ACC vs Big12

[RonJohn]

It isn't over yet. But for all of the social media hype about how the Big12 was the third best football conference and that the ACC wasn't better than a G5 conference: It looks like the ACC has a real chance to get 2 teams in the CFP, while the Big12 will only get their champion in. In addition to that, if Boise State wins against Oregon State and the Mountain West championship game, the Big12 champion won't even get a first round bye. They might not even get a home game in the first round.

Before people say I am crazy that the ACC has a chance to get two in:

The Big10 will likely get 4 teams in barring an upset in the final week.
The SEC will likely get 3 in. Texas is probably in no matter what. Tenn needs to beat Vandy and then will be in. The mutts need to beat us, then are likely in. (or lose to us but win the conference championship) A&M needs to win the conference to get in.
ND is likely in if they beat USC.

That leaves 4 spots. G5 only has Boise in the top 12 and if they lose a game they will drop down, so G5 will only get one spot. Big12 is a BIG mess at the moment, and only their conference champion is likely to get in.

That leaves 2 spots. ACC champion will get in. If Miami beats Syracuse and SMU beats Cal, then they will play in the conference championship game. The two loss loser of that game is probably playing an away game in the first round. There are only two things I can see that would upset that. If SC beats Clemson, they might get in. If A&M beats TX and wins the SEC Championship game, then the SEC would likely get 4 teams in. (Unless GT beats the mutts, then they lose to A&M in the championship game also to have 4 losses.)

 

[Oldgoldandwhite]

I’m pulling for 3. SMU, The U, and Clemson if everything breaks right. The ACC needs to win all the rivalry games. I know it’s a tall order. We need a miracle on ice.

 

[RamblinRed]

Pat Forde's Forty Yard Dash, talking about the CFP.
Basically uses the March Madness bubble as his template.
Says that through all the chaos the CFP has largely cleared with 13 teams for 12 spots and 1 potential bid stealer - Clemson is his bubble team and TX A&M the potential bid stealer.
1 G5 bid
1 B12 Bid
ND
1-3 ACC Bids
3-4 SEC bids
4 B1G bids

Forde-Yard Dash: Making Sense of College Football Playoff Scenarios

After an eventful Week 13, the bubble is all but gone and there are 13 options for 12 places. Here is what is at stake in each conference.

www.si.com

For ACC to have a shot a 3 you need SMU, Miami, and Clemson to all win this week and then a good competitive ACC CG between SMU and Miami. You also need either IN or ND to lose and you need A&M not to make it to the SEC CG and win. Not terribly likely scenario, but there you go.

 

[stinger78]

I think it’s a week too early. If Clem can win convincingly against USCe, they may jump Indiana and Boise. In that case, whose spot does the B12 winner take? Since the B1G would have 4, fairness would dictate they go first.

I know, since when has the CFP committee been fair?

 

[Northeast Stinger]

I think it’s a week too early. If Clem can win convincingly against USCe, they may jump Indiana and Boise. In that case, whose spot does the B12 winner take? Since the B1G would have 4, fairness would dictate they go first.

I know, since when has the CFP committee been fair?

Who knows what criteria they will use this year? I know the rules are (theoretically) laid out but there’s always some arbitrary unspoken rule that changes year to year like TV ratings, injuries, perceived strength of conference or fan base.

 

[MWBATL]

Who knows what criteria they will use this year? I know the rules are (theoretically) laid out but there’s always some arbitrary unspoken rule that changes year to year like TV ratings, injuries, perceived strength of conference or fan base.

The unspoken rule is usually ‘which teams will bring us the most $$$$$’.

 

[stinger78]

The unspoken rule is usually ‘which teams will bring us the SECheat the most $$$$$’.

FTFY

 

[forensicbuzz]

Pat Forde's Forty Yard Dash, talking about the CFP.
Basically uses the March Madness bubble as his template.
Says that through all the chaos the CFP has largely cleared with 13 teams for 12 spots and 1 potential bid stealer - Clemson is his bubble team and TX A&M the potential bid stealer.
1 G5 bid
1 B12 Bid
ND
1-3 ACC Bids
3-4 SEC bids
4 B1G bids

Forde-Yard Dash: Making Sense of College Football Playoff Scenarios

After an eventful Week 13, the bubble is all but gone and there are 13 options for 12 places. Here is what is at stake in each conference.

www.si.com

For ACC to have a shot a 3 you need SMU, Miami, and Clemson to all win this week and then a good competitive ACC CG between SMU and Miami. You also need either IN or ND to lose and you need A&M not to make it to the SEC CG and win. Not terribly likely scenario, but there you go.

I think all of those things are not only possible, but I would say likely. SMU, UM, Clemson should all be favored. Clemson has the toughest test, but I think USCe is not as good as others think. USC could beat ND, but Purdue not likely to beat Indiana (unless they look past them). a&m is likely to lose to Texas, which keeps them from the SEC CG. The IN/ND loss is the toughest part of it, but all are well within the realm of possibility, and I'd say most probability.

 

[stinger78]

If Clem wins, it will all come down to who the committee will punt to accommodate the B12 champ, presumably ASU - Indiana (11-1) from a 4-entry B1G, or Clemson (10-2), from a 3-entry ACC.

 

[forensicbuzz]

If Clem wins, it will all come down to who the committee will punt to accommodate the B12 champ, presumably ASU - Indiana (11-1) from a 4-entry B1G, or Clemson (10-2), from a 3-entry ACC.

Unless ND loses or Indiana loses.

 

[CEB]

Unless ND loses or Indiana loses.

ND was 6th last week behind IU (who lost) and PSU (who snuck out of Minn with a 1-point win). I would not be shocked to see the Irish at 4 this week. Outside of getting manhandled by USC, I don’t see them falling out. I think they are a lock as soon as the updated ranking comes out.

As much as I would LOVE to see a Purdue upset, I don’t even think this game will be close. It’s in Bloomington and the only bad look for Indiana is that they are 25 point favorites and have a lot of room to “underachieve” relative to the line. Never know how they will react to the tOSU loss, but it would have to be a violent reaction to make this close
On the other side, my Purdue fan father suspects the boilers to have a decent amount of attrition due to transfers. Some of them may be looking ahead and already opting out. Total speculation on his part but he has a far better read on their situation than I do. I hope he’s wrong… I’d like to think they play strong against an in state rival but who knows these days Maybe there is an “addition by subtraction” element to it also? Let’s hope!
Add also that IU has no reason to “look ahead.” They have no conf championship opponent and nothing else to distract from the task at hand. Purdue has won 5 of the last 6 and holds a pretty big margin in the series. I suspect a lot of Hoosier football frustrations get taken out on a poor Purdue squad this weekend

 

[roadkill]

Clemson has the toughest test, but I think USCe is not as good as others think.

8-3 USCe is a good team this year despite being picked to finish 13th in conference. While the shine is now off of their “good” losses to Bama and Ole Piss, their Bama and LSU losses were for a combined total of 5 points. All but one of their conference wins have been by 3+ scores. Clemson will have their hands full in this rivalry game.

 

[billga99]

I think 2 teams from the ACC is all you can realistically expect. There is way too much favoritism towards the B10 and SEC to expect any more than that. Clemson would have to destroy USC which I don't think is in the cards.

 

[RamblinRed]

I think 2 teams from the ACC is all you can realistically expect. There is way too much favoritism towards the B10 and SEC to expect any more than that. Clemson would have to destroy USC which I don't think is in the cards.

Is it possible - sure, is it likely - heck no.

An awful lot would have to go right for Clemson to get in as an at-large.
First, they have to beat SCe.
Next, TN has to lose to Vandy.
Next, Indiana has to lose to Purdue and/or ND has to lose to USC.
Finally, both Miami and SMU have to win next weekend and play a relatively competitive ACC CG.
L'ville beating KY would also be a good thing, though not necessary compared to the others.


If the ACC gets at least 2 teams in though I would be pretty happy. With all the crap the ACC has taken the last 6-8 months it would be a very good outcome to have 2 teams get in to the CFP.

 

[RonJohn]

If the ACC gets at least 2 teams in though I would be pretty happy. With all the crap the ACC has taken the last 6-8 months it would be a very good outcome to have 2 teams get in to the CFP.

Plus the Big12 not getting a first round bye, and not even getting a first round home game.

 

[RamblinRed]

Plus the Big12 not getting a first round bye, and not even getting a first round home game.

I thought about that one, but it is still very possible for the B12 to get a byr. All they need is for Boise St to lose. I think if that happens then the B12 Champion will get a bye.

 

[RonJohn]

I thought about that one, but it is still very possible for the B12 to get a byr. All they need is for Boise St to lose. I think if that happens then the B12 Champion will get a bye.

For the last several weeks, I haven't seen any of the YouTube people who were declaring that the Big12 was far better than the ACC anywhere in my feeds. I haven't seen any Twitter posts about how great the Big12 is. It looks like all of those people have gone into hiding.

 

[stinger78]

OK, so the top 12 teams in the AP are:
Oregon, Ohio State,Texas, Penn State, Notre Dame, UGAg, Tennessee, Miami, SMU, Indiana, Boise, Clemson.

Who goes if, say, Arizona State gets an autobid? We’re saying it’s a Clemson team that’s just knocked off the #16 team?

I agree, that’s most likely, the way it’s been done before. However, looking at relative schedules, and the three B1G teams already in, it should be Indiana getting left out. Finally, with respect to $$$, you can’t tell me that Indiana is worth more than Clemson.

 

[forensicbuzz]

8-3 USCe is a good team this year despite being picked to finish 13th in conference. While the shine is now off of their “good” losses to Bama and Ole Piss, their Bama and LSU losses were for a combined total of 5 points. All but one of their conference wins have been by 3+ scores. Clemson will have their hands full in this rivalry game.

I have a buddy who went to USCe and we've been jawing all season. I've watched most of their games so I have a proper understanding of who they are. I'm confident we could take them. I know Clemson can take them. They have serious holes. But, they could also win without it being a huge surprise.