Among the Best on 3rd Down; Even Better on 4th?

[DrJacket]

Article citing best 3rd down conversion rates in major college football over the last 3 years.

We just had a good laugh at our house. We're guessing that CPJ must surely have the best 4th down conversion rate in the country! (...among coaches with more than 1 or 2 attempts each year)

http://coachingsearch.com/article?a=Chart-The-top-3rd-down-playcallers-over-the-past-3-years

 

[AE 87]

We were #29 in 2012, #86 in 2013, and #9 in 2014 in 4th down conversion %.

 

[DrJacket]

What I had hoped this would stimulate was some conversation around our tendency to "go for it" on 4th down. My perception is that makes us more-than-unique in college football. 4th down is almost an automatic punt situation for most teams unless their is only a yard or so to go, and/or they are desperate for a score.

 

[Huntrey]

We were #29 in 2012, #86 in 2013, and #9 in 2014 in 4th down conversion %.

Yeah, bit still

 

[DrJacket]

Yeah, bit still

Exactly. I don't think many people do with 4th down all that WE do with 4th down. When our offense is running in such a way that we have the confidence to play for 4 downs rather than just 3-- it has to also affect the other team's defensive mentality.

 

[gtg936g]

One caveat to our offense is that we force opponents to go for it on 4th down because we are ball hogs. When we do this we are getting them out of their element.

 

[AE 87]

The 4th down conversion % rankings I cited were calculated from attempts not 4th downs, ie including punts. When I get my computer back, I'll check that.

 

[DrJacket]

I think it would be interesting to see how our 4th down conversion rate compares when "punt" is factored out. However...I don't have a clue how to actually do such a comparison.

 

[dressedcheeseside]

I bet we rank the highest in average distance to go on 4th down attempts when you factor out desperation end of half/game scenarios.

 

[DrJacket]

I bet we rank the highest in average distance to go on 4th down attempts when you factor out desperation end of half/game scenarios.

This.

I think you guys have heard me tell this once before. But, it bears repeating. We were sitting in the predominantly Tech section (end zone) at the ACC Championship up in Charlotte. We did have a small intermingling of Fla. State people. Folks were getting along well, but there was some smack being talked back-and-forth. One Fla. State guy was particularly loud and boisterous.

They got us in a third-and-long situation. Probably 3rd-and-7 or so. Tech folks were cheering and watching. During the huddle, the loud Fla. State guy stood up and turned around..."One more STOP!! All we gonna do is STOP you one more time and take that punt." In unison, everyone kind of chuckled. "What are y'all laughing about?! We got you!"

Someone said, "You don't understand. We'll run for part of it here. And, we'll run again on 4th down for the rest of it. We play for 4 downs--not 3." He looked like he had been slapped in the face.

 

[dressedcheeseside]

This.

I think you guys have heard me tell this once before. But, it bears repeating. We were sitting in the predominantly Tech section (end zone) at the ACC Championship up in Charlotte. We did have a small intermingling of Fla. State people. Folks were getting along well, but there was some smack being talked back-and-forth. One Fla. State guy was particularly loud and boisterous.

They got us in a third-and-long situation. Probably 3rd-and-7 or so. Tech folks were cheering and watching. During the huddle, the loud Fla. State guy stood up and turned around..."One more STOP!! All we gonna do is STOP you one more time and take that punt." In unison, everyone kind of chuckled. "What are y'all laughing about?! We got you!"

Someone said, "You don't understand. We'll run for part of it here. And, we'll run again on 4th down for the rest of it. We play for 4 downs--not 3." He looked like he had been slapped in the face.

Great story! So what happened after that?

 

[DrJacket]

I'm racking my brain to recall if we actually DID convert on that one. Certainly hope we did. He's the same guy who yelled over his shoulder, "When you boys gonna PASS the ball? Y'all ain't thrown one pass!!"

I said, "Oh, we'll throw eventually. It's just not TIME to throw yet. Your defense will tell us when it's time to throw. Don't worry."

He just shook his head.

 

[AE 87]

We had 3rd and 7+ 3 times, if I counted correctly. 2 punts 1 int. We converted a 3rd and 6.

 

[danny daniel]

Exactly. I don't think many people do with 4th down all that WE do with 4th down. When our offense is running in such a way that we have the confidence to play for 4 downs rather than just 3-- it has to also affect the other team's defensive mentality.

And it is not just 4th down that is important in our offense. It affects our 3rd down play calling knowing what we are likely to do on 4th (we do not have to go for all of the yardage on 3rd which limits your play selection). It probably also relieves some of the pressure of having to make all the yardage in one try (it's a "lets get it on third but if not we will get the rest on 4th" versus "we got to get it all now").

 

[AE 87]

We were #11 in going for it on 4th down, and #4 (#2 among P5) in converting 4th downs (including punts). Baylor was significantly better.