews and this board. First learning how to coach college kids and second pitch calling in college.

Regardless of the cause, what matters is the team era and it was awful last year. A small part was on bad defense but not most of the underperformance imho.

 

[78pike]

What you are saying about changing a few pitchers mechanics makes sense. But we had 22 pitchers on roster last year.

I think the area for DBo growth is in two main areas from interviews and this board. First learning how to coach college kids and second pitch calling in college.

Regardless of the cause, what matters is the team era and it was awful last year. A small part was on bad defense but not most of the underperformance imho.

I totally agree, whether it is pitch calling or mechanics it is the results that matter. With mechanics I am referring to much more than just arm slot. Finger placement, leg kick, weight distribution, etc. all come into play. Another factor is recruiting. Someone more knowledgeable than me can comment on this, but it seems to me we are signing more hire rated pitchers under DBo than we did in the years just prior to his arrival. Regardless, this year is critical for him, in my opinion, to show growth and results from the pitchers we have.

 

[GTRambler]

Perhaps switch up things and let Wieters call the in-game pitches, while DBo remains as pitching (development) coach.

Might improve the team’s ERA this way?

 

[GTRambler]

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[randerto]

Perhaps switch up things and let Wieters call the in-game pitches, while DBo remains as pitching (development) coach.

Might improve the team’s ERA this way?

Couldn't agree more. Guessing this won't happen due to egos involved but DBo already had two seasons to get this part of the game figured out and GT shouldn't suffer through a third season watching DBo "develop" this part of his game when we have an an MLB all-star level pitch caller on staff. This decision is on CDH - let's watch and see what happens but love your suggestion...

 

[eokerholm]

I'm still a fan and around.
Christian has friends on the team and we're rooting for them. Great to see KC (East Cobb teammate like Logan) coming into his own this year.

I've mentioned this before, the tweaks take time.
The guys were recruited, for a reason, and for stuff they had and were used to, muscle-memory wise. Tweaks in mechanics take tons and tons of time, repetition, practice to have confidence to throw that pitch the new way - in a game. This isn't an over night success, but yes, the mechanics, arm/joint torque, all that stuff can look great on paper and the computer, but you have to "relearn" or adjust what these guys have been doing for YEARS to get to GT....to throw the new way, angle, or grip.... you have to give them time to adjust to the tweaks (if they're tweaked) some guys aren't/haven't been.

Biggest things are Repetition and Confidence.... Confidence first in the bull pen, then during practice, then on field.... all taking time.....

 

[GTNavyNuke]

I'm still a fan and around.
Christian has friends on the team and we're rooting for them. Great to see KC (East Cobb teammate like Logan) coming into his own this year.

I've mentioned this before, the tweaks take time.
The guys were recruited, for a reason, and for stuff they had and were used to, muscle-memory wise. Tweaks in mechanics take tons and tons of time, repetition, practice to have confidence to throw that pitch the new way - in a game. This isn't an over night success, but yes, the mechanics, arm/joint torque, all that stuff can look great on paper and the computer, but you have to "relearn" or adjust what these guys have been doing for YEARS to get to GT....to throw the new way, angle, or grip.... you have to give them time to adjust to the tweaks (if they're tweaked) some guys aren't/haven't been.

Biggest things are Repetition and Confidence.... Confidence first in the bull pen, then during practice, then on field.... all taking time.....

Glad to see it!

I guess it's good for the players long term that DBo is tweaking their mechanics. But bad for short term while adjustments are being made.

Sort of comes down to doing right by the players or short terms win / losses. I wish we could have both!

 

[78pike]

Glad to see it!

I guess it's good for the players long term that DBo is tweaking their mechanics. But bad for short term while adjustments are being made.

Sort of comes down to doing right by the players or short terms win / losses. I wish we could have both!

But I also think the tweaking he does is what attracts a lot of recruits. Keep in mind, most recruits are thinking long term themselves. They all think they are capable of making it to the League. In that respect I think the DBo hire is reaping some rewards. As you read above, this stuff takes some time. Now that we are in his third year I'm hoping we start to see some of the benefits from this type of approach. I tend to be a "glass half full" kinda guy so I remain hopeful. I would also hope all of our coaches are smart enough to realize they can learn a lot from Matt Wieters experience and take advantage of that whether it is calling pitches, catching or hitting. He brings a lot to the table and I think could prove valuable in recruiting.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

But I also think the tweaking he does is what attracts a lot of recruits. Keep in mind, most recruits are thinking long term themselves. They all think they are capable of making it to the League. In that respect I think the DBo hire is reaping some rewards. As you read above, this stuff takes some time. Now that we are in his third year I'm hoping we start to see some of the benefits from this type of approach. I tend to be a "glass half full" kinda guy so I remain hopeful. I would also hope all of our coaches are smart enough to realize they can learn a lot from Matt Wieters experience and take advantage of that whether it is calling pitches, catching or hitting. He brings a lot to the table and I think could prove valuable in recruiting.

If you haven't noticed, I'm sometimes a glass half empty and evaporating type of guy.

But it is fair to also point out that the first two years were abnormal from development due to COVID. So there is hope (although evaporating).

 

[FredJacket]

Are we over-analyzing about analyzing?

 

[GT33]

Are we over-analyzing about analyzing?

Someone should formally study that

 

[57jacket]

My biggest gripe with any pitcher: Do not walk a man with bases empty. Throw it underhanded if necessary.

 

[JacketOff]

My biggest gripe with any pitcher: Do not walk a man with bases empty. Throw it underhanded if necessary.

I don’t agree with this. It’s definitely a case by case basis.

I’m college there are absolutely hitters you just cannot afford to walk because they couldn’t hit them selves out of a wet paper bag. There are also college hitter you cannot let beat you. 3-0, 3-1 to the clean-up hitter with 15 bombs on the year? Don’t give him anything to hit. Make him get himself out or just put him on first. A walk there is way better than a home run or a double. That guy probably can’t run well anyway. He’s an easy force out when he’s on base.

The guys you can’t afford to walk most of them time are the 1, 8, and 9 hitters. Lead off man is probably a good hitter that doesn’t have a ton of juice. A walk and a single do the same amount of damage. Make him beat you, and if he does damage tip your hat to him. Most college 8/9 hitters are just placeholders in the lineup. Sometimes they run well, but pose minimal threat at the plate. DO NOT walk these guys, but you can definitely handle a walk to the heart of the order.

 

[57jacket]

I don’t agree with this. It’s definitely a case by case basis.

I’m college there are absolutely hitters you just cannot afford to walk because they couldn’t hit them selves out of a wet paper bag. There are also college hitter you cannot let beat you. 3-0, 3-1 to the clean-up hitter with 15 bombs on the year? Don’t give him anything to hit. Make him get himself out or just put him on first. A walk there is way better than a home run or a double. That guy probably can’t run well anyway. He’s an easy force out when he’s on base.

The guys you can’t afford to walk most of them time are the 1, 8, and 9 hitters. Lead off man is probably a good hitter that doesn’t have a ton of juice. A walk and a single do the same amount of damage. Make him beat you, and if he does damage tip your hat to him. Most college 8/9 hitters are just placeholders in the lineup. Sometimes they run well, but pose minimal threat at the plate. DO NOT walk these guys, but you can definitely handle a walk to the heart of the order.

You are somewhat correct, but there are no more than 2 of those dangerous HR threats on a team. I understand intentional walks. We sometimes walk the poorest hitters in a leadoff position. My HS coach would have pulled me if I walked a poor hitter.

 

[JacketOff]

You are somewhat correct, but there are no more than 2 of those dangerous HR threats on a team. I understand intentional walks. We sometimes walk the poorest hitters in a leadoff position. My HS coach would have pulled me if I walked a poor hitter.

I never said anything about intentional walks. Not letting a team’s best power hitter beat you in an obvious hitter’s count is not an intentional walk.

Last year, Lousivllle had players with 11, 18, 19, and 23 HRs. That’s 4 legitimate home run threats.

Virginia Tech had 7 players with 12 or more HRs

Tennessee had 8 players with at least 10 HRs, and 4 with more than 15.

Obviously some teams are more dangerous than others. But when you have legitimate power threats at the plate, a bases empty walk is hardly the worst thing that could happen. Especially if you get behind in the count early. Those more dangerous teams make it way more important to not give free bases to the select few hitters in the lineup who don’t lose as great of a threat.

 

[57jacket]

I never said anything about intentional walks. Not letting a team’s best power hitter beat you in an obvious hitter’s count is not an intentional walk.

Last year, Lousivllle had players with 11, 18, 19, and 23 HRs. That’s 4 legitimate home run threats.

Virginia Tech had 7 players with 12 or more HRs

Tennessee had 8 players with at least 10 HRs, and 4 with more than 15.

Obviously some teams are more dangerous than others. But when you have legitimate power threats at the plate, a bases empty walk is hardly the worst thing that could happen. Especially if you get behind in the count early. Those more dangerous teams make it way more important to not give free bases to the select few hitters in the lineup who don’t lose as great of a threat.

So are saying, for a team with 3 power hitters in a row, we should walk all 3?? LOL

 

[randerto]

I'm still a fan and around.
Christian has friends on the team and we're rooting for them. Great to see KC (East Cobb teammate like Logan) coming into his own this year.

I've mentioned this before, the tweaks take time.
The guys were recruited, for a reason, and for stuff they had and were used to, muscle-memory wise. Tweaks in mechanics take tons and tons of time, repetition, practice to have confidence to throw that pitch the new way - in a game. This isn't an over night success, but yes, the mechanics, arm/joint torque, all that stuff can look great on paper and the computer, but you have to "relearn" or adjust what these guys have been doing for YEARS to get to GT....to throw the new way, angle, or grip.... you have to give them time to adjust to the tweaks (if they're tweaked) some guys aren't/haven't been.

Biggest things are Repetition and Confidence.... Confidence first in the bull pen, then during practice, then on field.... all taking time.....

Genuinely appreciate you adding your perspective as it's respected. However, one must also acknowledge GT finished ranked #227 in the nation and next to last in the ACC in team ERA. So GT is failing relative to most other D1 schools as measured by actual pitching results. GT isn't the only D1 program making pitching mechanic tweaks for their players. Results relative to competition needs to drastically improve this season.

 

[JacketOff]

So are saying, for a team with 3 power hitters in a row, we should walk all 3?? LOL

That’s not even close to what I’m saying. Can you read?

 

[CINCYMETJACKET]

It's nice to know that we're not the only program that has the problem of turning prospects into "did not meet expectations" by "tweaking" something...

MMO Top 30 Mets Prospects: No. 9, Mike Vasil - Metsmerized Online

Starting with Matt Allan being ranked at 11, our staff has dedicated a more detailed analysis of the top prospects in the New York Mets farm system. At number 9, we take a look at another right-handed starting pitching prospect who slid in the draft but who still possesses a high ceiling. No. 9...

metsmerizedonline.com

The money line:

"Back in 2018, Mike Vasil withdrew his name from the draft despite being a top-50 prospect at the time. The decision proved to be rather costly for him as he struggled at the University of Virginia and became an eighth rounder in 2021. The good news for the Mets and Vasil is the Mets have been able to undo a lot of the changes that caused Vasil to struggle at UVA."